Xander Bogaerts’ Shoulder Fracture Adds to His Rough Season

Xander Bogaerts‘ first season as a second baseman hasn’t gone as deliberate. He’s struggled mightily on the plate to this point, and whereas he’s fared higher defensively, on Monday he suffered a fracture in his left shoulder whereas diving for a ball. He may miss a few months, leaving the Padres — who regardless of going simply 27-26 to this point at present occupy the third NL Wild Card spot — to fend with out him.

The damage occurred in the course of the first sport of Monday’s doubleheader in Atlanta. With the bases loaded within the third inning, Bogaerts ranged to his left to attempt to cease a Ronald Acuña Jr. grounder. He dove in time to get his glove on the ball, however he landed laborious, and awkwardly. He instantly started writhing on the bottom and will solely wrist-flip the ball to shortstop Ha-Seong Kim, who noticed the play to its conclusion — a run scored, although Bogaerts’ cease most likely prevented a second one from doing in order effectively — and motioned for assist.

“As quickly as I caught the ball, I heard, like, cracks. 4 cracks,” Bogaerts told reporters. “At that time, I used to be like, ‘One thing’s flawed.’ I didn’t really feel precisely like one thing shifted. I simply felt, like, cracks.”

4 cracks! In another telling, it was “a pair,” however with an necessary element: “I didn’t really feel something come out after which return in. The one factor I bear in mind listening to was a pair cracks.”

Presumably Bogaerts was explaining that he didn’t really feel as if he’d suffered a soft-tissue damage. Whereas preliminary x-rays have been destructive, a subsequent prognosis confirmed a fracture in his left shoulder, and whereas the Padres didn’t provide additional specificity, the San Diego Union-Tribune’s Kevin Acee reported that the fracture is in his shoulder socket. That may recommend a glenoid fracture, notably given the traumatic nature of the damage, however such accidents normally contain tears of the labrum, and the Padres have since confirmed that Bogaerts didn’t endure a tear, nor will he want surgical procedure. By comparability, when Crimson Sox shortstop Trevor Story dove for a ball and dislocated his left shoulder on April 5, he suffered a glenoid rim fracture and tore his posterior labrum, each of which have been addressed with season-ending surgical procedure. Underneath the Knife’s Will Carroll pointed out that given the mixture of an absence of soppy tissue injury and an preliminary report that Bogaerts’ shoulder was steady, the method of elimination factors to the scapula because the fractured bone.

That’s the excellent news, however the unhealthy information is that Bogaerts continues to be anticipated to be out two to 3 months in keeping with Acee. Bogaerts expressed the assumption that he’d be again sooner, although his phrases learn extra like an athlete’s bravado than an knowledgeable replace. “Two to 3 months, no,” he stated. “Nah, nah. I perceive we wish to be sensible, however I’ll be again earlier than that. I don’t just like the sound of all these months.”

For the 31-year-old infielder, the damage is simply the newest surprising flip in a season that hasn’t lacked for them. Throughout spring coaching, the Padres convinced Bogaerts — who signed an 11-year, $280 million contract with the group in December 2022 and spent the next season enjoying shortstop — to modify locations with the defensively superior Kim, the group’s main shortstop in ’22 and its Gold Glove-winning second baseman final yr. It’s too early to get a real learn on the returns defensively, however the prorated metrics recommend it might need price them a few runs to this point:

It’s value noting that Manny Machado’s early-season absence at third base may have influenced Kim’s positioning and play, however we’re actually squinting at small samples. On a team-wide foundation, the Padres’ prorated metrics present an identical hole — they have been additional above common final yr than they’re now — however when it comes to turning batted balls into outs, they’re mainly unchanged; this yr’s .704 defensive effectivity (tied for third within the NL) is on par with final yr .702, which ranked third as effectively.

Alternatively, it doesn’t take a lot to see that Bogaerts hasn’t been himself on the plate. Regardless of enjoying a lot of the 2023 season with a nagging left wrist damage that required spring and midseason cortisone photographs and compelled him to regulate his swing, he hit a good .285/.350/.440 (120 wRC+) with 19 homers and a career-high 19 steals in his inaugural season as a Padre. This yr, nonetheless, he’s slipped to .219/.265/.316 (71 wC+) with 4 homers and 4 steals. As to what’s going flawed, he’s not hitting the ball very laborious, producing a career-low exit velocity and his lowest hard-hit charge since 2017. That stated, he’s hitting the ball within the air extra typically, and he’s pulling it extra typically:

Pulled or no, the dearth of oomph on these fly balls is basically costing him:

That hole of almost 20 toes owes one thing to cooler spring temperatures that forestall the ball from carrying so far as it does within the hotter months, however nonetheless, it’s left its mark on Bogaerts’ manufacturing.

Bogaerts spent the primary month of the season hitting leadoff, however when he addressed his hunch after an April 19 0-for-4 efficiency, he refused to lean on that or final yr’s wrist troubles as an excuse. “Let’s not search for no wrist points. Let’s not search for no leadoff spot,” he said on the time. “The hits haven’t been falling, and it sucks if you usually get lots of hits and now you don’t.”

As a substitute, Bogaerts expressed a perception that his points have been mechanical, and that his propensity to drag the ball wasn’t intentional:

“That’s actually uncommon, in contrast to me… It ain’t being pull-happy. It’s simply rhythm, not (being) in sync.

“I’m conscious that I’m hitting lots of balls over there (left discipline). And I’m making an attempt to hit it over there (proper discipline), however I nonetheless can’t do it. So, that’s the frustration… Like, you wish to do one thing and you’re feeling such as you’re not able to have the ability to do it, or your physique doesn’t mean you can do it simply by the way in which I’m placing myself in place as I’m going to take a swing. That causes the errors that I preserve doing. It’s actually, actually laborious for me to go the opposite method.”

Bogaerts had improved barely since then, hitting .243/.269/.369 (85 wRC+) since April 20, however even that’s fairly cringeworthy. One further clue might provide some perception: Per The Athletic, Bogaerts reportedly has handled hip discomfort and soreness, which he attributed to the place change. Notably given how important hip rotation is to producing bat velocity, I do marvel if that’s been an element. Multiyear bat velocity information can be useful for comparisons, however the not too long ago launched information doesn’t provide a lot assist past telling us that Bogaerts’ bat velocity ranks within the thirty first percentile. His splits by month (70.5 mph in March/April and 70.9 in Could) don’t shed any additional mild.

Maybe the day without work will enable Bogaerts a reset that helps him rediscover his stroke. As for the way the Padres will proceed with out him, on a group whose lineup is made nearly totally out of shortstops, it’s not the steepest problem to search out one or two able to filling in at second base. Since I wrote this in early April, the group has traded for Luis Arraez, who even earlier than Bogaerts’ damage had made three begins on the keystone whereas Bogaerts DHed; he took the primary three begins after Bogaerts’ damage. Arraez’s bat has heated up for the reason that Could 4 commerce; he now has a .341/.382/.422 (134 wRC+) season line on the again of a .419/.449/.514 (184 wRC+) displaying with San Diego, however his protection at second is questionable sufficient that the Padres favor him as a DH. Final yr with Miami, he had 4 DRS and a pair of.4 UZR however -7 FRV in 1,124 innings at second base, whereas this yr in 332 innings he’s at -1 DRS, -2.1 UZR, and -6 FRV.

Beginning Arraez at second opens up the DH slot for different gamers. Machado, who didn’t play the sector this season till April 26 whereas recovering from October surgical procedure to restore his extensor tendon in his proper elbow, has been DHing each third or fourth sport there currently.

Requested on Wednesday who would fill in for the injured Bogaerts, supervisor Mike Shildt had this to say:

“We’re nonetheless within the strategy of figuring that out… There are some issues that we’re desirous about that can come into play the following couple of days that we’ll discover. We’ve lots of choices between three or 4 totally different guys.

“We’ll be considerably artistic with that, relative to what we’re seeing, and the pitching. However we’ll additionally create some stability that we predict folks will like.”

The almost definitely choices in addition to the lefty-swinging Arraez are hot-hitting righty Donovan Solano (.348/.423/.391 in 26 PA since signing with the group in mid-April), lefty Tyler Wade (.260/.341/.288, 94 wRC+), and lefty Jake Cronenworth (.263/.329/.453, 127 wRC+). Cronenworth was the group’s common second baseman from 2020–22 earlier than transferring to first base. He’s a greater fielder than Arraez, and he did play 35 video games at second final yr, so in a longer-term association it’d make sense to swap the 2, as Arraez does have some first base expertise; so does Solano, for that matter, however he’s much less more likely to play each day. On Thursday, with Reds righty Frankie Montas on the mound, the Padres rolled with Cronenworth making his season debut at second, Arraez at first, and Jurickson Profar at DH; lefty David Peralta, who signed a minor league cope with the group final week and was recalled from Triple-A El Paso to take Bogaerts’ roster spot, performed left discipline in Profar’s stead.

For as tempting because it is perhaps to recommend that the Padres could possibly be higher with out Bogaerts given his hunch, the truth is that his contract makes him a long-term fixture, and any actual success that they’ve most likely relies upon upon him recovering his kind. Hopefully when he’s healed sufficient to start working his method again, he’ll rediscover his outdated stroke.