Transaction Analysis: Reliever Roundup – Baseball ProspectusBaseball Prospectus

Picture credit score: © Rob Schumacher/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK

The Baltimore Orioles signal RHP Craig Kimbrel to a one-year contract with a staff choice, for a complete of $13 million assured.

One of many underrated features to the offseason is the sensation of seeing your favourite staff not signal somebody. Look, Kimbrel stays a superb reliever regardless of his status, a status he’s busy ruining for himself. By WARP he had his finest common season since 2017, working that WHIP again down into the 1.000 vary. He’s at all times going to stroll too many batters and put himself on that tightrope, however when he’s on his sport, he’s permitting 5 hits per 9 as an alternative of seven, and also you don’t have time to chew all of your fingernails right down to the mattress.

After all, the opposite a part of Kimbrel’s sport is that he’s going to select a sport each couple of weeks the place he will get knocked round. Kimbrel’s by no means been straightforward to sq. up—his profession BABIP is .266—and that’s most likely one of the best indication of whether or not he has it. In 2023, that quantity was .239. However when he does fall into contact, he’s immediately very mortal. His SLGCON final yr was .550, which is true round league-average, and proper subsequent to Matthew Liberatore.

However let’s not child ourselves. Common-season Kimbrel isn’t the story with this deal. What now we have as an alternative is one other instance of the Kershaw Conundrum: The groups that make use of Kimbrel are going to wish him much more for October than April. Since escaping staff management, Kimbrel has pitched within the postseason six occasions in eight seasons, and a type of different two occasions was the 2022 Dodgers, who merely opted to not use him. It’s a protracted offseason, however the streak seems prefer it’ll maintain with the 2024 Orioles, who must be taking a look at fairly robust postseason odds. After which:

This isn’t to say it’s a foul deal. It’s a wonderfully acceptable deal numerically, should you’ve achieved enlightenment and indifferent your self from the petty cares of this unfair and unfeeling world. Kimbrel is a high quality nearer, in sum, and that is what closers make. The Orioles wanted the improve with Félix Bautista out for all of 2024, and he’ll both arrange Yennier Cano, who stepped up admirably down the stretch final yr, or function the Confirmed Nearer. It’s simply… look, all of us watched the NLCS. You’re not getting that Kimbrel, essentially. However you might be paying for it to reside at the back of your thoughts all yr.