There’s a Hole in J.T. Realmuto’s Tool Box

I don’t suppose J.T. Realmuto ever obtained sufficient credit score for his outstanding season in 2022. It was simply the best efficiency of his profession. With 22 house runs, 21 stolen bases, and a 128 wRC+, along with his typical Gold Glove protection and trademark sturdiness, he produced a personal-best 6.5 WAR, claimed All-MLB First Staff honors for the second time and completed seventh in a stacked NL MVP race.

What made his 2022 season so spectacular have been the demographics of all of it. We’re not speaking a couple of heart fielder in his 20s; Realmuto’s 6.5 WAR was the very best for a daily catcher age 31 or older since Javy Lopez in 2003. As a matter of reality, solely 4 catchers have ever put up extra WAR in a single season after their thirty first birthday: Lopez, Gary Carter, Roy Campanella, and Josh Gibson.

That very same yr, Realmuto additionally grew to become the primary backstop to qualify for the batting title in seven consecutive seasons since Jason Kendall in 2009. Solely seven different catchers have achieved that exact feat within the divisional period (1969-present): Jorge Posada, Mike Piazza, Carter, Lance Parrish, Ted Simmons, Johnny Bench, and Thurman Munson.

Realmuto’s 2022 marketing campaign wasn’t simply one of the best of his profession; it was some of the extraordinary seasons by an older catcher in current reminiscence. I don’t suppose he ever obtained sufficient credit score for it — and consequently, I don’t suppose sufficient individuals understand simply how disappointing his follow-up efficiency turned out to be.

On the floor, Realmuto was stable if unspectacular in 2023. He knocked 20 house runs, swiped 16 bases, and led all catchers in video games performed behind the dish, ending as a finalist for the Gold Glove and Silver Slugger awards. However his 1.5 WAR was his lowest complete since 2015; he completed twenty first on the catcher leaderboard, tucked in between backups Victor Caratini and Freddy Fermin.

So what went flawed? The quick reply is just about all the pieces. His wRC+ declined by 26 factors, the Thirteenth-largest drop-off amongst certified batters, although at the very least his 102 wRC+ was nonetheless considerably above common for a catcher. Furthermore, he continued hitting for reasonable energy (.200 ISO, .208 xISO), and though his stroll charge dropped and his strikeout rose, his underlying plate self-discipline numbers have been secure. In the meantime, the opposite features of his sport suffered much more than his bat. No participant noticed a bigger year-over-year drop-off in baserunning worth (min. 100 PA) or fielding worth (min. 400 innings). I really feel like that reality bears repeating: By not one, however two central parts of the sport, Realmuto misplaced extra floor than every other participant in baseball. Have a look:

Operating and fielding metrics typically don’t stabilize as rapidly as hitting stats, so that they’re liable to wider swings from yr to yr. Nonetheless, for a participant as persistently glorious as Realmuto, a swing this massive warrants a better look.

Since his rookie season in 2015, Realmuto’s baserunning worth had by no means dipped under zero. From 2018 to ’22, he put up a mean of 6.67 BsR per 162 video games, and his complete in that point ranked third in baseball, trailing solely José Ramírez and Trea Turner. Then abruptly in 2023, he was a legal responsibility on the basepaths. Had been this every other 32-year-old catcher, it could be straightforward to clarify his damaging numbers as an impact of age-related decline. However Realmuto hasn’t misplaced a step:

As his 5 triples and 16 stolen bases — each tops amongst catchers — attest, Realmuto was no slowpoke in 2023. Overaggressiveness wasn’t a difficulty both: His 76% stolen base success charge was completely respectable. The issue appears to have been the polar reverse: an overabundance of warning. In accordance with Baseball Reference, he recorded a career-worst extra-bases taken proportion (XBT%) of simply 30% in 2023; league common was 42%, and he averaged 57% throughout his first 4 seasons in Philadelphia. Equally, Baseball Savant tells us he tried to advance in solely 36% of alternatives, his lowest charge since 2016. His development try charge above common, additionally per Savant, was the bottom of his profession. And whereas stolen base makes an attempt across the league have been up by practically 33%, he tried one fewer steal than he did the yr earlier than.

Realmuto and his legs have but to reckon with Father Time, however his age might be affecting his numbers all the identical. As he enters his mid-30s, maybe he’s exercising extra warning to protect his legs, forestall damage, and lengthen his catching profession. If it really works, it’s greater than an inexpensive trade-off. He is likely one of the greatest working catchers the sport has ever seen, however that doesn’t imply a lot if he isn’t really, you already know, catching.

About that catching, although. Realmuto ranks fifth amongst energetic catchers in profession defensive worth (Def); since his breakout 2018 season, he ranks third. However in only one season, he went from a deserving Gold Glove winner to an underserving Gold Glove finalist, the sort who makes you question whether or not Gold Gloves imply something in any respect. These aren’t the numbers of an ageing veteran struggling to carry his personal behind the plate, although:

As a substitute, his defensive woes have been concentrated in a single specific space: pitch framing. Realmuto was price -12.2 framing runs this previous season, the third-worst mark in baseball. His dreadful framing efficiency dragged down his WAR greater than the rest. But it surely wasn’t so way back that framing was simply one other one in every of his many strengths. From 2019 to ’21, he racked up 18.8 framing runs, the fourth-most in baseball. Then in 2022, his framing numbers dropped considerably, from 8.6 FRM the yr previous to 1.1. And this previous season, his FRM dropped once more, by practically as twice as a lot. That’s not only a hiccup; it’s a sample, and a regarding one at that.

Like every other ability, framing has an aging curve. Nonetheless, I’m struggling to chalk this as much as the pure ageing course of. Realmuto strikes and throws like an elite athlete. His dash velocity, arm power, pop time, most exit velocity, and greatest velocity have but to point out any signal of decline. His athleticism is unquestionable. And his sturdiness is a instrument in and of itself. He set a brand new profession excessive with 1,142 defensive innings in 2023, probably the most by a catcher since Martín Maldonado in 2017. And whereas he had a down yr general, he didn’t present any indicators of damage and tear because the season went on. In actual fact, his numbers have been virtually similar within the first and second halves. On high of that, he was glorious within the playoffs, beginning all 13 of the Phillies’ video games and crushing seven extra-base hits in 52 PA. That simply doesn’t sound like a catcher on the verge of breaking down.

Sadly, I don’t have an alternate reply for why Realmuto’s framing fell off a cliff. The almost definitely clarification is a little bit of ageing, a little bit of unhealthy luck, a little bit of random variance, and maybe some de-emphasis on framing within the Phillies group. They’d a devoted receiving coach when Realmuto first arrived in 2019; that coach, Craig Driver, worked closely with Realmuto on his framing expertise. Driver left the group after the 2019 season, and his fellow catching coach, Bob Stumpo, took a promotion to affix the participant improvement workers forward of the 2022 marketing campaign. It’s doable Realmuto is struggling with out the assist system he as soon as had. For what it’s price, former Phillies catchers Jorge Alfaro and Andrew Knapp additionally improved their framing below Driver, and present backup catcher Garrett Stubbs has been a horrible framer the previous two years.

When Realmuto signed with the Phillies, he sparked loads of dialog concerning the ageing curve for catchers. His detractors claimed he wouldn’t keep his star degree of efficiency lengthy sufficient to justify his contract; many thought he’d be enjoying first base or the outfield earlier than the deal was up.

After three years, it’s clear the doubters have been flawed. Realmuto’s deal was a cut price for Philadelphia, and he appears as hardy and wholesome because the day he first donned pink pinstripes. That being mentioned, because the veteran catcher comes off the worst season of his profession, it’s doable the cynics obtained one thing proper. If he can’t enhance his baserunning and framing numbers, the again finish of his deal might be marred by a steep decline in spite of everything.