UFC 291 Gambling Preview: Is Justin Gaethje a live dog against Dustin Poirier?

This Saturday the UFC returns with its second pay-per-view of July with UFC 291 and the BMF title struggle between Dustin Poirier and Justin Gaethje. Poirier and Gaethje first fought in 2018 in a struggle many anticipated can be probably the greatest of the yr and boy did it ship, taking house Struggle of the Yr honors. Will the rematch do the identical and what different matchups on this 12-fight card ship each in high quality and in betting worth? Let’s leap into it.

As all the time, all odds are courtesy of our pals at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Photograph by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC through Getty Photographs

Straight Bets

Justin Gaethje, +125

I wrote a full breakdown of this struggle which you can learn right here however the gist of it’s this: this struggle guidelines and I’m not fully positive what’s going to occur. Within the first matchup, Gaethje seemed to be effectively on his option to breaking Poirier when an enormous left hand damage him badly and ended the struggle out of nowhere. Since then, each males have improved and this struggle might find yourself being much more electrical than their first encounter, however in the end, this struggle stays a coin flip matchup and as such, you’re getting just a little little bit of worth on Gaethje at plus cash.

Michel Pereira, +130

Within the featured welterweight struggle, Pereira takes on Stephen Thompson in a bout that ostensibly pits capoeira vs. karate, however in actuality in all probability finally ends up being a grappling contest. When he entered the UFC, Pereira was a wild, explosive athlete who was liable to gassing himself out by making an attempt backflip guard passes and leaping spinning hook kicks. However after shedding back-to-back bouts, “Demolidor” switched up his model, incorporating extra takedowns and veering away from the low-percentage, high-exhaustion strikes. In opposition to “Wonderboy,” Pereira is prone to do extra of the identical, going to his grappling sport to safe the win. As he’s gotten older, Thompson’s takedown protection has suffered, giving up 12 takedowns in his final three fights, and Pereira is sweet sufficient to take benefit and hopefully good sufficient to not danger a hanging battle.

Michael Chiesa, +120

In the principle card opener, Chiesa takes on Kevin Holland in Chiesa’s first struggle in nearly two years. That lengthy layoff could possibly be regarding in lots of conditions, however luckily for “Maverick,” this matchup may be very favorable. The e book on Holland for years has been his struggles with defensive wrestling, and whereas Chiesa shouldn’t be some All-American takedown artist, he’s nonetheless fairly good in that regard and he’s relentless in pursuit of them. Add in that Chiesa is a harmful prime participant and that strains up properly for him. Holland would be the extra dynamic and harmful striker, but when he can’t maintain issues upright, Chiesa goes to drown him.

Photograph by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC

Prop Bets

Jan Blachowicz by Choice, +350

Within the co-main occasion, Blachowicz takes on former middleweight champion Alex Pereira in Pereira’s first struggle up at mild heavyweight within the UFC, and I feel it’s a dreadful struggle for Pereira. Pereira is an completed kickboxer and one of many hardest punchers within the sport, however for as harmful as he’s on the toes, he’s the precise reverse on the bottom. Pereira has given up takedowns in nearly all of his UFC bouts, together with dropping one to famed wrestler Israel Adesanya. That’s going to be the beginning of all his issues.

Blachowicz is an especially well-rounded fighter, as able to competing on the toes as he’s at scoring takedowns and going to work from on prime. Blachowicz was capable of beat Adesanya (who’s a greater defensive wrestler and extra technical striker, albeit not as harmful) by working behind stable defensive fundamentals and relying closely on his floor sport. The identical is true right here and I like the previous mild heavyweight champion’s probabilities to grind a win out over quarter-hour.

Derrick Lewis by KO, +240

Lewis has misplaced three in a row and 4 of his earlier 5, so it’s no shock he’s an underdog in opposition to Marcos Rogerio de Lima on Saturday, however I’m nonetheless undecided he ought to be. For Lewis’ faults, his losses have all come in opposition to top-10 competitors, and whereas Rogerio de Lima has been successful, it’s not in opposition to the identical ilk. In spite of everything, in the event you pitted Lewis in opposition to Waldo Cortes-Acosta and Andrei Arlovski, he additionally in all probability appears good. And that’s in the end the distinction for me. Lewis has solely misplaced to top-15 competitors and I don’t consider Rogerio de Lima is in that tier.

If this struggle will get out of the primary three minutes, it might get very ugly because the altitude takes its toll, however even then, Lewis carries energy late. I’m selecting to consider in “The Black Beast” one final time. Should you don’t need to observe go well with, I can’t blame you.

Photograph by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC through Getty Photographs

Parlay of the Week

Bobby Green, -380

Inexperienced faces Tony Ferguson in what might simply be the saddest bout of the night. A former interim champion and at one level one of many best possible fighters on the planet, Ferguson has misplaced 5 in a row and seems to be utterly washed. Inexperienced is definitely previous his prime at this level, however we’re nonetheless speaking a couple of man who’s top-30 on the planet and has proven loads left within the tank. He’s going to field Ferguson up, the one query is whether or not he will get a end or not.

Gabriel Bonfim, -380

Bonfim is one other in an inventory of thrilling, undefeated prospects rising up by the ranks. At simply 25-years-old, Bonfim has demolished everybody he has confronted, together with some respectable competitors and Trevin Giles represents the following logical step up in his march in direction of the top-15: a veteran fighter who’s succesful however has proven clear liabilities that Bonfim can exploit, each on the toes and on the ground.

Jake Matthews, -245

I can’t appear to stop Matthews. Coming off his win over Andre Fialho, I believed Matthews had lastly put all of it collectively and nonetheless solely 28-years-old, the Aussie regarded like he had an actual run on the top-15 in him. As a substitute, he acquired rinsed by Matthew Semelsberger and now there isn’t any telling the place he’s in his profession. Nonetheless, in opposition to a really short-notice alternative like Darrius Flowers, who has an up-and-down profession and main defensive weaknesses, this appears like a “Purchase Low” spot for Matthews.

Parlay these three bets collectively for +131 odds.

Photograph by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC

Longshot of the Week

Derrick Lewis by KO/TKO/DQ in Spherical 3, +1800

Bear in mind when up above I wrote that this struggle could possibly be a tricky grasp if it will get past the three-minute mark? Effectively, that’s what we’re banking on.

Neither Lewis nor Rogerio de Lima are famend for his or her cardio and at elevation, each males are extraordinarily prone to fuel out shortly and switch this into essentially the most heavyweight of all heavyweight bouts. However in that state of affairs, Lewis nonetheless stays exceedingly harmful. Lewis has 5 third-round KOs in his profession already and if Rogerio de Lima appears for takedowns early, we’re effectively on our option to a late end from Third-Spherical Black Beast.

Wrap Up

We took UFC London off from playing as a result of, in all honesty, I didn’t have many bets. It was a skinny card and one which all of us will overlook quickly. Hopefully the identical received’t be stated about UFC 291 and we’ll all money some tickets.

Till subsequent week, benefit from the fights, good luck, and gamble responsibly!

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