What Happened to All Those Stolen Bases?

The 2023 common season regarded a bit completely different from earlier years. MLB made some important rule modifications again within the spring — including a pitch clock, limiting defensive shifts and pickoff makes an attempt, and bigger bases amongst them — and people modifications, for probably the most half, had their supposed results. The pitch clock helped shorten the typical nine-inning recreation by almost half an hour; scoring elevated by greater than a half a run per recreation; and with pitchers now underneath the gun to ship to the plate and restricted of their capacity to verify on the operating recreation, and with a barely bigger goal 90 toes away, baserunners grew to become traditionally aggressive. Stolen bases jumped from 0.51 per workforce per recreation in 2022 to 0.72 in ’23, a greater than 40% improve and the best common per workforce recreation since 1997, when there have been additionally about twice as many baserunners caught stealing as there have been in 2023. By no means within the greater than 100 years of obtainable knowledge have groups averaged as many as 0.72 steals per recreation and as few as 2023’s 0.18 caught per recreation.

However up to now in October, stolen bases have been a relative non-factor, with groups averaging simply 0.50 per recreation within the postseason, decrease than final 12 months’s regular-season fee. It’s nonetheless increased than final postseason’s fee of 0.43, however properly throughout the pre-rule change vary of norms.

Let’s begin with the apparent: runners are getting caught solely barely extra steadily than they had been within the common season. They posted the 2 highest league-wide stolen base success charges of all time at 75.7% in 2021 and 75.4% in 2022, just for that determine to jump to 80.2% within the 2023 common season. To this point in October, they’re at 78.4%.

However this distinction of lower than two proportion factors doesn’t clarify a 40% drop in total stolen base numbers. Certainly, if we have a look at total makes an attempt, the per-team-game common went from 0.68 in 2022 to a exceptional 0.90 in ’23 — after which again to 0.64 up to now in these playoffs. For probably the most half, it’s not for lack of success; it’s for lack of making an attempt.

And it’s not simply that groups aren’t operating as a lot; stolen bases simply don’t appear to be having a lot of an affect altogether. The 29 stolen bases by Thursday’s video games had summed to a complete of .396 WPA; examine that to the 2022 postseason, when 34 stolen bases amounted to a WPA of .679. Final October, 12 profitable stolen base performs swung a workforce’s odds of successful a recreation by at the very least two %. This postseason, simply 4 have, together with two within the ninth inning of Thursday night’s walk-off Diamondbacks win. In different phrases, baserunners usually are not solely selecting fewer alternatives to go, but in addition selecting lower-leverage ones. In final 12 months’s postseason, the typical plate look leverage index when a runner took off was 1.29; this 12 months, it’s 1.16.

When runners have picked a high-leverage spot to go, it hasn’t gone so properly. Most notably, Gunnar Henderson’s ninth-inning caught-stealing in ALDS Recreation 1 — which, to be truthful to him, was later revealed to have been a busted hit-and-run — price the Orioles to the tune of -.221 WPA, nonetheless the sixth-most pivotal play in these playoffs. No different caught-stealing comes near that one, however different higher-leverage makes an attempt have gone awry as properly. Of the highest 15 makes an attempt this postseason by leverage index, 9 have made it safely, and 6 have been caught.

What could possibly be the perpetrator for the decrease charges? Within the postseason, we’re a a lot smaller pattern than within the common season, and the speed at which groups try to steal bases could possibly be impacted by the speed at which groups are getting on base, the gamers who’re getting on, the power of the precise pitchers and catchers to guard in opposition to stolen bases, and extra. The pattern measurement signifies that these averages could be swung by, as an example, the truth that Ronald Acuña Jr., the league’s prime base stealer by almost 20, performed solely 4 video games and reached base solely 5 instances (he went 2-for-2 in stolen base makes an attempt). Corbin Carroll, the no. 2 base-stealer in 2023 by sheer quantity, has been on base a ton however has been uncharacteristically shy; the TBS broadcast workforce might hardly imagine he was staying put when he reached on an error to guide off NLCS Recreation 2 on Tuesday night time. Had Acuña gotten an opportunity to play deeper into the playoffs, or had Carroll been faster to tug the set off up to now, we could possibly be telling a special story.

However this doesn’t appear to be a matter of alternative. Whereas batting averages and on-base percentages have been down barely within the postseason, offenses have had nearly as many plate appearances within the extra favorable base-stealing conditions. They simply aren’t biting.

It’s not solely that the pattern is small within the postseason, although; it’s additionally not essentially consultant of the league as an entire. Simply 12 of the 30 groups make it to October, and if these 12 embrace an overrepresentation of notably steal-friendly or steal-averse groups, it might make sense to see these patterns within the postseason.

Because it seems, this crop of postseason groups is fairly consultant of the league from a baserunning perspective. The Rays, Diamondbacks, and Phillies had been among the many most aggressive groups in baseball this season stealing bases, with the latter two additionally among the many finest from successful fee standpoint. The Rangers, Twins, and Marlins, however, had been properly beneath league common within the operating recreation. Collectively, these 12 groups averaged 0.89 makes an attempt per workforce recreation, in comparison with the league-wide common of 0.90, with successful fee of 81.2%, one proportion level above the league. When adjusted for what number of video games they’ve performed within the postseason, you’d anticipate a tournament-wide fee of 0.88 makes an attempt per recreation based mostly on their regular-season efficiency — a far cry from what we’re seeing.

Relating to stopping the operating recreation, this batch of groups stored their opponents in verify somewhat bit higher than that. As a gaggle, they allowed a median of 0.87 makes an attempt per recreation, however the Diamondbacks, Rangers, Phillies, and Twins — 4 of the 5 groups with probably the most video games performed this postseason — are all bringing that common down. Weighted for his or her postseason video games performed, this group averaged 0.84 makes an attempt per recreation within the common season and stored their opponents to a 78% success fee.

The catchers on these postseason golf equipment deserve a variety of that credit score. On Statcast’s catcher throwing leaderboard, the Diamondbacks’ Gabriel Moreno ranks as the highest backstop in baseball by catcher CS above common. The Rangers’ Jonah Heim, the Braves’ Sean Murphy, the Astros’ Martín Maldonado and Yainer Diaz, and the Phillies’ J.T. Realmuto had been all within the prime 20 of 63 graded catchers this season. Heim, Realmuto, Maldonado, and Moreno are the 4 catchers with probably the most begins within the postseason. By workforce, all 4 Championship Sequence golf equipment had been among the many prime 11 within the league by the identical metric.

Any such expertise behind the plate tends to have a compounding impact when it comes to limiting stolen bases. Not solely are these catchers higher geared up to throw out the would-be stealers that do run, however they’re additionally more likely to dissuade these runners from making an attempt within the first place. That’s not essentially an excellent factor; these groups might need they had been examined extra usually, giving their sturdy catchers an opportunity to maintain opposing runners underneath the success fee obligatory to interrupt even on stolen base makes an attempt. With the stakes as excessive as they’re, evidently groups aren’t inclined to check them as a lot.

To not fear; in all probability, somebody will steal America a taco subsequent week. However it does strike me as attention-grabbing that after a season of baserunners wreaking havoc on the basepaths, we’re seeing a way more conservative operating recreation in these video games that matter most. Aggressive baserunning is a part of what received a few of these groups up to now. Because the stakes get even increased, we’ll see how considered they’re when selecting their spots.

All stats by video games of October 18.