Week 4 Preview & Prediction: Dolphins at Bills

The Week That Was

So…that was enjoyable, eh?

I’m nonetheless in disbelief on the virtually surreal beating that our Dolphins delivered to the Denver Broncos final Sunday. Certain, practically everybody thought Miami would win. Certain, many people even thought that they might win handily. There have been even a good variety of followers and out of doors observers who anticipated a legit blowout. However a 50-point win on the again of 70 factors scored? Even probably the most insanely optimistic, opium-deluded Fins fanatic couldn’t have envisioned what we noticed at Onerous Rock final week. Information had been smashed in all places, and I for one was left questioning how badly Sean Payton hates Russell Wilson, seeing as how he left him on the market for the complete bloodbath.

Nonetheless unbelievable, a number of web sites and information shops verify that the Dolphins certainly received in spectacular trend, sending them to 3-0 to begin the season. Whereas my rating prediction was hilariously fallacious, it was fallacious in a manner that I’d like to see replicated frequently:

As a lot as we’d all like to bask within the glow of the victory for a lot of weeks and months, a a lot harder take a look at lies forward for our Dolphins: a visit as much as Buffalo to face the division rival Payments, who’ve been the category of the AFC East for 3 years working. Let’s take a look at what’s in retailer.

The Story of the Tape

Though it’s nonetheless on the early aspect, three video games is sufficient to get a normal image of groups from their key staff stats. Listed below are the NFL rankings for the Payments and Fins:

Picture by Megan Briggs/Getty Pictures

From simply the stats, now we have a Miami Dolphins staff that’s making an early case to be talked about in the identical breath because the 1999 Rams, 2007 Patriots, and 2013 Broncos – three of probably the most traditionally highly effective offenses the NFL has ever seen. We’re nonetheless very early within the season, however this Dolphins staff has the items to finish the 2023 season in the identical class as these juggernauts. They look like balanced, inventive, and unrelenting within the ways in which made these different groups such a terror for opposing defenses. They merely pose too many threats for all however probably the most proficient and disciplined defenses to presumably attempt to account for. We noticed flashes of it final yr, however these weren’t sustained, partially on account of Tua lacking 5 video games between two stretches on account of damage. Thus far on this younger season, we’re getting handled to what Mike McDaniel had envisioned when he took the job as Dolphins HC earlier than final yr. The numbers right here additionally level to a protection that’s under common, although which may be a tad deceiving this early. A great deal of the factors and yards surrendered by the protection had been within the opening sport towards the Chargers – an offense with legit expertise that got here out with a great plan to assault a Fins protection that was nonetheless studying new DC Vic Fangio’s protection. Since then, the protection has been higher.

The Payments’ numbers counsel a staff with no actual weak point, and there’s some fact to this. The numbers fee extraordinarily excessive in lots of areas, and no staff stat is decrease than 14th within the league. It does bear noting, nevertheless, that of their first three video games, they’ve confronted the Jets, the Raiders, and the Commanders. I’ll provide a more in-depth take a look at these final two in a second, however that first sport was towards the Jets in that sport the place they infamously misplaced Aaron Rodgers earlier than most followers had an opportunity to even pound their first beer. At the least on the floor, the Payments haven’t precisely confronted stiff competitors. In fact, surfaces can obscure a lot of what lies beneath. Simply how did Buffalo look of their final two video games?

The Payments Final Two Video games: Vs Las Vegas and at Washington

Two weeks in the past, the Payments hosted the Vegas Raiders up in Buffalo. Briefly, the Payments dealt with enterprise very effectively. They noticed Vegas seven factors on a DeVonte Adams landing a couple of minutes into the sport after which even went three-and-out and punted again to the Raiders. The Raiders responded to this reward by throwing an interception, which lit the pilot gentle on all of the Payments’ burners. From that time at about 5 minutes left within the first quarter, Buffalo performed stable, complimentary soccer to steadily outscore the Raiders 38-3, profitable the sport with a completely convincing ultimate rating of 38-10. Just a few transient stretches apart, Buffalo outplayed Las Vegas in each section of the sport. It was an ideal instance of what an excellent staff ought to do to a disorganized staff with restricted expertise.

Picture by Jess Rapfogel/Getty Pictures

Final Sunday, whereas our Dolphins had been making NFL historical past in the fitting methods for as soon as, the Payments had been placing their very own beatdown on the Commanders in Washington. After one quarter, it was 10-0 Payments. After two quarters, 16-0. The third quarter was a slog, after which issues completely broke open within the fourth quarter because the Payments shortly went up 30-0 and began resting starters. The ultimate rating was 37-3. It wasn’t practically as dazzling as what the Dolphins did to Denver, however Buffalo definitely pulled Washington’s pants down round its ankles, particularly the Commanders’ offense and QB Sam Howell. I sincere to Marino felt dangerous for Howell. He threw 4 picks, all of them dangerous selections on his half. He was additionally sacked 9 instances. Sure. 9. A few of this was the Payments’ sturdy go rush, however greater than a bit of of it was Howell simply holding onto the ball too lengthy. On the opposite aspect of the ball, the Payments offense wasn’t precisely taking part in at their peak “2021 AFC Divisional Spherical vs Chiefs” stage, however a number of of their strengths had been on show. This sport was very a lot the Buffalo Bills telling the Commanders to get that weak mess out of right here.

My foremost takeaways from watching these two video games:

1. You may go forward and overlook the notion that the Payments are “cooked” or that their window has closed, primarily based on their considerably weaker play within the latter a part of final season. After a really shaky opening week loss, they’ve regarded extra just like the top-tier AFC staff that they had been in 2020, 2021, and the primary a part of 2022.
2. Josh Allen is again to being a significant issue. Give him a semi-open receiver to throw to wherever on the sphere? He’s going to lace that ball proper down there to him 9 instances out of ten. Break via Buffalo’s (good) offensive line to use stress on Allen? You higher wrap him up and sack him immediately, as a result of in any other case he’s going to interrupt the deal with, discover a hole, and run for at the very least a ten-spot on you. Both that or simply rip off a 30-yard completion with two of your defenders draped off of his hips and shoulders.
3. Buffalo’s protection should be lacking Von Miller, however they’re a handful. Locked in. Rallying to the ball. Good tacklers. Suppose the Pats protection we noticed a few weeks in the past, however with extra athleticism. These linebackers and defensive backs aren’t getting punked for infinite yards like we noticed towards Denver. This would be the Fins offense’s hardest take a look at but, early within the 2023 season.

Unit Matchups

Dolphins Offense vs Payments Protection

Look, I perceive that we’re all as excessive as Floyd from True Romance over final week’s historic offensive efficiency towards the Denver Broncos. I’ve rewatched that sport twice, being extra entertained every time. However that was just a few stars aligning simply accurately. This Payments protection is a number of tiers higher than the Broncos. Their defensive entrance applies stress effectively. The linebackers are sensible and quick to the ball, and likewise quick to throw soiled performs that injure Dolphins QBs. Sure, I stated it. That apart, their defensive backs cowl effectively and are opportunistic. However they’re not the ‘85 Bears or the 2000 Ravens. They’re superb, sure, however they’ve additionally accomplished their actual injury this younger season towards dangerous offenses. In Washington’s case, a actually dangerous offense. They’ve but to face something remotely just like the ‘23 Dolphins. Due to a balanced offense constructed on stable O-line play (for as soon as), Tua Tagovailoa’s elevated mastery and confidence, and immense pace and expertise at a number of talent positions, this offensive assault has no simple solutions. In simply three video games, Mike McDaniel has proven to be able to beating you any which manner. In sport one towards the Chargers, LA took away the run, so Tua threw for 450 yards to bag the win. In week two, Invoice Belichick took away the large passing performs by dropping extra DBs into protection, so Tua and the working backs performed a extra conservative sport and steadily chipped away to get one other essential street win. Final week towards Denver, it was an all-around fireworks present primarily based as a lot round a sturdy working sport as something, with Raheem Mostert, De’Von Achane, and some others combining for a ridiculous 350+ dashing yards. Pretty much as good as Buffalo’s protection is, I merely can’t see them shutting down the Dolphins’ offense in any manner remotely just like what they did towards the laughable offenses that Vegas and Washington are working on the market. The Fins received’t be placing up loopy numbers like they did towards the Chargers and positively not just like the Broncos, however they need to get theirs. Oh, and so they’re getting Jalen Waddle again, who was out final Sunday. Benefit: Dolphins

Dolphins Protection vs. Payments Offense

Picture by Peter Joneleit/Icon Sportswire through Getty Pictures

I do fear about this one a bit. Miami’s protection has some actual expertise on it, and Vic Fangio’s vaunted defensive methods appear to be taking root after a tough begin in week one. However boy, is Josh Allen a troublesome puzzle to resolve. It was already powerful, as soon as he discovered his mechanics points between the 2019 and 2020 seasons. As soon as they added just a few dependable receivers, although, it grew to become the complete AFC’s drawback. The one time a Vic Fangio staff confronted the Josh Allen Payments, it was 2020 when Fangio’s Broncos received obliterated 48-19. Now, needless to say that Broncos staff had Drew Lock underneath heart, which by no means boded effectively. Additionally, it was Fangio’s first yr in Denver, when his staff was nonetheless studying his defensive scheme. Nonetheless, it’s not a fantastic resume, quick as it’s. Then once more, Allen has accomplished that to many good DCs in the previous few years. The present Dolphins protection has an opportunity to maintain Allen from going totally berserk on them, however guys like Xavien Howard, Kader Kohou, and the opposite DBs are going to should play at their best possible, simply to provide the Fins’ entrance seven an opportunity to maintain any kind of lid on Allen. They’re succesful, however they received’t be capable to get away with many (or any) errors on this one. Benefit: Payments

Particular Groups, Teaching, and Different Components

Particular Groups: They’re roughly even, on steadiness, although totally different. The Fins don’t have a really dependable subject objective kicker in Jason Sanders, however they do have a really dependable punt and kick returner in Braxton Berrios. The Payments have a dependable subject objective kicker, however they’ve been poor in punt and kick return protection. Kinda cancels out. No benefit right here.

Teaching: Given simply how a lot swag Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel is working with, it’s tempting to provide the Fins the nod right here. However Sean McDermott has been locations that McDaniel hasn’t been but. McDermott is a few years forward of the place McDaniel hopes to be quickly: taking a perennially mediocre franchise and elevating it to a perennial deep playoff-run staff. McDermott is clearly a superb head coach, however McDaniel seems very a lot able to make his case that he’s on the identical stage. No benefit right here.

Accidents: Each groups are coping with just a few accidents, although most of them are both minor and/or to much less impactful gamers. Every staff does have one key participant unlikely to play on Sunday: outdoors linebacker Jaelen Phillips for the Dolphins and free security Jordan Poyer for the Payments. Not small losses for both staff, to make sure, however in any other case the groups ought to be capable to ship their A-teams on the market.

Climate: No worries. Forecasts are calling for a stupendous, cool, early autumn afternoon. Needs to be a fantastic day for soccer.

Different Issue(s): The true one right here to me is the current historical past between these two golf equipment. The Payments ascended to their present place as a prime AFC squad within the 2020 season, however actually their dominance over the Dolphins began late in 2018. The Dolphins received that season’s first matchup with Buffalo, however since then the Payments personal a 9-1 document towards Miami. And that one win was final yr’s fluky one the place the crushing South Florida warmth and humidity earned a sport ball by stomping down on a Payments staff that had in any other case been dominating. That was additionally the sport the place Matt Milano shoved Tua to the turf manner late (a blatant roughing the passer name, which earned him the whistle), inflicting his first concussion (not confirmed, I do know, however c’mon – everyone knows it). When Tua and the gang returned for the rematch in Buffalo, they virtually pulled off a fantastic street win, solely to return up a tad quick. The identical factor occurred within the Wildcard playoff sport just a few weeks later, when Tua was out once more and third-string QB Skylar Thompson virtually helped oversee a significant upset street win. My level is that the Dolphins are salivating to get a win over the Payments. And whereas the Fins are now not sneaking up on anybody – not after dropping a 70-spot on Denver final Sunday – that is about as huge a grudge match as they’re going to have at this stage. The Payments are actually good, intense, and will likely be working arduous for this victory. The Dolphins? The Dolphins have every thing to show on this one.

Prediction: Dolphins 34, Payments 24

That’s proper. I’m calling for a manner overdue, stable victory over the toast of the AFC East of the 2020s. I believe this one will likely be a extremely nice sport, and I don’t know that the Dolphins draw back till the fourth quarter. Nonetheless, I believe we noticed an offense final week that reached its final type. And that type is horrifying. The Payments protection is simply too good to get rolled something like Denver did, however I simply can’t see how they account for all the issues that the present Fins’ offense presents. On the opposite aspect, the Payments will stress the Miami protection for certain, however I really feel that the Dolphins’ D can hold Josh Allen and the Payments offense in relative verify. In verify sufficient, anyway, for the Miami offense to supply the scoring wanted for an enormous, early-season street win.

That’s the place I’m at, of us. Deliriously optimistic? Completely affordable? Am I in some way underselling our Dolphins? Hearth of a remark or two within the chat to allow us to all know the way you’re feeling about this matchup that’s about as huge as a September NFL sport can get.

Fins Up!!