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With the choice of Kenneth Walker lll on this yr’s draft, the Seattle Seahawks now have one among if not essentially the most crowded working again rooms within the NFL. It options Chris Carson, who’s rushed for over 1,100 yards in his profession twice and has averaged 4.6 yards per carry all through his tenure with the Seahawks. It additionally has former first-round decide Rashaad Penny who regardless of solely having 1,572 profession speeding yards, 749 of which got here final season, has averaged 5.6 yards per carry over the course of his profession. So, with a working again room that’s this crowded, what are a couple of of the eventualities that may play out (assuming everybody stays wholesome for 17 video games)?
Choice #1: Penny turns into the bell cow
Final yr in a really restricted workload attributable to accidents Penny lastly confirmed a few of what made him a first-round decide by Seattle in 2018. It’s tough to check him changing into a real 300+ carry bell cow working again that we noticed with Shaun Alexander approach again within the early 2000s however a 240+ carry season is actually not out of the query. Penny appeared in 10 video games final yr with a complete of 119 carries, an 11.9 speeding makes an attempt per recreation common places him at 202 carries over the course of a 17-game season. An uptick of that nature is actually not one thing that’s out of the query, particularly if he has a couple of 20-carry video games early within the season.
Seattle additionally probably has a bit extra motivation to go this route with Penny for 2 further causes: the primary being he’s in one other contract yr, and as we’ve got seen a number of groups do with working backs with a yr on their deal left, they may merely run him into the bottom after which let him stroll in free company. The opposite good thing about taking this method is it’s going to restrict the quantity of carries that Walker will get in his rookie season, which is able to enhance the chance that he’s an efficient participant if/when enjoying on his second contract with the Seahawks. Seattle drafted Walker excessive within the second spherical, that means they seemingly don’t view him as a one contract and accomplished participant and so they seemingly view him because the substitute for each Penny and Carson within the hopes he turns into the groups true bell cow again down the street.
Choice #2: The Penny/Walker 1A and 1B
This for my part is the probably state of affairs for the 2022 season. It will see Penny and Walker obtain about 75% of the carries with the duo seeing a cut up of 40/35 and Penny seemingly seeing the additional few carries. An consequence like this permits Penny to obtain a big sufficient workload to the place Seattle can get good worth for him while additionally getting Walker sufficient seasoning to the place he must be able to take over the beginning job subsequent season. On this state of affairs with projecting the group at 500 whole speeding makes an attempt, it will imply Penny would obtain 200 whole carries, a barely decrease quantity than State of affairs 1 which noticed him be the group’s true bell cow. Walker would then obtain 175 carries, which might permit him to make an affect on the offense as a second-round decide however would additionally assist protect him for the long run (assuming he will get only a few touches within the passing video games as effectively). This cut up would go away round 100 carries for Carson with the remaining totes going to depth working backs and Drew Lock/Geno Smith.
Regardless of getting into the ultimate yr of his contract, it’s actually tough to check Seattle working Carson into the bottom with simply how extreme of an damage he’s coming off of. A cervical neck pressure that requires surgical procedure is a really severe damage with there being some preliminary concern that it might be a profession ending damage. Limiting him to round 100 rushes would additionally permit him to maintain some extra burst all through the season. Seattle may successfully carry him in late in video games and briefly yardage conditions to virtually change into their nearer. When the opposing group’s protection is tiring out within the fourth quarter, bringing on a recent Chris Carson can be a really scary sight for any group. This state of affairs would additionally open the door to Seattle bringing Carson again on a one-year deal for 2023 if he proves to be efficient sufficient again coming off of his neck damage, as he can be beneath 300 cumulative whole carries between 2020-2022.
Choice #3 The even cut up
This state of affairs would see Penny, Walker and Carson all obtain round 30% of the carries which might equate to about 150 speeding makes an attempt per every of the large three backs. There are some main advantages to a cut up like this. It will maintain each single again recent all through the season — averaging fewer than 10 carries per recreation makes it slightly tough for a again to get worn down, which goes to be key all through the primary two and a half months of the season with Seattle’s bye not coming till Week 11. The second profit is it turns into very tough for defenses to really gameplan for an offense after they do not know who’s going to be the beginning working again that recreation and who’s going to guide the group in carries. It forces opposing groups to gameplan for eventualities through which each again is the work horse that week, which provides Seattle a key benefit as opposing groups will probably be pressured to gameplan for a number of eventualities which might be assured to not occur. The third profit is just not solely does it protect Walker for the long run it additionally opens the door to Seattle feeling extra snug in giving Penny one other contract with out having to fret about him coming off of a heavy workload season.
A 150-carry season in 2022 would solely give him 430 profession carries, which is a slightly miniscule quantity for a participant to have in his first 5 seasons — though a lot of this is because of accidents. For comparability’s sake, Chicago Bears working again David Montgomery who is identical peak and solely 4 kilos heavier than Penny already has 714 profession carries by way of his first three seasons.
Once more, all of that is predicated on the well being of all three working backs, notably Carson and his unsure future within the league.
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