Three Teams, Nine Players, One Surprising Winner: Examining the Sean Murphy Blockbuster

The Oakland Athletics are in quest of a brand new ballpark, both inside Oakland or elsewhere — almost definitely Las Vegas. If and when that involves go, the growing older Coliseum will in all probability be torn down. And right here’s the place the A’s lose me: They appear to be below the impression that their lively gamers should all be evacuated within the type of being traded to different organizations earlier than the ballpark is destroyed.

The Atlanta Braves have been in no hurry to disabuse Oakland of this notion, as they pried catcher Sean Murphy from Oakland’s clutches Monday afternoon as part of a three-team deal with the Milwaukee Brewers. 4 weeks in the past I wrote about the trade market for Murphy, made expendable in Oakland by the emergence of Shea Langeliers, who came visiting from the Braves within the Matt Olson commerce. Therein, I particularly famous the Braves as a crew that ought to not commerce for Murphy, owing to Atlanta’s surfeit of catchers: Travis d’Arnaud and William Contreras.

Positive sufficient, with Murphy coming in, not one however two catchers are heading out. Contreras is headed north, whereas third-stringer — and longtime Brewers backup — Manny Piña will go to Oakland. Speedster Esteury Ruiz can be headed down the John Jaha Freeway from Milwaukee to Oakland, and no fewer than 5 pitchers fill out this salad bar of a commerce: Freddy Tarnok, Kyle Muller and Royber Salinas from Atlanta to Oakland, Joel Payamps from Oakland to Milwaukee, and Justin Yeager from Atlanta to Milwaukee.

Right here’s the complete three-team, nine-player deal in desk kind, for readability’s sake.

9 gamers makes for a giant commerce, however nonetheless, let’s undergo every title in no less than some element earlier than drawing conclusions.

The 2 greatest names on this commerce are Murphy and Contreras. Murphy, a former Wright State legend, has quietly emerged as probably the greatest two-way catchers in baseball. Quietly, as a result of up to now he performed on a small-market West Coast crew that simply misplaced 102 video games. If informal followers know Murphy in any respect, it’s from his viral hit-by-pitch earlier this season.

Murphy’s numbers are equally attention-grabbing. This 12 months, he led all catchers in plate appearances (612) and completed with a 122 wRC+, which was seventh amongst backstops who batted no less than 300 occasions. There’s no spectacular particular person factor to Murphy’s offensive sport, like Alejandro Kirk’s hit software or J.T. Realmuto’s basestealing. Murphy simply hit .250/.332/.426 with 18 dwelling runs whereas enjoying his dwelling video games in a pitcher-friendly ballpark.

However whereas different prime offensive catchers, just like the Contreras brothers, go away one thing to be desired defensively, Murphy’s protection can be among the many greatest at his place. In 2022, he was fifth in framing runs, third in total defensive runs, and likewise threw out 31% of opposing basestealers. He and Realmuto have been the one gamers to catch 1,000 or extra innings this season. Wanting Realmuto or Adley Rutschman, Murphy is about the perfect two-way catcher on the market. And since neither Realmuto or Rutschman have been accessible in commerce this offseason, he’s the perfect Atlanta may get.

Why would Oakland wish to commerce him? Nicely, along with the emergence of Langeliers, Murphy is 28 years outdated and sure for arbitration for the primary time this 12 months. That makes him terribly low cost to a crew like Atlanta, which has embarrassingly rich possession and an above-average payroll. Not so to the A’s, who in line with RosterResource at present have only one participant set to make greater than $5 million subsequent season. With three years left of crew management for Murphy, the time to deal him for a giant haul is now. (Whether or not the A’s really achieved that’s open for debate.)

Contreras can be probably the greatest offensive catchers in baseball in a small pattern. He hit .278/.354/.506 in 376 plate appearances in 2022. Offensively, he’s bought extra energy than Murphy however strikes out extra. Defensively, he’s not horrible, however at greatest he’s roughly common. Probably the most optimistic doable studying of Contreras’ transient massive league profession is that he’s a 24-year-old All-Star catcher who posted a wRC+ of 138 and has 5 extra years of crew management. That brings to thoughts a future no less than on par with what his older brother has achieved — stardom, briefly. Alternatively, he has fewer plate appearances in his whole main league profession than Murphy had this season alone; he’s made solely 106 begins behind the plate on the massive league stage; and he hit simply .215/.303/.399 as a rookie. In different phrases, he’s nonetheless younger sufficient that it’s affordable to anticipate some danger.

The third catcher on this deal, Piña, has by no means been a very good hitter, however he staked out a decent six-year profession with the Brewers as a catch-and-throw man, principally as a backup. Final offseason, Atlanta signed him to a two-year contract price $4 million a 12 months, however Pina appeared in solely 5 massive league video games earlier than wrist surgical procedure shut him down for the season in Could. (If this commerce is the way you discovered Piña not performed for the Brewers, welcome.) Piña is a perfect backup for an up-and-coming catcher like Langeliers, and with $4.5 million left on his deal, plus a $4 million participant choice for 2024, he instantly turns into one in all Oakland’s most costly gamers.

At this level of their careers, Murphy is a transparent improve over Contreras, although in 12 months’ time that may not be the case. And whereas catcher was hardly an space of want for Atlanta, significantly with d’Arnaud nonetheless on the crew, Murphy is by a long way the perfect and most dear participant on this commerce.

What this implies for d’Arnaud stays to be seen. The longtime journeyman appeared to have discovered a house with Atlanta, the place over the previous three seasons he’s hit .266/.324/.462. He’s nonetheless solely 33 years outdated, and has one 12 months plus a membership choice left on his present deal, every price $8 million. However d’Arnaud’s bat has been inconsistent all through his profession, and he’s by no means performed a full season; this 12 months, he hit his profession excessive with 426 plate appearances. His stroll fee additionally dipped to 4.5%, a profession low. Whereas d’Arnaud was excellent for a time-share with one other offense-first catcher like Contreras, he’s in all probability too good to be a full-time backup for a high-volume catcher like Murphy. A transition to DH, or a commerce, might be within the playing cards for d’Arnaud as effectively.

Two-thirds of the gamers who moved on this commerce are, after all, not catchers. I can’t declare professional information of all of the prospects on this commerce, however fortunately, supreme prospect potentate Eric Longenhagen can, and he was sort sufficient to share his experience for this text. Something insightful you see beneath is paraphrased from his notes:

First among the many kids is Ruiz, the 23-year-old outfielder Milwaukee just lately acquired as a part of the Josh Hader deal at this season’s deadline. Ruiz is among the quickest runners you’ll discover on a baseball diamond. He stole — and I went again and double-checked this quantity, it’s so ridiculous — 85 bases in 114 video games throughout two minor league ranges in 2022. He’s additionally proven energy now and again, and that mixture of bodily instruments makes him attractive to Oakland, a crew that’s pursued him since earlier than the Hader commerce. However his skill to entry mentioned energy in video games is generally restricted to pulling mistake pitchers, and Eric says the almost definitely final result for him is as a reserve outfielder.

In the meantime, each pitcher who moved on this deal is intriguing in his personal approach.

Muller is a giant, 6-foot-7, 250-pound left-hander, and a former second-round choose. He noticed restricted motion within the majors for the Braves in each 2021 and ’22, however in so doing burned two minor league choice years whereas accruing simply 46 days of service time. That makes him a clumsy roster match for Atlanta, which could use him as a no. 6 or no. 7 starter and has championship aspirations, however much less so for the A’s, who can simply stick him within the majors, give him 25 or 30 begins, and see what he’s bought.

And there’s probably fairly a bit there. Muller, says Eric, will not be as wild as his 13.1% profession main league stroll fee would counsel. In Triple-A this 12 months, he threw his fastball within the mid-90s, with a slider and curveball that have been each above-average-to-plus, in addition to a changeup. If Muller is able to beginning within the majors, Oakland will certainly give him a possibility to show it. If he leads to the bullpen, no less than A.J. Puk will be capable to inform him the place a person that dimension buys garments within the Bay Space.

The A’s appear to have combed Atlanta’s system for Absolute Items and picked the 21-year-old righty Salinas, whom Eric describes as a “husky man.” Salinas sits 94-95 with a superb slider and a seldom-used curveball that will get an elite swing-and-miss fee. In 2022, he made 25 begins throughout two ranges of A-ball and struck out 175 batters in simply 109 innings; it’s straightforward to see why Oakland likes him. The drawbacks: 63 walks in those self same 109 innings, and substantial reliever danger due to an absence of athleticism in addition to a excessive stroll fee. However his breaking stuff is so good that if he finally ends up airing out within the ‘pen, he may turn into an excellent reliever.

Tarnok is a lanky 6-foot-3 former two-way participant whose main league expertise involves a grand whole of three batters confronted. He, too, sits within the mid-90s with a changeup with good arm-side motion, in addition to a mid-70s curveball he can use as a get-me-over pitch. Eric believes Tarnok is one other man who may thrive if his velocity jumps within the bullpen.

Along with Contreras, Milwaukee receives two reduction pitchers: Payamps and Yeager. Payamps is 28 years outdated and has made 82 massive league appearances for 4 groups over the previous 4 seasons. Since signing as an beginner free agent out of the Dominican Republic in 2010, he’s modified groups eight occasions — as soon as after being launched, as soon as after being bought by the Royals from the Blue Jays final 12 months, 5 occasions by way of waivers, and now as a part of a commerce for the primary time. That should be a brand new and thrilling expertise for him.

That transaction historical past ought to provide you with an concept of what Payamps brings: He’s an arm. He doesn’t strike anybody out, however he will get groundballs and his justifiable share of popups. After 113 profession massive league innings, he has a FIP of 4.19 however an ERA of three.35. My idea is that he got here to be on the A’s by telling the ballpark safety employees that he was Yusmeiro Petit, and his deception was solely revealed when he began throwing 95 and never 88.

Yeager, 24, is a former Thirty third-round select of Southern Illinois. He’s skirted across the periphery of true prospectdom, however he can hit 98 together with his fastball and backs it up with a tough slider within the excessive 80s, and each pitches gained velocity prior to now 12 months. If he can throw each pitches for strikes, he might be a helpful center reliever.

Should you skipped all of the prospect stuff in quest of the massive image takeaway and sizzling takes, right here you go.

From the Braves’ perspective: If I have been Alex Anthopoulos, I’m undecided I might’ve used my commerce capital to improve a place the place Atlanta was already robust. However with that mentioned, there’s an opportunity Contreras won’t ever be this good once more and d’Arnaud is about to say no. And whereas all 4 pitchers Atlanta traded are attention-grabbing ultimately or different, none is the type of prospect I’d lose sleep over shifting. All 4 are extra helpful to Oakland or Milwaukee than they’d be to the Braves.

And whereas I often discover “they bought the perfect participant within the commerce”-type evaluation a bit reductive, Atlanta completely bought the perfect participant within the commerce. Murphy is an absolute stud who’s below crew management for 3 extra years and can make relative peanuts that entire time. That’s now an outline that matches someplace between 5 and 7 of Atlanta’s beginning place gamers and no less than two of Atlanta’s beginning pitchers. That’s a great place to be in.

The Braves are the crew whose return from this commerce I really feel most ambivalent about. Oakland…I get what the A’s are doing, and I hate it. If Ruiz grows into his energy and turns right into a perennial 30-30 man, the A’s will appear like geniuses. Actually the numbers from the excessive minors this season are spectacular: In Double- and Triple-A mixed, he hit .332/.447/.526 with 16 homers, 33 doubles and — once more, for these within the again — 85 stolen bases. But when he have been more likely to hit like that within the majors, he wouldn’t have gotten traded twice prior to now 5 months, as soon as by a crew that picked him up for a particularly broken-looking reduction pitcher and bought an opportunity to see him in their very own system.

And whereas all three of Oakland’s new pitchers have potential, until one in all them takes an enormous leap ahead, having all three turn into fairly good relievers looks like a great final result. And since they’re all main league-ready and the A’s appear dedicated to buying and selling anybody who’s arbitration-eligible, that leap had higher come quickly. What this appears like, then, is buying and selling Murphy’s three years of service time, plus Payamps, for 3 massive league-ready prospects with a mixed 77 days’ price of service time, plus Salinas.

The listing of issues the A’s have achieved just lately to get slightly worse but slightly cheaper is lengthy, although this commerce doesn’t fairly match the meme as a result of Piña is projected to make greater than Murphy subsequent 12 months. Anyway, it’s price asking — and I’m not the only one to have this thought — why they didn’t simply take the youthful, cheaper catcher with massive offensive upside?

Contreras was adequate to catch for the Braves and makes a way more logical accomplice for Langeliers than Murphy given how a lot of his worth is in his bat. Contreras would’ve been Oakland’s greatest hitter in 2022 (minimal 50 PA) by 16 factors of wRC+ over Murphy and 21 factors over prime returning hitter Seth Brown. And he’s 24 and below crew management by way of 2027. That looks like a neater promote, significantly if the A’s may’ve persuaded Atlanta to half with, say, Muller as effectively.

As a result of now it’s time to return right down to Milwaukee’s position on this commerce. If you wish to know why your life is more durable than it ought to be, it’s best to turn into accustomed to an financial idea referred to as rent-seeking. Lease-seeking is the habits of middlemen, individuals or extra usually corporations that insert themselves between the individuals who produce items and providers and people who devour them, charging extra charges and exploiting regulatory loopholes whereas offering little or no extra worth to the proposition. Examples embrace: Medical insurance corporations, Ticketmaster, rideshare and gig economic system startups. Suppose sub-cable firm ranges of cost-to-usefulness ratio and also you’ll be heading in the right direction.

That’s how a lot the Brewers received this commerce.

Milwaukee is among the few groups that sits in the course of the Venn diagram of 1) having designs on competing in 2023 and a couple of) being almost as hard-up for offense because the A’s. They bought a middle-of-the-order bat, at a premium place and below crew management from now till the Solar swallows the Earth, plus a stay bullpen arm and a hard-throwing Double-A reliever. And all it price them was a younger outfielder they didn’t assume they may use. They inserted themselves right into a course of — Atlanta needs Murphy, Oakland needs rid of Murphy — and got here out approach forward whereas risking little. It feels prefer it ought to be towards the principles by some means.

As sophisticated as this commerce ended up being, the Braves and A’s each behaved — for good or unwell — broadly according to their reputations. The Brewers, in the meantime, can solely hope that every one of their trades find yourself being this fruitful.