UFC Vegas 56 gambling preview: Jairzinho Rozenstruik’s underdog chances and ‘Long Shot of the Week’

We’re again! After a short, one-week hiatus, the UFC returns this weekend for the beginning of a 12-week marketing campaign that can function 4 pay-per-view occasions, together with subsequent week’s UFC 275. However earlier than we get to that, the UFC has a 14-fight Struggle Evening occasion on the APEX headlined by heavyweights Alexander Volkov and Jairzinho Rozenstruik. Whereas there are a few different fascinating bouts on Saturday, a lot of the card is uninspiring. However there are nonetheless some fights price being attentive to from a playing perspective, so let’s take look.

As at all times, all odds are courtesy of our buddies at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Picture by Mike Roach/Zuffa LLC

Straight Bets

Alonzo Menifield, -235

Initially, this was not a combat I used to be circling for a wager. Nonetheless, information has come out this week that makes me completely wish to have motion down towards Askar Mozharov. Apparently, according to the good folks at Sherdog, Mozharov has been a bit shady along with his file, trying to pad his resume with wins and to take away losses. This week alone, Mozharov has already had a number of adjustments made to his file, and given the pace with which that is growing, extra may very well be coming. Now, this shouldn’t actually have an effect on a wager right here, however how can it not?

Menifield isn’t an important fighter, however he’s by no means as soon as needed to lie about something that has occurred on his resume. Given the whole lot at play right here, I’m taking a stab at Menifield, if just for the precept of it.

Alex da Silva, +145

I perceive why Joe Solecki is the favourite right here, however I feel that’s simply straight up unsuitable. Sure, Solecki is the higher wrestler, however he’s an extremely stiff striker, and da Silva is a stable grappler in his personal proper. I feel that on the toes, da Silva can ding up Solecki, and he’s a adequate wrestler and grappler in his personal proper to make Solecki work for something he does get. Add in that da Silva is just 26 years outdated, and I feel we are able to mission a level-up for him on this combat, which provides him an important alternative to money an underdog ticket.

Picture by Louis Grasse/PxImages/Icon Sportswire through Getty Photographs

Prop Bets

Jairzinho Rozenstruik by KO/TKO/DQ, +200

Coming off his shellacking by Tom Aspinall, I used to be shocked to see Volkov put in as a favourite on this bout. Volkov regarded noticeably gradual towards Aspinall, and whereas Rozenstruik could not have the identical pace, he’s the higher athlete and will nonetheless have an edge in that space. Definitely, Volkov has extra instruments within the belt to go to, however Rozenstruik’s energy, leg kicks, and common craft ought to make this near a 50-50 combat.

Rozenstruik is kind of a mix between Derrick Lewis and Ciryl Gane, two males that Volkov has misplaced to, and I feel he has an important probability to win this combat. That being mentioned, why wager Rozenstruik straight when 11 of his 12 profession wins have come by KO? The KO prop for Rozenstruik offers some additional worth that makes it too good to move up.

Movsar Evloev by Resolution, -200

Evloev is a big favourite on this combat for a cause: He’s one of many easiest prospects in MMA. Futhermore, it is a nice model matchup for him. God love Dan Ige, however he’s not an amazing wrestler, and Evloev is relentless in his takedowns and high management. That being mentioned, Ige is tremendously sturdy, and that’s the place the worth is available in right here. All 5 of Evloev’s UFC victories have come by resolution, and Ige has by no means been stopped earlier than. But the chances for Evloev by resolution are nonetheless remarkably low in comparison with the place a straight wager is. I really like the worth you’re getting with a prop wager right here, and can be positive with this serving as a parlay piece as properly.

Karolina Kowalkiewicz by Resolution, +165

This combat is the one I’m probably the most involved about, as a result of somebody has to know one thing I don’t. Kowalkiewicz and Felice Herrig fought again in 2018, and Kowalkiewicz received that combat. Since then, neither girl has received a bout, and Herrig has been out for practically two years. Given all that, I don’t perceive why this bout wouldn’t both be a choose’em, or Kowalkiewicz as a slight favourite. However right here we’re. Add in that Kowalkiewicz just lately moved to American Prime Group and appears to be reinvigorated, and all this strains up towards one other Kowalkiewicz win. However like with the opposite prop bets this week, why wager Kowalkiewicz to win when you’ll be able to wager her to win by resolution? 9 of her 12 profession wins have been by resolution, and Kowalkiewicz has NEVER completed a combat contained in the octagon. I’m taking the additional factors, and I really feel nice about it.

Picture by Ed Mulholland/Getty Photographs

Parlay of the Week

Kowalkiewicz/Herrig Goes To Resolution, -280

As mentioned above, Kowalkiewicz is solely not a finisher and furthermore, neither is Herrig. 9 of her 15 careers wins have been by resolution, and solely two of these stoppages have come within the UFC. Additionally, each girls are extraordinarily sturdy, with Herrig solely having one stoppage loss, and Kowalkiewicz with solely three. Two girls who’re robust to complete and aren’t nice finishers, provides as much as one parlay leg cashed.

Erin Blanchfield, -490

This line is flirting with being a bit too excessive just because JJ Aldrich is a stable fighter and Blanchfield is so younger, however I feel Blanchfield is a future champion within the flyweight division (as soon as Valentina Shevchenko retires) and I’m able to strap on the boots and journey the rocket ship to the highest. Blanchfield ought to be capable to win this on the toes or on the ground, and proceed her meteoric rise.

Parlay these two bets collectively for -158 odds.

Picture by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC

Lengthy Shot of the Week

Volkov/Rozenstruik Ends Between 00:00 and 00:59 of Spherical 4, +10,000

This can be a whole shot at the hours of darkness, however man is it a enjoyable one. I’ve by no means finished considered one of these earlier than, however for a card the place there may be little or no worth, now feels just like the time to present it a whirl. I’m not going to fake to have any actual cause for this time both. That is straight vibes. It in all probability received’t hit, however the first minute of the fourth spherical of the primary occasion goes to be completely RIVETING for me, and that’s what I’m in it for with this one.

Wrap Up

It was a very good week final day out, cashing three underdog tickets and netting a tidy revenue. This week we’re taking just a few extra fliers however hopefully we are able to nonetheless financial institution some items. Ensure to take a look at No Bets Barred for an excellent deeper dialogue about a few of these bets in case you haven’t already. In any other case, let’s go!

Good luck y’all, and gamble responsibly!

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