The Righty-Heavy Rotations of the AL Central

With Opening Day on the horizon, three groups are planning to enter the season with completely right-handed rotations: the Guardians, the Twins, and the White Sox. As I’m positive I don’t should inform you, that’s not the one factor these golf equipment have in widespread; they’re additionally the three contenders for the AL Central crown. An all-righty rotation isn’t exceptional, however it’s unusual, and it’s significantly uncommon to see three inside the similar division. Right here’s how they every stack up:

Round this time final season, there have been likewise three groups planning to deploy all-righty rotations: the Guardians, the Twins, and the Mets. The Mets, nonetheless, had lefty in David Peterson at Triple-A, and it was solely a matter of time earlier than they wanted him. Certainly, he was referred to as up two days into the season and made his first begin every week later. As for the Guardians and Twins, in addition they had lefties ready within the wings. Konnor Pilkington was the primary man referred to as up when Cleveland wanted a sixth starter; Devin Smeltzer wasn’t the primary call-up for Minnesota, however he was quickly to comply with.

This 12 months, the White Sox have joined the all-righty ranks. In actual fact, they haven’t had a left-handed starter since releasing Dallas Keuchel final Might. In the meantime, the Guardians and Twins have extra right-handed depth than final season. Pilkington continues to be round for Cleveland, however he had a poor exhibiting this spring, and several other right-handed prospects are transferring their method up the depth chart. As for Minnesota, Smeltzer elected free company in October, and each new starter the workforce acquired this offseason has been a righty.

All in all, that is what the AL Central contenders are when it comes to rotation depth:

This desk consists of each pitcher (outdoors the highest 5) projected to get a begin in keeping with our Depth Charts. I’ve additionally included prime prospects who may moderately contribute in 2023 and another starters on the 40-man roster. This isn’t an exhaustive checklist of each man who may begin a sport — there’ll all the time be surprises — however it’s a superb abstract of the depth at every workforce’s disposal.

Solely Cleveland has a lot relating to left-handed depth. Minnesota’s lone southpaw starter on the 40-man is Brent Headrick, who’s 25 years previous and hasn’t pitched above Double-A, the place he had blended outcomes final season. He’s behind a number of names on the depth chart, so barring an sudden breakout, he’s not in line for an enormous league call-up. The White Sox have even fewer left-handed choices. Tanner Banks has MLB expertise, however completely as a reliever. He began simply two video games at Triple-A final season and made all 35 of his large league appearances out of the bullpen. Certainly, he final was a main beginning pitcher in 2019.

The Guardians usually tend to name up a lefty starter than their rivals, besides, it’s no positive factor. Proper-handers Xzavion Curry and Hunter Gaddis caught round in large league camp the longest, so one among them has the perfect likelihood to nab an early-season spot begin. Southpaw Logan Allen may earn a call-up midseason, however he’s not fairly prepared, and it’s attainable one other prime prospect like Daniel Espino or Tanner Bibee will surpass him on the depth chart within the subsequent couple of months. Thus, there’s a distinct chance the Twins and White Sox go your entire season with out utilizing a left-handed starter, and it’s not out of the query for the Guardians both.

How typically does that occur? It’s not terribly uncommon for a single workforce to avoid southpaw starters in any given 12 months; it’s occurred seven instances within the final ten full seasons and ten instances within the final twenty. However the one season within the earlier 20 years when a number of groups eschewed left-handed starters was 2020, when neither Philadelphia nor Cleveland began a southpaw. Listed here are these ten groups that began right-handers for all 162:

Nearly all of those golf equipment fall into one among two camps. A number of have been rebuilding and simply wanted innings, no matter who threw them; the 2002 Orioles and 2016 Braves match into that class. Many of the others had wonderful rotations — rotations so good there was no want to fret about handedness. The 2018 Guardians are an ideal instance. The one exception appears to be the 2012 Reds: their rotation wasn’t excellent however was supported by an excellent pitch framer behind the plate (Ryan Hanigan), a terrific protection total (63 DRS), and a dominant, lefty-heavy bullpen (2.65 ERA, 5.8 WAR).

The Guardians, Twins, and White Sox don’t fall into both of the primary two classes. They’re all contending for a division title; in concept, they need to win. However their beginning rotations all rank in the midst of the pack on our Depth Charts.

The Guardians, at the least, match the mildew of the 2012 Reds. Mike Zunino has a repute as a superb pitch framer, and their protection has ranked among the many finest in baseball for the previous a number of years. In addition they have a superb bullpen, that includes gifted southpaw Sam Hentges and intriguing left-handed prospect Tim Herrin. Furthermore, of Cleveland’s 5 main starters, solely Zach Plesac has poor profession splits towards left-handed batters. Aaron Civale truly has spectacular reverse platoon splits, because of his dependable cutter and a nasty curve. Most significantly, Shane Bieber is an ace no matter how his opponent swings the bat:

Minnesota’s rotation might need just a little extra bother protecting left-handed batters at bay. The Twins have a skillful backstop of their very own in Christian Vázquez, and so they have a robust protection with the likes of Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton. However their protection isn’t as robust as Cleveland’s on the appropriate facet of the infield, the place lefties are inclined to hit the ball. Andrés Giménez is a Gold Glove second baseman; Jorge Polanco has racked up -10 OAA in two full seasons at second base.

The Twins’ bullpen needs to be high quality, however it isn’t a energy outdoors of Jhoan Duran, and even he isn’t practically as dominant towards left-handed batters. Minnesota does have a few gifted lefties within the ‘pen, however every has his query marks; Caleb Thielbar is already 36 years previous, and Jovani Moran has but to show himself over a full season. As for the rotation’s platoon splits? It’s a blended bag. Solely Sonny Grey has good profession numbers towards lefties, though Tyler Mahle has improved his splits over the past two years. (Amusingly sufficient, he’s performed so by turning his splitter into his secondary pitch towards left-handers.) Kenta Maeda’s poor observe file towards opposite-handed hitters is very worrisome:

It’s one other blended bag in Chicago. Yasmani Grandal is a energy behind the dish, however the remainder of the protection is uninspiring. Elvis Andrus may very well be an asset at second, however he’ll be studying the ropes on the fly; he hasn’t performed the place professionally outdoors of a two-inning, Rookie-level stint in 2005. And whereas Chicago’s bullpen appears good, it received’t be at full energy till Liam Hendriks returns. Kendall Graveman, the de facto nearer in his place, hasn’t been nice towards left-handers, however the Sox have loads of lefty depth within the ‘pen. That features wonderful sinkerballer Aaron Bummer, veteran Jake Diekman, and final 12 months’s breakout reliever Banks. These bullpen arms will play a vital function, as a result of the beginning 5 have not had a lot luck towards lefties. Solely no. 5 starter Michael Kopech has reverse platoon splits, and Dylan Stop and Lance Lynn — the 2 most essential arms within the rotation — aren’t practically as dominant with out the platoon benefit:

To make issues worse for the White Sox, their offense thrived towards left-handed pitching final 12 months. Their 119 wRC+ towards southpaws was the fourth-highest in baseball; their 93 wRC+ towards righties was the eighth-worst. They weren’t fairly as highly effective towards lefties within the second half, when Tim Anderson and Luis Robert Jr. went on the IL, however these two are again to hit atop the lineup. Changing the righty AJ Pollock with the lefty Andrew Benintendi ought to assist to stability out the offense, however he’s the one left-handed mainstay within the batting order; Chicago’s lineup is constructed to face lefties. That’s going to be an issue within the 28 video games this workforce performs towards Cleveland and Minnesota:

The Guardians, in the meantime, have been horrible towards left-handed pitching final season, posting a 104 wRC+ towards righties and an 84 wRC+ towards southpaws. The addition of switch-hitting Josh Bell will assist to even out these splits, however Cleveland continues to be fortunate that its division rivals are so right-handed. Terry Francona can trot out a lineup that includes as many as seven lefties or switch-hitters when he desires to, and his left-handed choices will solely enhance as soon as prime prospect Bo Naylor is promoted:

The Twins have been high quality towards lefties final season (101 wRC+) however considerably higher towards righties (109 wRC+). The now departed Luis Arraez and Gio Urshela contributed to these splits, however Minnesota continues to be set as much as beat right-handers. The addition of Joey Gallo, the wholesome returns of Max Kepler and Alex Kirilloff, and the breakout of Trevor Larnach give this lineup 4 lefties who can pack a punch:

The AL Central race goes to be shut this season. Fewer than three wins separate the White Sox, Twins, and Guardians in our projected standings. Thus, the division winner shall be determined largely by the 42 video games these three golf equipment play towards each other. Which means the White Sox may very well be in actual bother if their lineup can’t carry out towards the righty-heavy rotations of their rivals. The Guardians, in the meantime, have a leg up with a lefty-heavy lineup to grind away at opposing beginning pitchers.

Handedness is simply a small a part of the equation, however in such a decent race, each benefit (or drawback) counts. The righty-heavy rotations of the AL Central are an amusing quirk, however when all is claimed and performed, they might additionally play a significant function in deciding the division.