Phillies slugger Nick Castellanos has seen his title pop up on the rumor mill this week, with Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reporting that the staff is “open” to shifting him in a possible commerce. There’s no indication any deal is shut right now.
Frankly, it’s solely pure that the Phillies could be open to shifting Castellanos. He’s coming into the third season of a five-year, $100M contract and has not performed as much as expectations thus far. Castellanos’ 2023 marketing campaign (.272/.311/.476, 29 homers) was much better than his 2022 season (.263/.305/.389, 13 house runs), nevertheless it nonetheless wasn’t anyplace near the standout manufacturing he turned in with the Reds throughout his remaining season in Cincinnati (.309/.362/.576, 34 homers).
Castellanos has by no means graded as even a mean defender within the outfield, and his two seasons in Philadelphia haven’t modified that. He’s performed simply over 2,300 innings in proper subject with the Phils and been dinged for -17 Defensive Runs Saved. Final Zone Ranking pegs him at -20.2, and Statcast has him at 19 outs beneath common. The massive offensive output that Castellanos produced in 2018, 2019 and 2021 greater than offset his shaky glovework, however he was beneath common on the plate with the Phils in 2022 and solely about 9 % higher than common on the plate in 2023 (by measure of wRC+, which weights for house park and league run-scoring surroundings).
As with all free-agent signing, the Phillies have been certainly most within the first few years of the long-term deal to which they inked Castellanos. He’s performed out his age-30 and age-31 seasons in pink pinstripes and is now heading into his age-32 marketing campaign. As he strikes into his mid-30s, it stands to motive that Castellanos’ protection will solely slip additional. His common dash velocity (as measured by Statcast) dipped from 27.7 toes per second in 2022 to 27.2 in 2023. That checks into the forty sixth percentile of MLB gamers, and his arm power (83.5 mph common on his throws) tied for 142nd out of 152 qualified outfielders.
There are additionally some pink flags in his offensive profile; Castellanos has seen his exit velocity and barrel charges drop in Philadelphia, whereas this previous season’s 27.6% strikeout price was the worst of his profession in a full 162-game season. He’s by no means walked at an particularly excessive clip, however his persistence can be on the decline. Castellanos drew a free cross in 7.3% of his plate appearances throughout his remaining two seasons with the Reds. That’s dropped to five.3% in two seasons with the Phillies. In the meantime, he’s chasing pitches off the plate greater than ever earlier than (43.1% with the Phils; 37.1% in his profession prior). Because of this, his contact price has plummeted. This previous season’s 66.6% contact price is almost 5 proportion factors south of his profession 71.5% mark.
There’s just about no method the Phillies would have the ability to transfer the whole thing of Castellanos’ contract and obtain one thing of worth in return. Even simply getting somebody to tackle all the contract in a straight wage dump won’t be possible.
That stated, it’s a woeful crop of free-agent bats, and Castellanos nonetheless popped 29 homers with an above-average batting line. A membership with extra taking part in time at designated hitter might have some curiosity in swapping out an underwater contract of its personal that higher matches the Phillies roster. The Phils might additionally pay down a few of Castellanos’ contract, however they’d seemingly want to incorporate a considerable amount of money in an effort to make it a palatable deal for a commerce companion — not to mention to amass significant gamers in return.
The free-agent market, for example, options right-handed bats of typically related ability set within the type of Teoscar Hernandez, Jorge Soler, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Hunter Renfroe. Hernandez is a 12 months youthful than Castellanos. Gurriel is 2 years youthful. Taking up Castellanos at $60M for his age-32 by age-34 seasons when there are youthful and/or inexpensive comparables on the free-agent market isn’t prone to maintain widespread enchantment all through the league. Soler, particularly, is coming off a stronger season on the plate however won’t even value as a lot because the remaining sum on Castellanos’ contract.
Given the general lack of high quality bats in the marketplace, it’s potential there’ll be some curiosity in buying Castellanos at a lower cost than what’s left on his five-year deal. That the Phillies are “open” to buying and selling him ought to come as no shock. Truly discovering a strategy to facilitate a deal could be one other story.
