Why The White Sox Are Unlikely To Re-Sign Jose Abreu

For the previous 9 seasons, Jose Abreu has been a White Sox mainstay, serving as their main first baseman and displaying uncanny sturdiness by showing in 93.6% of the crew’s potential video games. Together with his three-year, $50MM contract now drawing to an in depth, nonetheless, it’s honest to wonder if the 35-year-old (36 in January) has performed his closing recreation with the ChiSox. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale wrote recently that the Sox plan to let Abreu transfer on in free company this winter, and Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times offers an identical sentiment, writing that the Sox are planning to maneuver Andrew Vaughn again to his pure place, first base.

Definitely, there’s room for each Vaughn and Abreu on the roster, however such an association inherently pushes the Sox to divide first base, designated hitter and nook outfield duties between Abreu, Vaughn and slugger Eloy Jimenez. Each Vaughn and Jimenez are among the many recreation’s worst-ranked defenders within the outfield. Jimenez has posted -15 Defensive Runs Saved and -16 Outs Above Common in 1957 profession innings within the outfield. Vaughn successfully matched these totals (-14 DRS, -16 OAA) in 2022 alone, by way of simply 645 innings. Shifting on from Abreu would permit Vaughn to play his pure place with Jimenez seeing the lion’s share of taking part in time at designated hitter.

Additionally telling is Van Schouwen reporting that the Sox’ resolution to re-sign Abreu the final time he reached free company, following the 2019 season, was a choice straight from proprietor Jerry Reinsdorf. The entrance workplace “was not 100% behind” the thought of re-signing Abreu to a long-term deal, however Reinsdorf himself put forth the $50MM provide to Abreu after the slugger had accepted a one-year, $17.8MM qualifying provide.

On the one hand, that ownership-driven resolution saddled the crew with some less-than-ideal defensive alignments for the subsequent three seasons. Jimenez was already established on the time of the signing. Vaughn had already been drafted and was broadly anticipated to be a quick riser by way of the system. There was no clear defensive match on the roster for all three.

On the opposite, Abreu greater than justified the expenditure, taking part in all however 15 of the White Sox’ video games over that three-year time period and posting a mixed .289/.366/.489 slash (137 wRC+). He was the decisive first-place finisher in 2020 American League MVP voting and adopted that with a 30-homer marketing campaign in 2021. Even this previous season, as Abreu’s energy dipped, he topped a .300 batting common and struck out in a career-low 16.2% of his plate appearances.

That stated, merely writing off this yr’s energy outage could be an oversimplification. Abreu’s .304/.378/.466 batting line was nonetheless wonderful (137 wRC+), however he turned in a career-high 47.9% ground-ball price and elevated the ball with diminishing frequency because the summer time wore on. He hit simply 4 house runs after the All-Star break and solely six from July 1 by way of season’s finish. Two years faraway from hitting 19 house runs within the truncated 60-game season and watching a Herculean 32.8% of his fly-balls depart the yard for house runs, Abreu hit simply 15 homers by way of 157 video games and noticed that HR/FB ratio plummet to 9.6%.

Once more, there’s little denying that Abreu’s end-of-the-day leads to 2022 remained wonderful, however they have been buoyed by a .350 common on balls in play {that a} plodding slugger of his ilk will probably be hard-pressed to maintain, notably if practically half his batted balls are hit on the bottom. Moreover, the White Sox and some other potential suitors will probably be extra involved with what they undertaking him to do shifting ahead. If there are doubts about his skill to raise the ball and rediscover his energy stroke, that’ll weigh on his incomes energy in free company. Nonetheless, if different golf equipment are assured in his skill to both repeat his 2022 output or, even higher, reestablish himself as an annual 30-homer risk, then Nelson Cruz has confirmed that there could possibly be wholesome paydays even right into a participant’s early 40s.

The opposite factor to contemplate in Abreu’s future with the Sox, or lack thereof, is the crew’s already bloated payroll. Chicago has $121MM in assured cash on subsequent yr’s books, per Roster Resource, and that’s earlier than exercising Tim Anderson’s $12.5MM membership possibility and earlier than outfielder AJ Pollock doubtless workout routines a $10MM participant possibility. Add in a projected $27.4MM in arbitration salaries (courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz), and the South Siders are at a payroll of roughly $170MM, not together with pre-arbitration gamers to spherical out the 26-man roster.

This previous season’s $193MM Opening Day payroll was a franchise document, and the Sox are inside putting distance of that sum earlier than even making a single transfer to handle the 2023 roster. Seen by way of that lens, it’s much less stunning that the Sox seem poised to maneuver on from their longtime first baseman, even when it received’t be a straightforward promote for followers who’ve grown to like Abreu throughout his 9 years with the crew.