Top 25 Offseason Trade Candidates

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Whereas the offseason has gotten rolling, commerce season hasn’t fairly arrived. The Tigers acquired Mark Canha from Milwaukee within the largest swap of the primary couple weeks. In any other case, the GM Conferences merely served to set the stage for future transactions.

That’ll certainly contain some notable trades. Not like the summer season deadline, projecting which gamers will change palms is troublesome at this stage of the offseason. Apart from the A’s, there aren’t any groups clearly in rebuild mode. Golf equipment just like the Rockies, Royals, White Sox, Nationals and Angels have uphill paths to competition, but none has indicated they’re ready to punt on the 2024 season totally.

The Padres, Twins, Rays, Brewers and Guardians are all aiming to contend however have questions on their payroll. That’s normal working process for Tampa Bay, Milwaukee and Cleveland. San Diego and, to a lesser extent, Minnesota have proven a willingness to spend in recent times however are scaling again — in each circumstances, probably tied to their unsure native tv rights contracts.

That informs the offseason commerce panorama, which is headlined by a couple of stars deep into their arbitration home windows. With out many clear rebuilders, it’s attainable we see extra swaps of massive leaguers at positions of want between groups that anticipate to compete.

Earlier than we get to the record, a word on methodology. This isn’t a strict rating of gamers’ commerce worth, neither is it solely about chance of being moved. We’re making an attempt to steadiness each of these issues, an inherently subjective train. All projected salaries for arbitration-eligible gamers are courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz.

1. Juan Soto, LF, Padres

Apart from Shohei Ohtani’s free company, there could also be no greater story of the offseason than Soto’s future in San Diego. He’s coming into his ultimate yr of membership management, projected for a $33MM wage that may be the very best ever for an arbitration-eligible participant. The Padres are scaling again payroll, maybe as a lot as $50MM. They want a number of beginning pitchers and will stand to improve at first base and/or designated hitter.

Buying and selling Soto would enable the Friars to recoup MLB-ready expertise whereas clearing important spending room for a number of smaller additions. It could even be a devastating blow to the lineup. Soto overcame a comparatively sluggish begin (by his requirements) to hit .275/.410/.519 with 35 dwelling runs this yr. The Padres are nonetheless motivated to win within the quick time period. Barring what can be a shocking run at Ohtani, they’re not going to accumulate anybody higher than Soto.

President of baseball operations A.J. Preller continues to maintain they’ll discover a long-term deal. There’s nothing to recommend an extension is especially probably. Soto rejected a $440MM provide from the Nationals earlier than he was traded on the 2022 deadline. The value would solely be larger now that he’s a yr and a half nearer to free company. Within the absence of an extension or a definitive declaration that Soto is off the commerce market, hypothesis will linger. Alden González of ESPN wrote final week that many all through the business consider the three-time All-Star shall be out there.

2. Corbin Burnes, SP, Brewers

3. Willy Adames, SS, Brewers

Burnes and Adames are tied along with good cause. They’re each yr from the open market and projected for a noteworthy arbitration wage — $15.1MM for Burnes, $12.4MM for Adames. Milwaukee is reportedly open to offers on nearly all of the roster.

A former Cy Younger winner, Burnes could also be one of the best pitcher out there in commerce. The fitting-hander posted a sub-3.00 ERA every season from 2020-22. His 3.39 mark throughout 193 2/3 innings this previous season wasn’t fairly so dominant however remains to be high-end manufacturing. Burnes struck out slightly below 26% of opposing hitters. Whereas his lowest mark since his rookie season, that’s nonetheless an above-average determine.

Adames is coming off a much less spectacular yr. The 28-year-old hit .217/.310/.407 by 638 journeys to the plate. That’s barely below-average offense, though he nonetheless linked on 24 dwelling runs. Adames is a wonderful defensive shortstop with plus energy in an offseason the place there are primarily no free agent shortstops of word. Even with a mediocre on-base proportion, he’d generate loads of curiosity.

4. Shane Bieber, SP, Guardians

Develop high-end beginning pitching, commerce a prime starter as they grow to be costlier, exchange him with gifted youthful arms. The Guardians have trodden this path with Corey Kluber, Mike Clevinger and Carlos Carrasco. Bieber, one yr from free company with a projected $12.2MM wage, may very well be subsequent.

Cleveland has the likes of Tanner Bibee, Gavin Williams, Logan Allen, Triston McKenzie and Cal Quantrill (himself a possible commerce candidate) as rotation choices. Whereas Bieber is not a Cy Younger caliber pitcher, he turned in a 3.80 ERA with a below-average however serviceable 20.1% strikeout price over 21 begins this previous season. Bieber misplaced a great chunk of the second half to elbow irritation however returned to make two appearances in late September.

5. Tyler Glasnow, SP, Rays

The Rays signed Glasnow to an extension in August 2022 when he was finishing his rehab from Tommy John surgical procedure. The massive right-hander is ready to make $25MM subsequent season, the most important single-year wage in franchise historical past. That naturally results in questions on whether or not the Rays are ready to fulfill that determine, notably in an offseason the place they’ve a loaded arbitration class.

In the event that they made him out there — and he’s already surfaced in rumors — Glasnow can be a really interesting goal. He was fairly good this yr, working to a 3.53 ERA whereas placing out greater than a 3rd of opponents over 21 begins. An indirect pressure price him the primary two months of the season, however he averted the injured record thereafter. He’s a yr away from free company, making one other extension with Tampa Bay seem unlikely. But dealing him would symbolize a tricky blow to the Rays’ possibilities of competing in 2024. They’re already down Shane McClanahan for your complete season and shall be with out Jeffrey Springs and Drew Rasmussen for a minimum of a great portion of the yr. Whereas they’d probably deliver again some type of MLB assist as a part of a Glasnow commerce return, the rotation depth may very well be an issue.

6. Dylan Cease, SP, White Sox

Stop had a disappointing follow-up to his Cy Younger runner-up marketing campaign. He allowed a 4.58 ERA over 177 innings this previous season. That’s almost two and a half runs larger than his glowing 2.20 mark of the prior yr. As is usually the case, his true expertise in all probability lies someplace within the center. Stop nonetheless missed loads of bats — 27.3% strikeout price, 13.6% swinging strike proportion — whereas issuing a couple of extra walks than splendid. His fastball averaged 95.6 MPH, down a tick from the previous season.

The fitting-hander has proven the flexibility to pitch at an ace-caliber degree. He’s two seasons from free company and projected for an $8.8MM arbitration wage, making him extra reasonably priced than the opposite high-end beginning pitchers close to the highest of this record. The additional yr of management in all probability offers him extra commerce worth than any of Burnes, Bieber or Glasnow. It additionally makes him much less prone to be traded this offseason.

First-year GM Chris Getz has instructed nobody on the roster is actually untouchable, an comprehensible strategy for a crew that simply misplaced 101 video games. Neither proprietor Jerry Reinsdorf nor Getz has known as this a rebuild, although. Any slim hopes the White Sox might have of competing in 2024 can be dashed by buying and selling Stop, the one above-average beginning pitcher on the roster.

7. Alex Verdugo, RF, Pink Sox

Verdugo’s identify has been floated in commerce rumors for a couple of seasons. The Pink Sox have held onto him so far. They’ve a brand new baseball operations chief in Craig Breslow, who has acknowledged the crew has gotten early calls on the left-handed hitting outfielder. Jarren Duran and Masataka Yoshida additionally hit from the left facet. Dealing Verdugo might free some at-bats for a right-handed addition whereas maybe bringing in fast assist for the pitching employees or at second base.

MLBTR tasks Verdugo for a $9.2MM wage in his ultimate season of arbitration. He’s coming off one other league-average offensive exhibiting, when he hit .264/.324/.421 with 13 dwelling runs by 602 plate appearances. Verdugo hasn’t grow to be the All-Star participant the Sox envisioned when constructing the Mookie Betts return round him. He’s a strong common, a high-contact hitter who charges as an honest defender in proper subject.

8. Trent Grisham, CF, Padres

9. Ha-Seong Kim, 2B, Padres

If the Padres maintain Soto, dealing Grisham and/or Kim may very well be an alternate technique of trimming payroll. Whereas neither goes to make anyplace close to Soto cash in 2024, they’re every on mid-level salaries of word. Grisham is projected for a $4.9MM wage in his second-to-last season of arbitration. Kim is slated for an $8MM wage and shall be due a $2MM buyout on a 2025 mutual choice at season’s finish. He’ll be a free agent subsequent winter.

Grisham has the additional yr of management however is the more severe participant. He attracts loads of walks however has hit beneath the Mendoza line in two straight seasons. He’s coming off a .198/.315/.352 line over 555 plate appearances. The enchantment is on the opposite facet of the ball. Grisham is an above-average defensive heart fielder, protecting him as a low-end common even when he’s greatest fitted to the underside of a lineup. San Diego might kick Fernando Tatis Jr. over to heart subject in the event that they dealt Grisham, releasing proper subject for a much bigger offensive risk than Grisham gives.

It’s the same story with Kim. Dealing him would free Jake Cronenworth to maneuver again to second base, opening first base for a greater hitter. It’d be powerful to switch Kim’s general manufacturing, although. He’s a plus defender at a number of infield spots. He hit .260/.351/.398 with 17 dwelling runs and stole 38 bases in 152 video games. Buying and selling Kim isn’t as damaging to the lineup as a Soto deal can be, but it surely’d be more durable than parting with Grisham.

10. Gleyber Torres, 2B, Yankees

One other participant one yr from free company, Torres is projected for a $15.3MM wage in his final arbitration season. That’s beneath his market worth however a notable determine for a bat-first second baseman — a common profile that the league has devalued in recent times. Torres was New York’s second-best offensive participant in 2023, hitting .273/.347/.453 with 25 homers by 672 journeys to the plate.

Even when they’re not fascinated about an extension, New York might maintain Torres for his ultimate season of membership management. They’re already mild on constant hitting past Aaron Judge. On the floor, buying and selling their second-best hitter appears counterintuitive. The massive query is whether or not the entrance workplace believes Oswald Peraza is able to moving into an on a regular basis second base function in 2024. In the event that they really feel the 23-year-old is prepared, buying and selling Torres to clear spending room whereas bringing again outfield or pitching assist is sensible.

11. Jonathan India, 2B, Reds

The Reds’ infield surplus has fueled commerce hypothesis on India again to the deadline. Cincinnati didn’t appear inclined to make that transfer midseason, pointing to India’s function as a clubhouse chief. Whereas that’s definitely nonetheless an element, he didn’t hit properly down the stretch and completed the yr with a middling .244/.338/.407 batting line. He’s a properly below-average keystone defender.

There’s an argument the Reds are higher off counting on an up-the-middle tandem of Matt McLain and both Noelvi Marte or Elly De La Cruz. Maybe the offseason is a greater time to think about shifting India for a back-end starter. The previous Rookie of the 12 months is projected for a $3.7MM wage and has three seasons of remaining arbitration management.

12. Eloy Jiménez, DH, White Sox

Jiménez not seems like a core piece for the White Sox. Varied accidents have stored him off the sphere all through his huge league tenure. He solely has two seasons of 100+ video games and hasn’t gotten to 500 plate appearances since his 2019 rookie yr. Jiménez was nonetheless a superb hitter when wholesome as lately as 2022, when he ran a .295/.358/.500 line over 84 video games. His manufacturing fell this yr, as he posted a .272/.317/.441 slash with 18 homers over 489 journeys to the dish.

That’s not particularly imposing for a participant who’s greatest suited at DH. But Jiménez has proven higher offensive upside that isn’t matched by many on this winter’s free agent class. If the Sox are ready to maneuver on, one other crew might look to purchase low. He’ll make a $13MM wage subsequent yr, the ultimate assured season of his contract. He’s assured a $3MM buyout on a $16.5MM membership choice for 2025 and the deal incorporates an $18.5MM crew choice for the ’26 marketing campaign.

13. Max Kepler, RF, Twins

14. Jorge Polanco, 2B, Twins

Minnesota president of baseball operations Derek Falvey has confirmed the crew is paring again payroll. The Athletic’s Dan Hayes reported the group might finish within the $125-140MM vary. For the time being, they’ve round $120MM in projected spending.

The Twins have a couple of methods to clear room. Buying and selling both Kepler or Polanco would accomplish that. The previous is making $10MM, whereas the latter is taking part in on a $10.5MM deal. Kepler shall be a free agent after subsequent season; Polanco’s contract has a $12.5MM crew choice for 2025 that comes with a $750K buyout.

They’re every good gamers. Kepler is a plus defender in proper subject who hit .260/.332/.484 with 24 homers this yr. Polanco was restricted to 80 video games however ran a .255/.335/.454 exhibiting. He’s one of many sport’s higher offensive second basemen and noticed some third base motion for Minnesota late within the yr. The Twins have Matt Wallner and Trevor Larnach as left-handed hitting nook outfield choices. They’re deeper on the infield, the place Willi Castro and Kyle Farmer (one other commerce candidate) are potentialities at second/third base behind starters Edouard Julien and Royce Lewis. Prime prospect Brooks Lee, the No. 8 general choose in 2022, isn’t removed from MLB readiness. The Twins might look to maneuver Kepler or Polanco for rotation depth or to herald a righty bat to steadiness the lineup.

15. Randy Arozarena, LF, Rays

Arozarena hasn’t been the topic of the identical degree of commerce hypothesis as Glasnow has. There’s an argument the Rays must be extra prepared to maneuver the All-Star outfielder in the event that they’re trying to create payroll room. Tampa Bay has higher depth within the outfield than they do on their injury-riddled pitching employees. Josh Lowe, Jose Siri, Harold Ramírez, Luke Raley and Manuel Margot are all readily available. (Margot has come up in trade rumors as properly.)

None of these gamers is nearly as good as Arozarena. Buying and selling star gamers for youthful expertise is acquainted territory for the Tampa Bay entrance workplace although. Arozarena is projected for a $9MM arbitration wage and controllable for 3 seasons. He’d have important commerce worth if the Rays have been to think about shifting him.

16. Mariners SP

We initially had Bryan Woo on this spot. It might simply as simply have been Bryce Miller or Emerson Hancock, so we’ll cheat and simply point out the Seattle rotation usually. They’re virtually definitely not going to commerce George Kirby. It’d take rather a lot to pry away Logan Gilbert. Shifting any of Woo, Miller or Hancock may very well be extra interesting for a entrance workplace that’s searching for methods so as to add long-term offensive upside.

None of that trio has even reached one yr of main league service. Hancock solely has three huge league begins underneath his belt. Miller and Woo spent extra time within the rotation this yr, beginning 25 and 18 video games respectively. They each turned in mid-rotation outcomes. Different golf equipment in all probability have differing opinions on which right-hander they like. (The Mariners probably have their very own slight preferences.) They’d all have important worth if president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto determined to maneuver one for a bat.

17. Dylan Carlson, CF, Cardinals

It was a little bit of a shock that Carlson didn’t change palms over the summer season. Varied experiences instructed the Playing cards have been making him out there as they appeared for methods so as to add a controllable starter. It didn’t occur, however the identical logic applies this winter.

Carlson has been surpassed by Lars Nootbaar because the beginning heart fielder. St. Louis wants a number of beginning pitchers and can probably usher in a minimum of one through commerce. Carlson in all probability has much less worth than he did earlier than the deadline. Not solely did he end with a mediocre .219/.318/.333 batting line, he underwent season-ending surgical procedure on his left ankle in September. There’d however be groups prepared to take a shot on a former prime prospect who appeared like a median or higher heart fielder 12 months in the past. Carlson is projected for a modest $1.8MM wage and has three years of arbitration management.

18. Paul Blackburn, SP, A’s

Blackburn is arguably essentially the most fascinating reasonable commerce candidate on the Oakland roster. The A’s have torn issues to the studs. They’re unlikely to compete throughout the two remaining years of Blackburn’s arbitration window. The fitting-hander (30 subsequent month) labored to a 4.43 ERA with an honest 22.4% strikeout price over 103 2/3 innings this previous season. He’s projected for a $3.2MM wage. A Blackburn commerce isn’t going to be an offseason defining transfer, however he has a great likelihood to be flipped to a contender looking for reasonably priced back-end beginning pitching.

19. Alek Manoah, SP, Blue Jays

Maybe no participant had a extra disappointing 2023 efficiency than Manoah. Inside one season, he went from Cy Younger finalist to primarily unplayable. The fitting-hander pitched to a 5.87 ERA over 19 huge league outings. His walks greater than doubled whereas his strikeouts fell from 22.9% to a modest 19% clip. He misplaced his spot within the Toronto rotation and was finally demoted to the minors. Manoah by no means pitched in Triple-A and acquired an injection in his throwing shoulder on the finish of the season.

How will the Jays proceed after that disastrous yr? Normal supervisor Ross Atkins mentioned final week the crew would give him “a strong leg up” on the #5 spot within the rotation. The Jays aren’t broadcasting a want to commerce him, though they wouldn’t be doing themselves any favors in the event that they declared they have been prepared to maneuver on. Dealing Manoah to herald a decrease upside however larger ground pitcher wouldn’t be a shock with the Jays firmly in win-now mode. The previous first-round choose is controllable for 4 extra seasons and received’t attain arbitration till subsequent winter.

20. Brandon Drury, 2B, Angels

The Halos signed Drury to a two-year free agent deal final winter. The righty-hitting infielder turned in a pleasant season, connecting on 26 dwelling runs with a .262/.306/.497 line throughout 523 plate appearances. Subsequent yr’s $8.5MM wage seems like robust worth, notably in an offseason the place the availability of up-the-middle gamers is skinny. The Angels in all probability aren’t kicking off a rebuild. They might do a shorter-term retool if Ohtani walks, or they might merely look to maneuver Drury for pitching whereas turning second base to Luis Rengifo and/or an exterior acquisition.

21. Brendan Donovan, 2B, Cardinals

Donovan is an extended shot commerce chance if the Playing cards transfer a controllable hitter for beginning pitching. He’s extra precious than Carlson and fewer prone to be on the transfer. On the similar time, he’d internet a clearer rotation improve if St. Louis have been to present him up — probably turning the center infield over to a mixture of Tommy Edman, Nolan Gorman and Masyn Winn in that situation.

The 26-year-old hit .284/.365/.422 with 11 homers by 371 plate appearances this previous season. A flexor tendon harm pushed him to designated hitter and finally required surgical procedure that ended his yr a pair months early. He’s anticipated again for Spring Coaching. If wholesome, Donovan brings wonderful contact abilities and a strong plate strategy. He’s a multi-positional defender who can play any of the corners along with second base. Donovan has 4 years of remaining management and received’t get to arbitration till subsequent offseason.

22. Christopher Morel, DH, Cubs

Morel is prone to be a divisive participant across the league. He has large uncooked energy and linked on 26 dwelling runs whereas slugging .508 in 107 video games for the Cubs. The fitting-handed hitter owns a .241/.311/.471 line in simply over 850 MLB plate appearances over the previous two seasons. When he’s sizzling, he can carry a lineup.

He additionally strikes out greater than 30% of the time and doesn’t have a defensive match. Morel has performed all three outfield spots and every of second base, third base and shortstop within the majors. He hasn’t rated properly anyplace. The Cubs used him largely at designated hitter this yr and have instructed they’ll get him first base run in 2024. That’s not an awesome match for a plus runner with top-of-the-scale arm power, but Morel hasn’t proven himself able to dealing with extra vital positions regularly.

How groups mission Morel defensively might influence each whether or not he’s traded and how much return the Cubs might obtain. As a primary baseman or DH, he’s a fringe common with a statistical profile that’d paint him as a lumbering slugger versus a dynamic athlete. If one other crew feels he can maintain his personal at second base or in heart subject, he turns into way more fascinating. The Cubs haven’t any urgency to commerce him. Morel is controllable by 2028 and received’t attain arbitration for a minimum of one other season. But president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer has alluded to the potential of a deal, saying final week that “one other crew may be capable to put him [at second base],” the place the Cubs have Nico Hoerner.

23. Christian Vázquez, C, Twins

Buying and selling Vázquez is one other route Minnesota might contemplate to clear cash. The Twins signed the veteran catcher to a three-year, $30MM free agent deal final offseason. He had a tricky first season in Minneapolis, limping to a .223/.280/.318 line over 355 plate appearances — albeit along with his typical model of wonderful protection. Ryan Jeffers simply surpassed him because the #1 choice on the depth chart. A $10MM per yr backup catcher is a luxurious for a crew making an attempt to trim wage.

Minnesota probably wouldn’t be capable to offload your complete deal, however they might attempt to shed round half the cash or tackle a smaller contract in return. Vázquez’s yr wasn’t a lot worse than a season that bought Omar Narváez two years and $15MM final winter, whereas Tucker Barnhart secured a two-year, $6.5MM assure regardless of a a lot lesser offensive observe report.

24. Luis Robert Jr., CF, White Sox

Robert has essentially the most commerce worth of any participant on this record. He may additionally be the least prone to transfer. Final week, Getz known as him a franchise constructing block and famous he had no plans to proactively store Robert at the same time as he left open the potential of listening to affords on anybody.

It’s not arduous to know why. Robert’s an elite defensive heart fielder who linked on 38 dwelling runs whereas hitting .264/.315/.542. It was the primary time he stayed wholesome for a 162-game schedule. The end result was a season that’ll get him down-ballot MVP assist. Robert is a prime-aged celebrity and, in contrast to Soto or Burnes, he’s nowhere close to free company. He’ll make $12.5MM subsequent yr, $15MM in 2025 and is controllable through $20MM crew choices for 2026-27. Buying and selling Robert would signify an entire teardown that the Sox in all probability don’t need. But the haul can be astronomical in the event that they determined to go in that path.

25. Pete Alonso, 1B, Mets

Alonso was the topic of early offseason commerce hypothesis. With the Mets projecting a much less energetic offseason and putting a precedence on 2025, it wasn’t out of the query he may very well be out there. Alonso is projected for a $22MM arbitration wage and shall be a free agent after subsequent yr.

New York has subsequently walked again a few of their statements a few attainable retool. They’re nonetheless aiming to compete in ’24 even when they’re signaling they received’t blow away the highest of the free agent market. First-year president of baseball operations David Stearns has twice publicly said he anticipates Alonso being the Opening Day first baseman in Queens. That received’t cease groups from making an attempt, however an offseason deal seems decidedly unlikely.

Others Of Notice

A’s: Seth Brown

Braves: Vaughn Grissom

Brewers: Adrian Houser, Devin Williams, Brandon Woodruff

Cardinals: Alec Burleson, Tommy Edman, Nolan Gorman, Tyler O’Neill

Giants: J.D. Davis, Mike Yastrzemski

Guardians: Josh Naylor, Cal Quantrill

Mariners: Ty France

Marlins: Josh Bell

Mets: Jeff McNeil

Nationals: Hunter Harvey, Lane Thomas

Orioles: Anthony Santander