Sorry for the Shakespearean title; the playoffs make me really feel overly dramatic yearly. This time, I used to be impressed by the markedly totally different approaches of the San Diego Padres and Philadelphia Phillies, who traded blows for 5 thrilling video games. The Padres (avatar: Juan Soto) work the depend and take walks. The Phillies (avatars: Nick Castellanos and Bryce Harper) sit useless pink and swing from the heels. Types make fights, to borrow a saying from a dying sport, and this one was dramatic.
It bought me to questioning: how totally different had been these two approaches, actually? It actually felt just like the Padres had been watching loads of hittable first pitches fly by whereas the Phillies swung at breaking balls within the filth, however that’s primarily based on my sentiment whereas watching the sport, sentiment that was certainly knowledgeable by each my pre-existing biases and the broadcasters repeatedly mentioning the disparity all through the collection.
I made a decision to give you a check case for aggression to kind issues out: swing price at first-pitch fastballs within the strike zone. Taking uncooked swing price is simply too reductive; pitchers react to opposing tendencies, so a swing-happier staff may see extra pitches exterior the zone, and thus swing much less, with out altering their method. Likewise, you can think about a set of beginning pitchers who merely couldn’t find; even when the Phillies had been keyed as much as swing at all the pieces, a fastball a foot above the strike zone ends in a take each time, what with Javier Báez lacking the playoffs and all.
Within the common season, these passive Padres swung at 45% of the first-pitch in-zone fastballs they noticed. The free-swinging Phillies swung at 43%. Wait, what? That’s proper – for the season as a complete, San Diego truly took the extra aggressive method. In the event you solely take care of the commerce deadline, when Soto introduced his count-working methods out west, they’re tied at 43.7%. Regardless of their totally different reputations and key gamers, the 2 groups attacked the pivotal first pitch equally.
Within the playoffs, that modified. The Phillies have swung at 53.8% of the first-pitch fastballs they’ve seen within the strike zone by three rounds of playoff motion. The Padres swung at simply 39.9%. That’s an enormous hole, one that implies there’s one thing to the differing methods the 2 groups play. It wasn’t simply sentiment; the 2 groups actually did behave in a different way of their collection.
To additional illuminate this distinction, I added a number of extra classes. Right here’s every staff’s swing price divided by location and pitch kind:
0-0 Swing Fee by Pitch Sort and Location
| Crew | Fastball, Zone | Fastball, OOZ | Secondary, Zone | Secondary, OOZ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phillies | 53.8% | 20.5% | 43.5% | 28.6% |
| Padres | 39.9% | 13.5% | 48.9% | 12.9% |
In plain English, the Phillies had been extra aggressive nearly throughout the board, however the Padres swung extra typically once they bought early secondary pitches to hit. That’s probably no coincidence; they noticed a whopping 92 secondaries within the zone to start out at-bats within the playoffs, 23 greater than the closest trailer (the Phillies, naturally sufficient). When pitchers are attacking a staff in a predictable means, it’s hardly a shock that they’d alter to that considerably; they swung at simply 36.5% within the Soto-era common season.
This solely raised additional questions for me. Specifically: who was proper? By one simplistic measure, it was the Phillies. They’ve seen 388 first pitches, and per Baseball Savant accrued 5.6 runs above common on these pitches. The Padres noticed 446 first pitches and stacked up simply 2.8 runs of worth. Run worth considers how a lot the results of every pitch modifications a staff’s run expectancy. Taking a ball is nice. Taking a strike is dangerous. Hitting a double is nice; hitting a homer is even higher. So case closed; be like Philadelphia and go wild.
Solely, that’s ignoring numerous context, and context actually issues right here. For instance, the Phillies have generated 11.3 runs above common within the playoffs as a complete, simply essentially the most within the postseason. The Padres totaled 3.4 runs under common throughout all postseason at-bats. Groups as a complete have been under common this yr; offense has been means down. Actually, by Baseball Savant’s reckoning, the Phillies are the one staff to accrue constructive runs above common within the postseason, interval.
That signifies that in all counts apart from the primary pitch of every at-bat, the Padres had been a lot worse than the Phillies. Their method truly labored for them, comparatively talking. Put one other means, the Padres bought into 1-0 counts extra regularly than the Phillies, and 0-1 counts much less regularly. In addition they put the ball into play extra regularly regardless of swinging much less regularly; that’s as a result of fewer of their swings had been at dangerous pitches, naturally sufficient. Actually, regardless of their status for endurance, the Padres had the second-highest price of honest contact on the primary pitch throughout your complete playoff area.
However wait, as a result of it’s nonetheless not over. When the Phillies made contact, they made it depend. They hit .400 with an .844 slugging share once they put the primary pitch into play. The Padres had been no slouches there; they solely hit .271, however with a .576 slugging share, they usually did it in quantity. For an offense that slugged .366 total, and .531 on contact, the primary pitch was a godsend.
One other wrinkle: the Padres had been sure to hit pretty properly on first pitches, as a result of these first pitches had been typically within the strike zone. They noticed the second-highest price of first-pitch strikes, behind solely the Braves. In the meantime, the Phillies have seen a roughly common quantity; Padres pitchers, specifically, threw loads of secondary pitches and averted the strike zone. Philly swung away and accepted the additional strikes; as we discovered above, it nonetheless labored for them due to their prodigious energy on contact.
Was this collection a referendum on whether or not it’s best to come out swinging or wait to your pitch? I’d argue that it was primarily the other. The Phillies gripped it and ripped it; they didn’t sit round ready for the sport to come back to them. The Padres went full Soto, sitting on explicit pitches and places and accepting strikes in the event that they didn’t get what they needed, whereas racking up favorable counts when opposing pitchers missed the zone.
The approaches couldn’t be extra totally different. The outcomes? Nicely, the Phillies have had the perfect offensive outcomes on the primary pitch this postseason. The Padres? They’re second. There’s a couple of solution to deal with your self on the plate. The primary pitches of this collection didn’t decide the end result; the groups performed to a draw there, and the Phillies simply plain out-hit the Padres in the long run.
You may’t cut back baseball to a single black and white resolution. That doesn’t imply it isn’t enjoyable to strive. I completely love how totally different every staff’s method to hitting was, and but how properly each labored. For the report, the Padres and Phillies had been each middling on the primary pitch this yr. Within the common season, the Phillies had been 1.6 runs under common on first pitches. The Padres had been 1.9 runs above common. In the long term, maybe neither method is true. This October, they each are.
