What’s Next for the Cincinnati Reds?

Whereas the ebook isn’t utterly shut on the 2024 Cincinnati Reds, with a 0.3% projected probability of creating the postseason entering this week, solely a plot twist out of left discipline may change the story. At 82-80, the 2023 Reds weren’t precisely good, however after getting into the season with a bleak outlook, they comfortably beat most expectations. Provided that their enhancements final yr largely got here from their younger expertise quite than short-term signings, it wasn’t unreasonable again in March to imagine this crew may contend for a postseason berth. 5 months later, because the Reds look extra more likely to play the function of spoiler in September than make it to October, now looks like a advantageous time to think about the place they need to go from right here.

Step one could be to ask ourselves what have been the cheap expectations for the Reds in 2024. The ZiPS projections gave them an 80-82 record, however with sufficient uncertainty that if issues broke their means, they may make a playoff push (35.1% odds). One man’s digital monstrosity isn’t the one truthful outlook, after all, however our depth charts and Baseball Prospectus each had Cincinnati in the same place, at 79 wins.

Proper now, our depth charts and ZiPS have the Reds ending with a 77-85 file, a disappointing consequence, however not precisely an enormous miss relative to the projections above. If we’re going to determine the place the Reds go from right here, we first have to know how they obtained thus far, and which means trying again on the classes they drew from their 82 wins final yr.

Based mostly on their offseason strikes, it seems the group determined – little doubt some unknown mixture of possession and the entrance workplace – that the final strategy was to remain the course with their younger expertise and make mid-tier free agent signings to fill the crew’s most urgent holes. The Reds made no vital trades over the winter, until you rely sending pitcher Daniel Duarte to the Rangers for money in January after designating him for project as vital. It wasn’t till practically Opening Day that the crew made a transfer that will have an precise impact on the roster, selecting up Santiago Espinal from the Blue Jays within the aftermath of the Noelvi Marte suspension.

Excluding the Espinal commerce, the gamers signed in free company made up the whole thing of the exterior enhancements from 2023 to 2024. Suffice it to say, I used to be not a fan of the particular signings they made. To sum up my common emotions on the time, I believed Jeimer Candelario was the appropriate participant for the fallacious crew. It doesn’t make a lot sense for a crew overloaded with third basemen to signal a participant who’s Most worthy as a 3rd baseman after which make him a mediocre first baseman. On the pitching facet, Emilio Pagán was a catastrophe ready to occur, and $13 million was loads to offer Nick Martinez. Different pitcher signings made extra sense: Brent Suter was a very good addition and Frankie Montas was an inexpensive gamble. The signings didn’t go precisely as I anticipated – some have been worse, some have been higher – however they definitely didn’t do a lot to enhance the membership.

As a gaggle, the free brokers have carried out a bit worse than projected, however not alarmingly so. By the top of the yr, we mission these 9 free brokers to be value 5.1 WAR to the Reds, in comparison with the 7.3 WAR that was predicted. Two wins wouldn’t have salvaged Cincinnati’s season.

Accidents to a number of the younger expertise has definitely hindered the Reds. Matt McLain, who made a convincing case for being one of many crew’s foundational abilities final yr, injured his shoulder within the spring and has but to play for Cincinnati this season. Christian Encarnacion-Strand didn’t get the prospect to make up for his chilly begin as a result of he underwent season-ending surgical procedure in July after fracturing his proper wrist in Might, and whereas it’s not an damage, the crew went with out Marte for 80 video games after he was suspended for performance-enhancing medication.

Nevertheless, the Reds additionally obtained some spectacular breakouts on the flip facet to compensate. For as thrilling as they’re, Elly De La Cruz and Hunter Greene weren’t anticipated to be on this yr’s MVP and Cy Younger races, although that’s the place they stand in late August.

Furthermore, accidents alone didn’t cease Cincinnati in its tracks. I ran the numbers on time misplaced to accidents two weeks ago, and the Reds ranked eleventh out of 30 groups in potential worth misplaced to damage, at 6.46 wins, proper in step with the imply (6.5 wins) and a half-win greater than median (six wins).

That leaves us with the conclusion that the Reds didn’t wrestle this season as a result of they have been unfortunate; quite, they did so as a result of they have been a roughly .500 crew by way of expertise and didn’t get fortunate. The trail ahead, then, is for possession and the entrance workplace to acknowledge this to allow them to work to enhance the crew within the offseason as an alternative of staying the course once more and hoping for higher outcomes.

One a part of this yr’s plan — counting on the younger expertise — was justified and is value doing once more subsequent season, so long as the Reds reinforce their core with extra impactful veterans. Wanting on the projections for 2025 now versus the place they have been six months in the past, the Reds have misplaced just a few wins, however their basis continues to be fairly stable.

(Rhett Lowder just isn’t included right here as a result of he didn’t get a preseason ZiPS projection this yr for 2025, so there could be nothing to check together with his present projection for subsequent season.)

After I run some very preliminary projections for the NL Central in 2025, primarily based on gamers who’re beneath crew management for subsequent season, the division appears loads prefer it did on this yr’s the preseason projections, with all 5 groups roughly clustered across the .500 mark. That signifies that, with the appropriate strikes, the Reds may increase their playoff odds significantly this offseason.

Their plan to paper over holes this season by transferring third basemen round has not been profitable: The crew ranks twenty fifth in outfield WAR and twenty eighth each in first base WAR and designated hitter WAR. Upgrading these positions with gamers who really play them would go a great distance towards turning issues round. The rotation hasn’t been dangerous this season, however it isn’t adequate because it’s at the moment constructed.

It’s value mentioning that the Reds did spend cash on their roster getting into this season, however they simply didn’t accomplish that successfully. Signing mid-tier free brokers once more this offseason gained’t treatment the crew’s woes. Sure, possession virtually definitely would balk on the concept of giving Juan Soto a clean test to play for Cincinnati, however it will be much more preposterous to spend the identical quantity to signal six gamers who’re barely above substitute stage, which is type of what the Reds did final winter.

Wanting forward, although the upcoming class of free brokers isn’t significantly deep, Cincinnati’s entrance workplace must strike the appropriate steadiness of high quality and amount. Corbin Burnes is likely one of the greatest gamers accessible, and the Reds ought to make a critical push to signal him. Blake Snell has been on such a roll after his tough begin to this season that it appears practically sure that he’ll choose out of his Giants contract. The Braves have but to increase Max Fried, so he appears certain without spending a dime company, too. And whereas they could fall brief, why shouldn’t the Reds go after Roki Sasaki if he will get posted this winter? In spite of everything, they made a bid to land Shohei Ohtani again when he was coming over from Japan.

On the offensive facet, Anthony Santander would give the Reds the professional middle-of-the-order bat within the outfield that they at the moment lack, as would Tyler O’Neill and Teoscar Hernández

We at the moment have the Reds with a assured payroll of just below $50 million for 2025, although that’s not together with arbitration awards. They definitely have the power to go after gamers who would make an actual distinction and nonetheless have a payroll nicely beneath that of the common crew. A repeat of final winter’s strategy could be a catastrophe; extra of the identical will probably result in extra of the identical. The Reds fairly probably have extra upside than another crew within the NL Central, however the time’s come for them to select a route quite than treading water.