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MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s high bouts. At present, we have a look at the primary card for UFC Battle Evening 209.
UFC Fight Night 209 takes place Saturday at Accor Area in Paris. The principle card airs on ESPN+ starting at 3 p.m. ET following prelims at midday ET.
Final occasion’s outcomes: 3-2
Total picks for UFC primary playing cards in 2022: 86-51-1
Welcome to MMAJunkie’s Fast Picks and Prognostications, the place I’ll be giving temporary, fight-day breakdowns for UFC primary playing cards.
With that in thoughts, I hope these write-ups don’t come off as curt or dismissive, as my objective right here is to supply fast picks and evaluation in a digestible format. All odds listed are supplied by Tipico Sportsbook.
If you happen to’d like extra detailed evaluation from me, then be at liberty to take a look at my weekly present, The Defend Ya’ Neck Podcast.
So, with out additional ado…
Charles Jourdain (-160) vs. Nathaniel Wooden (+125)
I’m unsure if hell has formally frozen over, nevertheless it’s good to see the present UFC matchmakers lastly return to Joe Silva’s sure-fire methodology of opening primary playing cards with both light-weight or featherweight fights.
Nathaniel Wood has moved up from the bantamweight division, whereas Charles Jourdain is trying to bounce again from a aggressive loss to Shane Burgos.
I’m an enormous fan of Wooden’s entrance kicks and boxing on the ft, however suspect that Jourdain’s assaults from his southpaw stance will pose issues for the English fighter given his historical past with strikes from the left aspect. Add in Wooden’s propensity to decelerate within the remaining body (a spot the place Jourdain reigns supreme), and I can’t assist however see a basic round-three end for the Canadian fighter.
William Gomis (-230) vs. Jarno Errens (+175)
Simply while you thought we had been gonna return to five-fight primary playing cards, the UFC decides so as to add random regional expertise to the primetime portion of their manufacturing.
Of their protection, this featherweight attraction between William Gomis and Jarno Errens must be enjoyable for so long as it lasts. Each fighters aren’t afraid to strike or spin on the ft, all whereas holding serviceable floor expertise of their again pockets.
That stated, Gomis seems to be the marginally sharper get together throughout, as I’ll reluctantly aspect with him to win by determination.
Nasrat Haqparast (-240) vs. John Makdessi (+180)
In what seems like a slew of adverse fights to name, Nasrat Haqparast meets John Makdessi on the primary card.
Haqparast has had a tricky run that there are many explanations for, however the 27-year-old is undoubtedly in a must-win place this weekend. Haqparast faces one other stiff veteran take a look at in Makdessi, who’s a talented striker with “alligator blood” given his skill to hold round within the UFC’s deepest division for therefore a few years.
Despite the fact that I might see Makdessi’s jabs and counters offering issues for his youthful foe down the stretch, I believe that the judges will give the nod to Haqparast for his energy photographs from the southpaw stance.
Alessio Di Chirico (-110) vs. Roman Kopylov (-114)
Serving as one other arduous battle to name is a middleweight assembly between Alessio Di Chirico and Roman Kopylov.
Each males are deceptively well-rounded regardless of finally struggling to seek out their footing within the group. Kopylov’s southpaw putting and quantity might be sufficient to edge out Di Chirico, however the Russian tends to begin too gradual for my liking.
I additionally suspect that Di Chirico will be capable of use his dimension and power edge to grapple if he chooses to, so I’ll reluctantly choose him to huge brother Kopylov to a call win.
Robert Whittaker (-220) vs. Marvin Vettori (+170)
The co-main occasion in Paris includes a enjoyable middleweight matchup between Robert Whittaker and Marvin Vettori.
Regardless of my appreciation for a fighter like Vettori, Whittaker stays somebody whom I’ve a tough time choosing in opposition to. Not solely is the previous champion 6-0 in opposition to UFC-level southpaws, however Whittaker additionally tends to do his finest work reverse fighters who stress and try takedowns.
Add in the truth that Vettori is about as un-killable as Blagoy Ivanov, and I’ll take Whittaker to roll by determination.
Ciryl Gane (-600) vs. Tai Tuivasa (+400)
The principle attraction in Paris includes a heavyweight showdown between Ciryl Gane and Tai Tuivasa.
As acknowledged in my in-depth breakdown, you must at all times suspiciously squint at traces north of a 2-1 unfold within the heavyweight division.
Gane might win this battle most of the time, however I consider that Tuivasa’s leg kicks and counters could make this battle so much nearer than what the present betting traces are indicating.
Add in Gane’s propensity to make use of the clinch to reset himself, and I’ll take a small flier on Tuivasa to attain an upset knockout in spherical two.
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