UFC 276 gambling preview: Is Israel Adesanya a lock to beat Jared Cannonier?

It’s the Tremendous Bowl of MMA, with UFC 276 taking place Saturday on the T-Cellular Enviornment in Las Vegas. And befitting the most important week in MMA of the 12 months, the cardboard is completely stacked. The primary occasion is a middleweight title struggle between Israel Adesanya, the co-main occasion is a featherweight title trilogy bout between Alexander Volkanovski and Max Holloway, and the remainder of the cardboard options 4 different ranked fighters, one former champion, two future Corridor of Famers, and 6 extremely touted prospects. Each struggle on the cardboard is superb, so let’s get to it.

As at all times, all odds are courtesy of our associates at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Photograph by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC

Straight Bets

Max Holloway, +170 (37% Implied Likelihood)

That is the simplest guess on the cardboard to make. Volkanovski and Holloway have fought twice earlier than, and whereas Volkanovski gained each fights, the second was razor shut, with many individuals believing Holloway deserved to get the win. In that second struggle, Holloway clearly gained the opening 10 minutes, and although Volkanovski adjusted and scraped out a win, Holloway now is aware of he can do the identical once more. This struggle may be very shut, and so the chances needs to be considerably decrease, near a choose ‘em. As a result of they aren’t, taking a worth play on Holloway is an efficient guess.

Robbie Lawler, -120 (54.5% Implied Win Likelihood)

Whereas I can sort of perceive the logic right here, that is the road I used to be probably the most shocked by. Robbie Lawler is actually not in his prime, however Bryan Barbarena is a matchup tailored for him to look good in. Lawler’s latest struggles have all come in opposition to fighters who might take him down and did so repeatedly. Barbarena isn’t going to try this. He’s a tough-as-nails scrapper, however he doesn’t have the facility, variety, or acumen of Lawler on the ft, and as such, he’s going to largely get tuned up whereas coming ahead. I feel Lawler can win each a technical kickboxing struggle or a straight-up brawl, and so I like him to win.

Jalin Turner, -150 (60% Implied Win Likelihood)

I like Jalin Turner. I feel he’s an elite prospect for the light-weight division, and if he can proceed to make the burden (a giant query given how huge he’s), this can be a man who could make an actual run on the title. Turner is big for 155, a wonderful wrestler and grappler, and a particularly harmful striker. Add in that he’s an distinctive athlete and Turner has all of the makings of a authentic contender. At solely 27 years previous, Turner remains to be growing as a fighter, and Brad Riddell presents a problem as well-coached, savvy veteran, however Turner is just too harmful in all phases. He’s a extra lively and extra highly effective striker, and way more threatening on the bottom. Consider his charge of growth and this needs to be a popping out occasion for “The Tarantula.”

Esther Lin, MMA Preventing

Prop Bets

Sean O’Malley by Determination, +150 (40% Implied Win Likelihood)

This line has already dropped lots, which is sensible as a result of it needs to be even cash within the first place. O’Malley is a hyper-potent offensive drive, however he’s not recklessly aggressive and has been content material to easily out-point fighters earlier than, and that’s what he must do right here as a result of Pedro Munhoz is more durable than a coffin nail. In his 27 profession bouts, Munhoz has by no means been completed. Munhoz doesn’t have the footwork, pace, or quantity to maintain up with O’Malley, however he rattling certain has the chin to make him work the total 15.

Donald Cerrone by KO/TKO, +400 (20% Implied Win Likelihood)

That is in all probability the dumbest guess I made on the cardboard, however I can’t discuss myself out of it. Sure, Donald Cerrone hasn’t gained in his earlier six fights, and sure, Jim Miller is on a two-fight profitable streak, nevertheless it simply looks like that’s all smoke. Miller has been beating Contender Sequence debutants and unpolished rookies, whereas Cerrone has been dropping to among the greatest on the earth. When he will get a step again in competitors, in opposition to a man who’s equally as seasoned as he’s, I feel he’s going to show that he’s not totally washed, extra possible closely rinsed. Keep in mind, Cerrone and Miller fought as soon as earlier than and Cerrone delivered a devastating head-kick KO. If he did it as soon as, he can do it once more.

Esther Lin, MMA Preventing

Parlay of the Week

Israel Adesanya, -450 (81.8% Implied Win Likelihood)

I don’t know if y’all know this, however Israel Adesanya is fairly good at kickboxing. Like, he is perhaps the perfect we’ve ever seen at it in MMA. That’s a fairly powerful out for Jared Cannonier, who solely has two recorded takedowns in his whole UFC profession. Cannonier is an efficient fighter, however he’s in over his head right here. For a extra in-depth breakdown of this struggle, you can turn here, however the brief model is: I don’t like to make use of the phrase “lock” that usually, however I’d be shocked if Adesanya didn’t get the job carried out.

Andre Muniz, -320 (76.2% Implied Win Likelihood)

You ways I like Jalin Turner as a prospect? I like Andre Muniz much more. At 32 years previous, he could also be out of the prospect zone, however this man has been a monster since becoming a member of the UFC off the Contender Sequence in 2019. His final three fights have all been first-round submissions, together with doing so to Ronaldo Souza. In the event you can faucet Jacare, you may faucet actually any human being on the planet, and that features Uriah Hall.

Maycee Barber, – 285 (74% Implied Win Likelihood)

I’m not almost as excessive on Barber as some are (together with Barber herself), however I’m extremely low on Jessica Eye. Eye is sort of 36 years previous, hasn’t gained a struggle in three years (a bout she missed weight for), and wasn’t even an amazing fighter at her peak. Barber is much from a completed product, however she’s athletic, highly effective, and aggressive, and that needs to be greater than sufficient to win this one.

Parlay these three bets collectively for +116 (46.3% Implied Win Likelihood) odds.

Esther Lin, MMA Preventing

Lengthy Shot of the Week

Max Holloway To Win By Break up or Majority Determination, +1100

For all the explanations defined above, solely extra so. I’m genuinely shocked to see this line this excessive, on condition that their earlier struggle was a break up determination the opposite manner. Whereas I feel Volkanovski is barely higher, these two males are in a useless warmth, and with the Combat To Be Received By Break up or Majority Determination prop solely coming in at +350, this looks like worth.

Wrap Up

In the event you listened to No Bets Barred this week, you’ll know that Conner and I bought a bit of loopy, placing bets down on each single struggle on the cardboard. For this, I attempted to be barely extra accountable with my bets, but when there’s a struggle you need to gamble on that I didn’t counsel some motion for, give {that a} hear and perhaps me, Conner, or New York Ric have one thing you’ll like.

Benefit from the fights, good luck, and gamble responsibly!

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