The Yankees have been pursuing a left-handed nook outfielder all winter. They’ve telegraphed their willingness to commerce, and commerce a number of pitchers at that, to get their goal. Final night time, they did what they got down to do – no less than, so long as you’re prepared to take my phrases precisely actually. Positive, he’s not Juan Soto, however Alex Verdugo is now a Yankee, after the crew traded Richard Fitts, Greg Weissert, and Nicholas Judice to the Crimson Sox.
For Yankees followers who’ve been following the sound and fury round a Soto commerce within the final week, buying Verdugo virtually appears like a joke performed by Brian Cashman. “Oh, you wished to enhance our offense and get us some extra left-handed hitting? Right here you go! I did precisely what you requested for!” It’s not so completely different than your dad and mom telling you that you just don’t want to purchase Fortunate Charms on the grocery retailer as a result of you might have some at dwelling, solely to see a field of Generically Lucky Oat-Shapes within the pantry while you run inside to verify.
Is that unfair to Verdugo? In all probability. He’s a superbly serviceable participant, an enormous improve on what the Yankees ran out within the nook outfield final 12 months. Oswaldo Cabrera, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Everson Pereira, and Billy McKinney every logged no less than 100 PA in left. Cabrera additionally chipped in 100 PA in proper, as did an injury-hampered Giancarlo Stanton. Jake Bauers checked in with 99 PA. Franchy Cordero contributed 71 PA of his personal. In mixture, even with a transcendent 222 PA from Decide, Yankees nook outfielders produced 0.7 WAR in 1,290 PA final 12 months. 2.6 of that WAR got here from Decide, which implies the remainder of the gang chipped in a whopping -1.9 WAR.
Verdugo is quite a bit higher than that. He’s fairly near a mean hitter – he sports activities a 105 wRC+ for his profession, proper in keeping with his projections for 2024, and his wRC+ over his four-year stint in Boston can also be 105. He doesn’t strike out a lot, takes his share of walks, and customarily places up low double-digit homers yearly. He’s a scratch defender in proper discipline with a cannon for an arm. The Yankees struggled mightily to discipline a reliable outfield final 12 months; Verdugo is the very image of unpretentious competence.
One factor that Verdugo is emphatically not is Juan Soto. That’s true of just about each outfielder in baseball proper now, however not each outfielder in baseball received acquired by the Yankees after they publicly flirted with the Padres. Soto received the 2022 dwelling run derby; Verdugo will virtually definitely by no means get invited to take part in a single, and even when he did, he’d put up a sub-Mookie Betts efficiency. He’s simply not an influence hitter, although Yankee Stadium’s brief proper discipline porch ought to give him a small increase there.
When you’re prepared to perform a little little bit of upside forecasting, the stadium change and an accompanying change in strategy might increase his manufacturing from above common to glorious. As a lefty with middling energy, he’s a primary candidate to loop homers over that brief wall, and he has the sort of bat management (94th percentile contact fee) that makes me assume he might elevate and pull the ball extra if he set his thoughts to it. I’m not saying he’ll flip into Isaac Paredes, but when he can sacrifice a little bit of BABIP for an additional 5-10 homers, his offense turns into rather more intriguing.
Nonetheless, that’s me dreaming about greatest case situations. Within the current day, Verdugo isn’t a star. He’s the sort of man you herald to encompass your stars, and the prospects the Yankees despatched again to Boston replicate that actuality. Weissert is the one one of many three to have made the majors thus far; he’s logged 31 innings within the final two years on the bullpen shuttle. He’s a traditional sinker/sweeper sort, the sort that appear to fill out half the bullpens in baseball today. He initiatives in that position with the Crimson Sox; he won’t make the crew out of spring coaching, however he’ll definitely match into the combo sooner or later. Stockpiling Weissert-esque arms is simply good enterprise; you by no means know when a secondary pitch will click on or a mechanical adjustment will add game-breaking velo and switch your fifth reliever right into a lockdown choice.
The true headliner of the deal might be Fitts, a 2021 draftee who hit Double-A in 2023. He instructions a rising fastball properly and held his 93-95 mph velocity over a 150-inning workload. It’s the sort of pitch that gives basis for a starter’s arsenal; it’s not a type of flat-plane invisiballs that flip batters into pretzels, but it surely has good condition and he retains it out of the middle of the zone whereas peppering the higher boundary of the zone. However don’t take it from me; right here’s Eric Longenhagen’s up to date report on him:
“Fitts spent most of his school profession within the bullpen, however, because the Yankees steadily do, he was moved into the beginning rotation as a professional and he has ascended via the minors with little resistance. Fitts labored a whopping 152 innings in 2023, 50 innings greater than he did in 2022, and never solely maintained his velocity all through your entire season however had somewhat little bit of a bump. He started his final begin of the 12 months pumping 93-96 mph fastballs previous Double-A hitters. There’s nonetheless not a 3rd pitch right here however Fitts checks each different beginning pitcher scouting field. Plus-plus fastball command and a tough two-plane slider give him two whiff-getting weapons, and any fear about stamina or command leftover from his pre-draft look has evaporated. The Yankees record goes to be one of many first revealed and Fitts would have been a forty five FV arm ranked comparatively excessive in that system. His 40-man timeline places him on tempo to debut in 2025. If he can develop a 3rd viable providing in 2024, he’ll be a high 100 prospect subsequent offseason, however he’s polished sufficient as a strike-thrower to debut in 2024 if the BoSox want him.”
Judice is a distant third by way of the gamers Boston acquired on this deal, a towering reliever who the Yankees drafted this 12 months and who hasn’t but made his skilled debut. He’s a clean slate quite than a completed product. Once more, right here’s Eric:
“Judice is a school projection arm within the excessive, an eighth spherical pick of Louisiana-Monroe (they’re the Warhawks, doncha know) who’s constructed like an Andean condor at 6-foot-8 and 230 kilos. Judice sat 92-93 and peaked within the 95-97 mph vary in 2023. His cross-bodied, low-slot supply might in all probability use an overhaul, and Judice might stand to make higher use of his decrease physique all through his supply. His present heater has equal elements rise and run, his mid-80s slider has pretty appreciable sweep. There’s attention-grabbing uncooked materials right here, it simply wants love from knowledgeable participant growth division to be of main league high quality. Judice is an older sleeper and developmental flier greater than he’s a real prospect at this level.”
And should you’re all for seeing what an Andean condor would appear to be on a baseball discipline, right here he’s within the Cape Cod league:
The final piece of the Crimson Sox return for Alex Verdugo is RHP Nicholas Judice.
6’8 aid arm that was drafted within the eighth spherical this 12 months. Has added weight courting again to school together with his stuff persevering with to tick up.
Presently sits within the mid to low 90s.pic.twitter.com/I9aSYzyLfo
— Tyler Milliken ?? (@tylermilliken_) December 6, 2023
In mixture, the return for Verdugo is fairly near what Michael Baumann forecasted earlier this offseason. The Crimson Sox aren’t getting anybody who they will plug into their long-term plans, however they’re getting a number of bites on the pitching apple. If Fitts provides a 3rd plus pitch, he would possibly make this commerce appear to be a coup for Boston, however you may’t rely on that occuring, and the Yankees are getting a sure-thing main league contributor in change. From a price perspective, this deal feels honest for everybody concerned.
Certainly, the Yankees don’t see Verdugo as the one transfer they should make. That simply wouldn’t monitor; their offense was a whole shambles final 12 months, and upgrading one place from grim to acceptable will hardly flip that round by itself. This isn’t rocket science; you don’t attempt to commerce for Juan Soto in case your offseason plan is to improve just a few marginal positions and name it a day.
The difficulty, then, is the sequencing. When you begin out by getting Soto, each transfer you make thereafter can be seen in that gentle. When you go within the reverse order, each transfer you make will get in comparison with bringing in Soto till you truly do. Theoretically, Verdugo places the Yankees in a roster bind, as a result of they solely have two nook outfield spots and the DH to suit Stanton, Decide, Verdugo, and Soto. However there are methods round that; Decide can play heart, as Aaron Boone recently confirmed, or the crew can part Stanton out of their plans. He was a part of the issue quite than the answer final 12 months, and could be restricted to DH at this level in his profession. Heck, they might even commerce Verdugo as a part of the Soto deal; the Padres are available in the market for cost-controlled main leaguers, so possibly this may simply find yourself as a three-team commerce with extra steps.
The Yankees can’t be accomplished with their offseason right here, even excluding their pursuit of Soto. They want extra infield depth and extra damage safety for his or her starters, notably after giving up pitching on this deal. They’ll seemingly need to commerce from the key league roster, too, which would require patching one other gap. However this deal received’t cease any of that from taking place. If the Yankees do what they’ve been saying they’ll do, everybody will look again on this commerce as a humorous little facet word, the time Brian Cashman trolled the followers with a Canal Avenue model of Juan Soto earlier than buying and selling for the real article.
That does put some strain on the crew, although. In the event that they don’t get Soto, and don’t win the Shohei Ohtani sweepstakes, this commerce will look atrocious. The entire offseason would look fairly dangerous even with out a lightning rod for criticism, however getting a task participant who strains up in the identical place the place you publicly admitted you want a star is the right storm for a fan revolt. I feel this commerce is completely affordable for the Yankees – in the event that they exit and maintain enterprise. In the event that they don’t, this commerce will find yourself as a referendum on every thing that the crew ought to have accomplished however didn’t.
