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Now that the Bucs schedule has been launched, Las Vegas has launched the betting traces for every recreation the staff has in 2024. Tampa Bay is favored in seven of their 17 matchups. This can be a bounce up from last year after they have been favored in simply two.
Including up the Bucs’ odds of profitable in every contest reveals that they’re predicted to win 7.88 video games subsequent 12 months, which might be a step again from their 9 wins in 2023. It additionally reveals a bit of worth for individuals who could wish to wager the over on the Vegas’ 7.5-win complete prediction.
However these traces may also give us a peek into Tampa Bay’s ceiling and flooring for the 2024 season.
Based mostly on the implied odds of every recreation we are able to decide the chances of every potential win complete (0-17), and from there decide what minimal variety of wins make up the staff’s flooring (tenth percentile) and ceiling (ninetieth percentile).
Implied Odds Of The Bucs Profitable Every Recreation
Listed here are the implied odds of Tampa Bay profitable every recreation this upcoming 12 months.
I pulled the “greatest traces” relating to betting traces from Rotowire and pulled the Vegas edge out.
Bucs are favored in 7 video games in 2024
Discovering The Cumulative Odds Of Every Win Complete
The chances Tampa Bay wins a selected variety of video games are listed under:
Odds the Bucs win a selected variety of video games
Based mostly on this we are able to see that Tampa Bay’s odds of profitable 4 or much less video games are simply 4.32%. That creates an affordable “flooring” as something much less can be outdoors two normal deviations from the imply.
Conversely, based mostly off of this the staff has solely a 3.49% probability of profitable greater than 11 video games, creating that as an affordable “ceiling.” That leaves a seven-win unfold between the 2. Here’s a graphical illustration of the chance of the Tampa Bay profitable every variety of video games or much less.
Bucs Are Extra Possible To Attain Ceiling Than Ground
Trying on the distinction between their 7.88 implied win complete and the now-established ceiling and there’s a nearer relationship between the implied complete and the ceiling (3.12) than the connection between the implied win complete and the ground (3.88). This implies the chances Tampa Bay wins someplace between seven and 11 video games is extra prone to happen than the staff profitable between 4 and 7 video games.
That’s excellent news on paper, Pewter Individuals.
Implied Win Totals For The Relaxation Of The NFC South
Bucs RB Rachaad White – Photograph by: USA As we speak
Based mostly on the implied odds of every week of the NFL season, the Bucs are projected to complete second within the NFC South because of this. Take into account that Tampa Bay has gained the division the final three seasons, however the final two years have been by a razor’s edge.
In 2022, the Bucs went 8-9 and gained the NFC South whereas all three different groups completed 7-10. Final 12 months, Tampa Bay and New Orleans each completed with 9-8 data however the Bucs gained on account of an NFC tiebreaker.
The Atlanta Falcons are projected to guide the division this 12 months with 9.36 wins. The New Orleans Saints are projected to come back in third with 7.39 wins.
And the Carolina Panthers are unsurprisingly projected to come back in final. Although the Panthers’ win complete projection could shock some Bucs followers at 6.57.
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