The Reds Add Jeimer Candelario, But Who Will They Vote Off the Island?

The primary few days of the Winter Conferences didn’t ship a lot motion; at breakfast on Wednesday, Erick Fedde versus Wade Miley as the most important signing of the conferences was a well-liked debate. However issues picked up because the gathering floor to an in depth. First, the Yankees traded for Juan Soto. Subsequent, Eduardo Rodriguez agreed to phrases with Arizona. Lastly, Jeimer Candelario capped the conferences off when he signed with the Reds for 3 years and $45 million and a crew choice for an additional yr, as MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand first reported.

A part of the attract of free company, as a fan expertise, is that you just by no means know the place any given participant would possibly land, or who your crew would possibly decide up. Certain, all of us have opinions on the place the highest guys will signal, however till they put pen to paper, or a minimum of till Jeff Passan will get a textual content about their chosen vacation spot, nothing is about in stone. However if you happen to’d requested me to foretell signings that wouldn’t occur this winter, I might have made a lazy prediction: the Reds would keep away from hitters generally and infielders specifically.

That doesn’t have something to do with Candelario, to be clear. I believe he’ll be one of many discount signings of the offseason, a plus bat with playable protection at third base on an reasonably priced contract. A 3-year deal nets the again half of his prime with out an excessive amount of messiness on the finish of the contract, and he’s performed at a 3–4 WAR clip in three out of the previous 4 years. He’s been the 68th-best hitter in baseball by our depend over these 4 years, simply forward of Luis Arraez and Ketel Marte in an analogous variety of plate appearances, if you happen to’re making an attempt to calibrate that in your head.

If you’re not dwelling on the very prime of the market, there’ll at all times be query marks. Candelario’s is his 2022 season, when his offense cratered so badly that the Tigers — the Tigers! — minimize him unfastened reasonably than going to arbitration. He signed a prove-it cope with the Nationals, put collectively a sterling first half, and completed the season on the Cubs. His 117 wRC+ wasn’t a profession excessive — he did higher in each 2020 and ’21 — however that’s form of the purpose. He regarded like this for some time, fell utterly aside, after which bounced again to his beforehand established degree of manufacturing. ZiPS sees him as an above-average common, an appropriate defender at a semi-premium place who will get on base quite a bit and sock 20 dingers a yr within the confining confines of Nice American Ballpark:

None of that’s the bizarre a part of the signing. That’s all stuff I may have written in October, and kind of did; between myself and Davy Andrews, our Top 50 Free Agent list had all that info. That additionally led to my prediction of a three-year, $45 million contract, and the gang wasn’t far off both, with FanGraphs’ intrepid readers anticipating a three-year pact value round $36 million. In different phrases, the issues that make Candelario fascinating to main league groups are fairly easy.

Much less easy: why the Reds have been probably the most crew. If I needed to clarify their offseason place briefly, I might have centered on three factors: They’re money constrained, they want pitching depth, and so they have a gaudy assortment of younger infield expertise. Listed here are the highest Reds hitters, excluding Candelario, by 2024 Steamer projection:

Six of the seven hitters who the Reds hope will anchor their subsequent aggressive core are nominally infielders; solely Friedl doesn’t match. “The place will the Reds play everybody” was already a troublesome query to reply in 2023. At midseason, McLain slid from shortstop to second when India went down with damage. That led to De La Cruz establishing himself because the starter at quick, which left McLain at second and gave India nowhere to play, although the issue was quickly averted when McLain missed the top of the season with damage. Steer can play lots of locations, however first base stopped being certainly one of them when Encarnacion-Strand got here up. This isn’t a nasty downside to have — oh no, too lots of our prospects panned out! — but it surely’s nonetheless an issue that wants fixing.

Including Candelario to that blend solely makes the scenario trickier. His defensive capabilities are easy: he ought to play third base. He’s a roughly common defender there, maybe a tick under if you happen to consider DRS over OAA, however definitely inside a playable vary. He can play first base as effectively, however Encarnacion-Strand is a greater match there, and Candelario’s offense is way additional above the baseline degree at third than at first.

A quick apart: it is a bizarre blind spot in positional changes, and a motive that I believe some first basemen get overly penalized by our WAR framework. The changes we use — and the changes that everybody makes use of, actually — suggest that Candelario would should be 15 runs above common at first base to offer equal defensive worth to being a scratch third base defender. That’s simply not attainable; the vary of first base defensive outcomes isn’t that large. If he repeated the identical offensive season at every place over the following two years, the yr the place he performed third base could be value roughly one further win relative to the yr the place he performed first.

Which may do job of explaining his worth to the Reds, as a result of it’s a lot simpler to search out good hitters at first than at third. Likewise, think about a shortstop who’s a league-average hitter and a plus defender. If he have been to transition to first, WAR would appropriately assess that he’s far much less priceless to the crew at his new place. However the participant is similar in each instances; positional changes don’t imply they all of a sudden bought worse. They’re simply taking part in under their potential worth, as measured by WAR, to assist the crew out. Name it the Ian Desmond Rule: take an up-the-middle defender and transfer them to first base, and their measured defensive worth will crater.

Anyway, again to Candelario! Dan ran him by way of ZiPS as a DH as an alternative of third baseman, only for funsies. The third base projection, if you happen to’ll bear in mind from up above, was fairly strong; ZiPS would pay $56 million over three years for that form of offense. Right here he’s as a DH:

Identical hitter, completely different context, poof goes the WAR. If the Reds need to get probably the most out of him, then, he’ll have to play third. The best alignment for his or her infield goes Candelario/De La Cruz/McLain/Encarnacion-Strand transferring throughout the infield from left to proper, however that doesn’t depart wherever for Marte, whose pure place can be third base. Okay, positive, perhaps the Reds are comfortable to torch all that defensive worth and transfer Candelario over to first, and even DH. However we’re not carried out! India is now crowded out; he’s worse than McLain on either side of the ball, can’t hit sufficient to unseat Encarnacion-Strand at first or DH, and doesn’t present defensive utility throughout the infield like Marte. Steer, in the meantime, will seemingly play the outfield full time now. I believe he’ll hit sufficient, and develop sufficient fielding prowess when given a full-time function, to be left fielder, however that’s nonetheless an open query.

In the event you’re racking your mind making an attempt to provide you with some configuration that solves all these issues, you’ll be able to cease. There isn’t one. You’ll be able to’t play six infielders at 4 spots, 5 if you happen to depend DH. None of them are part-time gamers or straightforward platoon guys; they’re all both righties or switch-hitters. The entire options contain subtraction in a technique or one other; somebody has to get harm, or somebody has to get traded. Even then, there are going to be some Ian Desmond Rule points; somebody who’s defensively overqualified for DH goes to finish up there, as a result of there are simply too many shortstops and third basemen on the roster.

However who to commerce? Now that’s a sticky query. I believe that De La Cruz and McLain are staying put for certain; they’re the highest two skills, and the one two that really feel like surefire core gamers to me. I don’t assume Encarnacion-Strand is more likely to get traded, both, although I’m much less certain there. It’s simply laborious to think about getting a lot worth for a primary baseman (he can play just a little third now, however first is his long-term spot) together with his strikeout points and lack of observe file. If I have been the Reds, I’d maintain onto him and wager that he’ll be higher than what different groups would surrender for him.

That leaves India and Marte, however there are points with buying and selling both of these guys, too. India’s worth is at a low ebb; he hasn’t but replicated his hot-hitting rookie season, with two straight years of league-average offense. He’s additionally a below-average defender; I believe lots of groups would hesitate to plug him in at second except they really had no different choices there. He’s a basic baseball archetype — a man who wants common taking part in time if he needs to recapture the worth he confirmed a number of years in the past — however the Reds have nowhere to play him, and so they nearly definitely worth him as nearer to his greatest self than the groups making an attempt to commerce for him will.

Commerce Marte? I suppose they might, however his scenario is much more complicated. He was the important thing participant that the Reds bought after they traded Luis Castillo, and as such, he’s an emblem of their rebuild. The difficult half right here is that he regarded diminished in 2022, then completed with a poor displaying in Fall League, then turned in a largely lackluster 2023 within the minors. He hit fairly effectively in a short main league displaying however graded out poorly defensively at third, and there have been already questions on his long-term defensive dwelling. He has enormous upside, however there are such a lot of unknowns that, like India, I believe groups buying and selling for him would solely have an interest in the event that they have been getting him at a beautiful price.

That is the basic downside of buying and selling from surplus: you need to commerce the fellows who’re underperforming so that you could hold those who’re already taking part in effectively, however the groups you must commerce with get to see that underperformance, too. Any commerce involving India goes to really feel underwhelming within the context of his 2021 Rookie of the 12 months season. Any commerce involving Marte goes to really feel underwhelming within the context of the Castillo commerce.

Nonetheless, the Reds have to make a commerce. There’s not even a lot concern about subsequent accidents resulting in a shortfall; even when they transfer certainly one of these guys, one other infielder might be taking part in DH, and Steer can at all times transfer again to the infield if essential. Heck, most of the Reds’ greatest hitting prospects behind the present crop of fellows are infielders, too, although to be truthful most of them are nonetheless fairly removed from the majors. It’s only a unusual scenario. They already had too many infielders, after which they made their greatest signing of the offseason to extend the logjam.

The explanation for this appears apparent: they assume Candelario is nice. I are likely to agree with them and assume he’ll do very well there. He’s match for the park, and once more, I already thought he’d be probably the greatest bargains obtainable in free company. In the event you’re going to run a finances round $90 million, just like the Reds are, bargains are actually vital.

The happiest final result of all of this is able to be that the Reds have already got a commerce lined up. It doesn’t matter precisely what they get in return, so long as it’s gamers who can assist them within the close to future; they might use extra outfielders, extra starters, and extra relievers. They’re relying on a ton of innings from younger and recently-injured pitchers, and their present right-field platoon of Stuart Fairchild and Will Benson doesn’t encourage a ton of confidence.

So let’s give the Reds the advantage of the doubt, a minimum of for now. There weren’t any thrilling outfielders within the finances vary the place they have been procuring except they gained the Jung-ho Lee sweepstakes, and I’m unsure in the event that they have been even collaborating. The pitchers I believe they’d be most thinking about will command greater offers than Candelario. From a cash and expertise standpoint, he actually does appear to be an incredible match.

However from a crew building perspective: he’s a horrible match. What do you get the crew that has too many infielders? An infielder, naturally. If the Reds can’t commerce their approach out of this downside, that is going to be a really irritating roster in 2024. So for now, they get an incomplete grade, and in the event that they haven’t moved certainly one of their infielders by subsequent yr, that grade will change to an F. It’s really one of the baffling signings from a team-needs perspective in my profession in baseball.