Jorge Soler has all the time had huge energy potential. His energy was his carrying tool as a prospect, and he homered in his first big league plate appearance. Sadly, he’s had bother benefiting from his power all through his profession. For years, Soler was an “if he can put all of it collectively” form of participant. His uncooked energy was engaging, however accidents and inconsistency saved getting in the way in which. From 2014 to ’18, he hit simply 38 house runs in 307 video games, a tempo of 20 per 162.
Lastly, in 2019, all the pieces clicked. The 6-foot-4 slugger performed all 162 video games, walloping an AL-leading 48 house runs. He completed fifth within the league in slugging, third in remoted energy, and thirteenth in wRC+. His wRC+ went up each month, and no participant in baseball hit for extra energy over the ultimate two months of the season. He misplaced the Silver Slugger at DH to an ageless Nelson Cruz, however all the identical, Soler was lastly dwelling as much as the hype. There was even discuss of the Royals signing him to a long-term deal.
However that extension by no means got here, and Soler’s efficiency over the remainder of his Royals tenure dashed any desires he might need had of a profitable long-term contract. In 2020, his outdated issues got here again to hang-out him. He didn’t benefit from his energy, hitting solely eight house runs in 43 video games, and accidents saved him off the sector for a number of weeks in September. The next season began out even worse; in 95 video games with Kansas Metropolis, he hit 13 house runs and posted a feeble 77 wRC+. On the commerce deadline, the former home run king was sent to Atlanta for pennies on the greenback.
What occurred subsequent is the stuff of legend, not less than within the Atlanta metropolitan space. Soler crushed 14 homers in 54 video games, tied for eighth within the Nationwide League over the ultimate two months of the season. He stayed sizzling by means of October, hitting one other three house runs and incomes World Collection MVP honors. He wasn’t fairly as dominant as he seemed within the second half of 2019, however he re-established himself as a respectable energy bat. It was sufficient to internet him a three-year, $36 million contract with the Marlins that winter.
Sadly, his 2022 marketing campaign was an all-too-familiar story. But once more, it turned out Soler had not, in truth, “lastly put all of it collectively.” He managed solely 13 house runs and a 98 wRC+ in 72 video games earlier than accidents ended his season in mid-July. It appeared as if Soler was cursed to flirt with greatness again and again however by no means fairly reside as much as his potential, a punishment nearly Sisyphean in nature. It makes you surprise what he did to anger the baseball deities within the first place— steal fireplace for mankind? Lead a Titan rebel? Hit a house run on a 3–0 pitch?
Regardless, right here we’re, closing in on the midway mark of the 2023 season, and Soler seems like a demigod as soon as once more. We’re compelled to query if that is simply one other flash of brilliance or if he has overcome his curse in the end. He’s on tempo for 47 house runs, one fewer than his 2019 complete however in a decrease energy atmosphere. He’s placing out lower than regular and strolling greater than ever, and his 149 wRC+ ranks tenth in baseball and sixth within the Nationwide League. Not solely is he placing collectively the perfect efficiency of his profession, however he’s additionally been probably the most harmful hitters within the sport:
There’s no query that Soler’s efficiency is actual; you’ll be able to’t BABIP your option to 21 house runs in 69 video games. His barrel price, xwOBA, and xwOBAcon all rank within the prime 5% of the league, simply as they did in 2019. He’s additionally hitting extra balls within the air this yr, which is certainly a optimistic improvement. Groundballs aren’t of a lot use for a participant like Soler, so his 0.72 GB/FB ratio is sweet to see. Moreover, he has been extra selective on the plate this season, and his persistence is contributing to his success. That is the appropriate strategy for a participant like Soler, who generates most of his manufacturing with house runs and free passes. You’ll be able to’t stroll when you’re swinging the bat, and also you’re solely going to hit dingers when you’re swinging on the proper pitches.
Lengthy story quick, Soler has been an amazing hitter this yr, and he’s doing precisely what he ought to do to stay an amazing hitter: drawing his walks, limiting strikeouts, and barreling up the baseball. That being stated, there is one thing barely off about his high quality of contact numbers. His most exit velocity ranks among the many greatest within the sport, however his common exit velocity is his lowest since 2018; it’s nearer to common than elite. The state of affairs is analogous along with his barrel and hard-hit charges; he barrels the ball with the perfect of them, however his hard-hit price is extra middle-of-the-pack. I don’t imply to counsel this can be a drawback, as a result of Soler continues to be doing what he must do to succeed, nevertheless it’s definitely unusual. How typically does an influence hitter file fewer hard-hit balls throughout the perfect season of his profession?
In 2019, Soler’s common exit velocity and hard-hit price each ranked within the prime 3% of the league. They have been each within the prime 7% the next yr and the highest 21% the yr after that. But this yr, his common exit velocity ranks within the sixty fifth percentile and his hard-hit price within the sixty fourth. His hard-hit price is basically the identical because it was final yr, when he completed with a 98 wRC+; the final time his common exit velocity was this low, he was nonetheless only a struggling former prospect.
So what’s occurring? Why isn’t among the finest energy hitters within the sport hitting the ball laborious on a extra constant foundation? For one factor, Soler is making extra contact on pitches exterior the strike zone. His O-Contact% is as much as 59.6%; his profession common coming into the season was 49.1%. Pitches exterior the zone are tougher to crush, so Soler has a a lot decrease exit velocity on pitches put into play from exterior the strike zone. However his common exit velocity is decrease than regular on pitches within the strike zone, too, so this clarification isn’t ample. It’s additional proof as to why he’s extra profitable when he’s extra selective, nevertheless it doesn’t clarify why his common exit velocity is so low.
One other principle is that Soler is getting beneath the ball extra typically this season. When a hitter is attempting to restrict his groundballs, he’ll inevitably find yourself with extra lazy pop flies as effectively. Certainly, 30.2% of Soler’s batted ball occasions have been categorised as “beneath” this yr, considerably larger than his profession common. Unsurprisingly, these batted balls have a a lot decrease common exit velocity. However his exit velocity isn’t simply down on low-quality contact; it’s surprisingly low on barrels and stable contact, too. In different phrases, even the pitches he’s seeing and hitting effectively aren’t coming off the bat fairly as laborious.
Finally, one of the simplest ways to grasp Soler’s low exit velocity and hard-hit price is to separate up his season into three chunks. The Marlins’ DH acquired off to a sizzling begin over his first 20 video games earlier than falling off the tempo. He had a dreadful 11-game chilly stretch in late April and early Might earlier than busting out of his stoop. Ever since, he’s been nigh unstoppable. Over his final 38 video games and counting, Soler leads the NL in house runs, OPS, and wRC+. It’s additionally over his final 38 video games that issues began getting bizarre.
Throughout his first sizzling streak, Soler did all the pieces you’d anticipate from a red-hot energy hitter. From Opening Day by means of April 23, he had a 95.4-mph common exit velocity. His walks have been up, his strikeouts have been down, and he was hitting tons of fly balls. He hit 5 house runs and eight doubles in his first 20 video games. Then, throughout his chilly stretch, he struggled in nearly each respect. From April 24 to Might 5, his common exit velocity was a meager 86.8 mph. His plate self-discipline was terrible, and he couldn’t cease hitting the ball on the bottom. He additionally couldn’t get successful to avoid wasting his life; you don’t want to grasp superior analytics to know a 0 wRC+ is atrocious.
When Soler caught fireplace once more, he regained his plate self-discipline and stopped hitting so many groundballs. But his excessive exit velocity by no means got here again. Over his final 38 video games, his common exit velocity is 88.3 mph, barely larger than it was throughout his stoop. Regardless of that, his energy has returned in full pressure. He has 15 house runs since Might 6, and his barrel price is again in elite territory. Soler isn’t crushing each pitch he sees, however when he will get one, he actually will get one. His efficiency on Monday night time in opposition to the Blue Jays is an ideal instance: he demolished a third-inning pitch from José Berríos for a house run however then weakly flew out in every of his subsequent three at-bats:
Certainly, Soler’s magic method is all about benefiting from his barrels. And the way is he doing that with out added exit velocity? The one means he can: elevation. Essentially the most important distinction in Soler’s numbers between his two sizzling streaks this season (apart from exit velocity) is launch angle, and particularly, launch angle on barrels. Total, his common launch angle has really gone down throughout this newest stretch, however he’s hitting his barrels larger within the air. He has hit practically all of them in or across the candy spot between 24–32 levels — the optimum launch angle for house runs. It’s attainable he’s sacrificing a tiny little bit of bat velocity in order to regulate the trail of his swing higher. If that’s in truth his technique, there’s no arguing with the outcomes.
Soler has barreled 18 balls throughout this sizzling streak, 14 of which have left the yard. His 1.713 wOBA, 1.523 xwOBA, and a couple of.444 ISO on barrels is nothing wanting ridiculous, and for a three-true-outcomes hitter, it doesn’t actually matter what occurs on the remainder of his batted balls. By maximizing the standard of his barrels, he maximizes his potential as a hitter. His common exit velocity may be down, however his inventory as a slugger has by no means been larger.
