Willson Contreras May Be the Stylistic Opposite of Yadier Molina, but He Makes the Cardinals Much, Much Better

Perhaps catching isn’t as demanding and troublesome a occupation as lumberjacking or deep sea fishing, but it surely’s arduous, man. There aren’t many individuals on the market who can reside as much as the place’s monumental bodily and mental calls for, fewer nonetheless can do all that and hit at a stage that registers as greater than “automated out” to opposing pitchers.

Even within the latter reaches of this 12 months’s postseason, guys like Austin Hedges, Yadier Molina, and Martín Maldonado stored getting begins as a result of they had been a protected pair of arms behind the plate, even because the outs piled up at a fee that might’ve been unacceptable at another place. Surefire two-way stars like J.T. Realmuto, Will Smith, and Adley Rutschman are rarer than at another place, and the ranks of first-division starters swell and wane as a Jose Trevino abruptly learns easy methods to hit, or an Austin Nola’s throwing turns into problematic.

So when a catcher comes alongside who can hit — like, actually hit — that’s a uncommon factor. Even when the protection isn’t preferrred, a catcher with a harmful bat is price, properly, let’s ask the St. Louis Cardinals. Seems they assume it’s well worth the five years and $87.5 million they only gave Willson Contreras.

Each Ben Clemens and our crowdsourced predictions had our no. 10 free agent on a four-year deal; Ben mentioned $20 million a 12 months, whereas the gang predicted the identical $17.5 million AAV Contreras ended up with. Even factoring within the penalties for signing a free agent who obtained a qualifying provide (forfeiture of $500,000 in worldwide pool cash and the Cardinals’ second-highest draft decide), this contract appears cheap for St. Louis based mostly on the Realmuto deal from two offseasons in the past, in addition to what’s been fairly a wealthy market thus far in free company.

Since Contreras broke in with the World Collection-bound Cubs in 2016, he’s fourth amongst catchers in WAR and first in wRC+ amongst catchers with not less than 1,500 plate appearances. Extra not too long ago, since 2020, right here’s how he stacks up in varied offensive classes amongst catchers with not less than 500 PA:

And regardless that he turned 30 this previous season, Contreras’ bat appears as sprightly as ever. He simply posted a profession low in Ok% and profession highs in wRC+ and xwOBA.

The fellows round Contreras on most of those leaderboards are among the many finest catchers in baseball, and symbolize a sort of participant who’s terribly troublesome to accumulate. A younger, cost-controlled backstop with two-way affect, like Sean Murphy, would demand a king’s ransom in commerce. And to be trustworthy, at 28 and with three years left of crew management, each the “younger” and “cost-controlled” factors are open to debate. However not less than he will be had in a commerce, which is greater than will be mentioned for Smith, Rutschman, or Alejandro Kirk. Realmuto value $115.5 million over 5 years, and that’s two seasons and a pair rounds of wage inflation in the past.

You’ll discover I’ve been speaking up Contreras’ bat, and that’s as a result of the glove, whereas playable, isn’t actually a promoting level. His arm is nice — R.J. Anderson of CBS dug up a enjoyable nugget Wednesday morning: In 2022, Contreras attempted more back picks than the second- and third-place catchers put collectively. He’s equaled or overwhelmed the league common in caught stealing proportion in six of his seven huge league seasons. The remaining, nonetheless, not a lot. Final season, 40 catchers caught not less than 500 innings; of these, Contreras was the Twenty eighth-best framer and Twenty seventh-best defender general. And if something, that in all probability overstates Contreras’ defensive fame. The Cubs have been sprinkling him across the area — DH, the outfield corners, the odd stint at third — since he was known as up right into a crowded catching scenario in 2016. In 2022, he made 72 begins at catcher and 39 at DH.

On this respect, he stands in stark distinction to the person he replaces: The latter-day Yadi. And no, Contreras possible gained’t be as defense-y and leadershippy as Molina has been, however who’s? Final 12 months, Molina hit .214/.233/.302 and received 270 plate appearances anyway; he should have been fairly leadershippy certainly.

However whereas Cardinals observers will discover the aesthetic transition from Molina to Contreras fairly bracing, there are a couple of factors to advocate the previous Cub over the franchise legend he’s changing.

First, to steal an especially outdated Jeff Passan line: Contreras can hit Molina farther than Molina can hit a baseball. And that issues — the Cardinals completed Twenty seventh in baseball final 12 months in WAR amongst catchers. They haven’t completed greater than 18th since 2016, and haven’t completed greater than the Cubs since 2018, which is the one 12 months of Contreras’ profession when St. Louis has gotten extra worth from its catchers than its greatest rival.

Second, the rating incumbent Cardinal catcher, Andrew Knizner, has even worse defensive numbers than Contreras. They wanted to improve by some means, and had been not less than tenuously linked to the way more Molina-like Christian Vázquez, in addition to a commerce for Murphy. They selected the most important stylistic departure out there.

Third, Contreras’ bat and relative youth truly make him a safer long-term wager than a catcher who will get by extra along with his glove. Due to the bodily calls for of the place, most catchers find yourself strolling like Ebenezer Scrooge by the point they’re 35. Combine within the offensive decline typical of all place gamers at that age and also you get, properly, the final 4 or 5 years of Molina’s profession: intangibles, and never rather a lot else. Contreras is the uncommon catcher who can transition to a part-time function elsewhere on the sphere and hit properly sufficient to justify a median wage of $17.5 million.

In that respect, it’s a disgrace we gained’t get to reside within the timeline through which Contreras performs for the Astros. His bat would’ve made a robust complement to Maldonado’s protection, and with the Crawford Packing containers so near the right-handed batter’s field, Contreras might’ve hit 30-plus homers a 12 months there. Houston had a commerce lined up on the deadline, earlier than Dusty Baker objected on the grounds that Contreras would possibly hesitate to just accept simply such a part-time function as I’ve described partway by way of the season. As soon as free company opened up, the Astros renewed their pursuit of the top catcher on the market, however in the end appear to have fallen brief.

Lastly, technological developments would possibly work in Contreras’ favor. On Tuesday, commissioner Rob Manfred addressed the BBWAA on the Winter Conferences; when requested in regards to the growth of automated ball and strike know-how — i.e. robotic umps — he mentioned the league was studying fairly a bit, but additionally coming to grasp how far there may be to go earlier than such tech is viable on the huge league stage. So whereas it’s unlikely that we’ll have ABS as quickly as 2024, there’s a definite risk that we might have it earlier than Contreras’ contract is up.

Proper now, catchers can win (or lose, in Contreras’ case) tens of runs per 12 months by framing, which is the artwork of fooling flesh-and-blood umpires into pondering balls are strikes. If within the subsequent few years we transition from meat-based umps to a system of sensors, that makes Contreras possibly as a lot as a full win higher relative to his extra defense-focused contemporaries. All of that is conjecture, but it surely’s one thing to contemplate when judging catchers out into the center of this decade.

All of which is a great distance of claiming: The Cardinals had an enormous gap at catcher, they usually crammed it with the most suitable choice on the free agent market by far. In so doing, they made their lineup a lot deeper — thus shoring up a key weak spot for a possible playoff push — and managed to tweak the Cubs by stealing their arch rival’s finest participant. That’s a reasonably good day’s work.