Relating to stealing bases, the Central division leaders couldn’t be extra completely different. The Pirates rank first in baseball with 44 steals in 53 makes an attempt; the Twins rank final with six steals in 11. However for the previous ten video games, these two groups have been taking the same method. For the reason that finish of April, each have been ramping up their efforts, stealing much more typically than they did over the primary few weeks of the season. To be honest, which means one thing utterly completely different for both membership: for Pittsburgh, it means stealing at a price we haven’t seen in years; for Minnesota, it means merely stealing in any respect. In each circumstances, it warrants a better look.
In 2022, the Twins ranked final in baseball with 38 steals and 55 stolen base makes an attempt. Their group leaders in stolen bases, Byron Buxton and Nick Gordon, had simply six steals apiece. The Rangers, who led the league in steals, ran greater than thrice as typically because the Twins:
Stolen Base Makes an attempt (2022)
| Staff | Stolen Base Makes an attempt | MLB Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Texas Rangers | 169 | 1st |
| Miami Marlins | 151 | 2nd |
| Chicago Cubs | 148 | third |
| Colorado Rockies | 65 | twenty ninth |
| Minnesota Twins | 55 | thirtieth |
A part of the issue was the lineup Minnesota was working with. Of its prime 5 gamers by plate appearances, the quickest runner was Carlos Correa, who had a dash velocity within the forty fourth percentile and hasn’t been a stolen base risk since his age-21 season. Luis Arraez, Gio Urshela, Jose Miranda, and Gary Sánchez had been the one different Twins with greater than 450 PA, and none of these guys is profitable a footrace, to place it kindly.
Even the quickest gamers in Minnesota had been hesitant to run, nonetheless. Buxton was solely on tempo so as to add one other 4 or 5 steals had he remained wholesome; a participant along with his abilities may have simply stolen 25–30 luggage, at the least. Presumably, he was staying put out of an abundance of warning for his bodily security, but if that had been the one rationalization, it’s odd he was operating as typically as he did. He stole sufficient bases to place himself in hurt’s means, however he wasn’t operating sufficient to maximise his worth on the basepaths. Different Twins who stole lower than you’d count on included Gordon, Jorge Polanco, and Max Kepler. All three had above-average dash speeds and above-average OBPs, however they tried considerably fewer steals than in 2021. In different phrases, velocity wasn’t the one drawback. By all appearances, the Twins had been discouraging their gamers from taking additional bases.
It’s laborious to grasp why the Twins would take such an method. It’s not as in the event that they play in a hitter’s park, the type which may discourage small-ball ways, nor was there something about their offensive talent set that may make steals much less precious. Their group batting common ranked thirteenth within the sport, and their remoted energy ranked a number of spots decrease. What’s extra, they completed final within the American League in UBR (Final Base Operating), which implies they weren’t making the most of balls in play to maneuver up additional bases. It is smart {that a} group would keep away from stealing if it had different methods of shifting runners up, however that wasn’t the case in Minnesota; the Twins led the league in plate appearances with a runner on first (and solely first) however ranked Sixteenth in plate appearances with runners in scoring place.
Supervisor Rocco Baldelli understood his group was struggling on the bases, and he personally requested his predecessor, Paul Molitor, come to spring coaching to behave as a baserunning guru. However Baldelli didn’t appear notably taken with engaged on stolen bases. As Aaron Gleeman and Dan Hayes reported for The Athletic, “Swiping extra luggage isn’t essentially the Twins’ focus this season.” As an alternative, Minnesota was taken with “aggressive, good base operating when the ball is put in play.”
Subsequently, because the 2023 season started, the Twins hardly stole in any respect. Via their first 22 video games, they swiped only one bag in three makes an attempt, and a kind of so-called “makes an attempt” was actually a catcher pickoff as an alternative:
Yainer Diaz catches Matt Wallner getting too far off of 1st. pic.twitter.com/Xb1HRB13I1
— Caught Stealing (@MLB_CS) April 10, 2023
One way or the other, the Twins had been stealing lower than ever at a time when stolen bases had been skyrocketing across the league. To make issues worse, Minnesota’s baserunning drills within the offseason weren’t having the meant impact; the group’s -0.4 UBR wasn’t terrible, but it surely ranked within the backside third of the league. As soon as once more, the Twins had been struggling to maneuver runners previous first base, rating final in baseball in plate appearances with runners in scoring place, even when adjusting for on-base proportion.
After which they lastly acquired the inexperienced mild. Since April 24, the Twins have tried eight steals in 10 video games. Out of context, that quantity isn’t going to knock your socks off: It’s tied for Seventeenth-most within the sport, and 12 different groups have stolen between seven and 9 bases in that point. On the similar time, eight stolen base makes an attempt represents a outstanding turnaround for the Twins. In spite of everything, this group didn’t steal eight bases in a 10-game span at any level final season.
By most groups’ requirements, the Twins aren’t doing something uncommon right here. It’s not as if Miranda is abruptly racking up steals. The quicker guys on the group have been operating, they usually’ve been choosing the right catchers to run towards. Buxton, Kepler, Michael A. Taylor, and Willi Castro have mixed for seven of the eight makes an attempt, and all the catchers they’ve run towards have below-average pop instances: Jose Trevino, Salvador Perez, and Yasmani Grandal. In different phrases, the Twins aren’t rolling out a model new method to baserunning. Merely put, the group wants extra guys in scoring place, so it seems to be like Baldelli goes to be giving the inexperienced mild a little bit extra typically:
The Pirates are in a complete completely different world. They’ve already swiped extra luggage than the Twins did in all the 2022 season; 14 Pirates have stolen a base (insert joke about plundering right here), and 7 have stolen at the least three. However very similar to the Twins, the Pirates have ramped up their stolen base efforts because the remaining week of April. Twenty-two video games into the yr, Pittsburgh ranked fourth in stolen bases (22) and fifth in stolen base makes an attempt (27). Within the 10 video games since, the Bucs have stolen one other 22 luggage, doubling their season complete in lower than two weeks. From April 23 to Could 3, they stole at the least one base in 9 straight video games, with the streak solely ending Thursday afternoon towards Tampa Bay. Even with the brand new guidelines, that’s a powerful feat. No group has stolen greater than 20 bases in a nine-game span since 2016, and it’s solely been carried out a handful of instances within the final 20 years.
So what was fueling this stolen base spree? A few of it needed to do with the competitors the Pirates had been dealing with. They stole 12 luggage in three video games towards the Dodgers, who’ve struggled to hold runners on all year. On the flip facet, the one catcher Pittsburgh has confronted within the final ten video games with a superb pop time is Christian Bethancourt, who held the Pirates to 1 stolen base in two video games.
The Pirates had been additionally giving themselves extra alternatives to steal. Over their first 22 video games, they posted a .331 OBP (twelfth in baseball). Throughout their nine-game stolen base streak, that quantity rose to .361 (third). What’s extra, that enhance was pushed virtually completely by singles; their stroll price and slugging proportion remained constant, however their group batting common rose by 25 factors. They had been additionally hitting fewer dwelling runs, going from a homer each 31 plate appearances to 1 each 44. With extra runners on first and fewer dwelling runs to clear the bases, the Pirates had extra possibilities to steal, they usually took benefit. That helps clarify why their streak got here to an finish on Thursday; not solely had been they up towards a superb catcher, however in addition they had simply six males attain base all day. By on-base proportion, it was their worst recreation of the season.
It has definitely helped that Pittsburgh’s quickest runner has had extra possibilities to steal. Ji Hwan Bae posted a .288 OBP via April 22, however that quantity rose to .357 within the 10 video games since. Accordingly, he has stolen extra luggage within the final 10 video games than within the first 22. His stolen base numbers, nonetheless, have elevated on the similar price as the remainder of the group’s. In different phrases, his work has been spectacular (eight steals within the final ten video games), but it surely’s not skewing the numbers. Merely put, all the group has been extra aggressive, and it goes past footspeed and catchers and alternatives. Just like the Twins, the Pirates have had the inexperienced mild extra typically.
Certainly, there’s no different strategy to clarify Carlos Santana and his three stolen bases. The person has Sixteenth-percentile dash velocity and hasn’t tried greater than 5 steals in a season since 2017. That’s not the sort of man who steals third base with two outs on a whim:
Right here’s one other instance of Santana stealing a bag. There’s nothing tough happening; he takes his lead, will get an excellent soar, and slides in forward underneath the tag. A greater throw would certainly have gotten him, however his velocity (or lack thereof) isn’t the purpose. I don’t want any additional proof that the Pirates are getting extra aggressive on the basepaths than this proper right here:
Should you do want a little bit extra proof than a 37-year-old first baseman swiping a bag prefer it’s enterprise as standard, take into account this: The Pirates have been far more aggressive in stealing third base over the past 10 video games. Of their first 22 contests, 5 of their stolen base makes an attempt (18.5%) had been at third. Since then, they’ve tried one other eight steals of third base (30.8%); for context, the league-average price is 13.2%. We’re speaking small samples right here, however that is additional proof that the Pirates are altering up their method to benefit from the brand new stolen base surroundings. Stealing third is all about timing the pitcher and getting the proper soar, and that’s exactly what the brand new guidelines are facilitating.
The Twins and the Pirates have been two of probably the most nice surprises over the primary month of the season. Minnesota is now the hands-down favourite within the AL Central, and Pittsburgh has officially entered the NL postseason race. As these two groups battle to carry onto their playoff positions, they’ll be looking for aggressive benefits all yr lengthy. Maybe an aggressive method on the bases is strictly what they should put them excessive.
