The Padres Have a Complicated Future

Padres followers in 2023 don’t have a ton to be enthusiastic about. The Friars have been in win-now mode for the final 4 seasons and are staring down their second dropping marketing campaign throughout that span. One of many two profitable seasons was form of ruined — for everybody on this planet — by a raging pandemic, leaving followers with just one yr that was each regular and an pleasant expertise since 2010. Not like plenty of groups with an analogous efficiency document, it’s not for lack of funding within the staff. Just some months after the large commerce that introduced Juan Soto to city, the staff signed Xander Bogaerts to a $280 million contract and saved Manny Machado from opting out with a fair spicier $350 million pact. The Padres additionally agreed on a $100 million contract for Joe Musgrove and locked up Yu Darvish for $108 million. That’s greater than $800 million, so we’re not speaking concerning the case of, say, the White Sox having points partly as a result of they couldn’t be bothered to fill large holes within the lineup as a result of that might have required cash.

As gloomy because the season feels proper now, there are nonetheless reliable causes to assume the Padres are a superb baseball staff. Their 68–54 Pythagorean document is 10 wins above their precise document, and data derived from run differential are extra predictive than win-loss document. The projections all nonetheless agree there’s lots to love and equally have a superb document, comparatively talking, of predicting the longer term. And this holds true even when speaking about groups with the most important disagreement between the projections and the document. Trying on the 25 groups that FanGraphs like higher than their seasonal profitable proportion probably the most, coin flips missed their rest-of-season profitable percentages by a mean of 86 factors, season to-date data by 81 factors, and FanGraphs data by 65 factors. These 25 groups had performed .396 ball via August 14 of their seasons; FanGraphs projected a .476 RoS profitable proportion, and the precise RoS profitable proportion for these groups was .458. We weren’t imagining issues.

However the basic drawback the Padres face is that it’s merely far too late to be the staff they hoped they had been. Our projections still believe they’re a .572 staff, however that’s solely adequate for a 19% probability of constructing the postseason with a divisional likelihood that rounds to zero; the ZiPS projections have it at 15%. Whereas these are nonetheless fairly good odds, particularly in comparison with how the season has felt, it’s nonetheless much more probably than not that this yr finally ends up being a darkish companion to the 2021 season that additionally led to stunningly bleak vogue.

And right here’s the issue: the Padres challenge to be worse sooner or later than they’re now. You might say that about most groups, however the Padres are additionally a staff that has a large quantity of payroll already tied up in a declining roster, an unsigned Soto approaching free company, and possibly not plenty of room left to develop in a payroll sense. Complicating issues even additional is the monetary collapse of Bally Sports activities, because the staff has not but found out methods to substitute that income. Forbes estimated the Padres misplaced $53 million in 2022, and issues are prone to worsen from there. Peter (Seidler) really noticed a wolf.

Working some up-to-date projections for gamers signed long-term demonstrates the enormity of the staff’s problem. I’m going to start out with the Padres’ core of six gamers who’ve assured contracts with annual salaries of at $10 million or extra via at the least the 2026 season. No matter occurs elsewhere on the staff, these six are nearly actually going to be a part of the muse.

It’s possible you’ll cringe wanting on the finish of Machado’s contract, however ZiPS already expected that before the season. Machado put collectively a powerful sufficient July — although he’s slumped since then and is nursing a sore hamstring — and skilled a transparent return to defensive kind to trigger his 2024-and-on projections to tick up barely. Whereas ZiPS didn’t just like the deal, it doesn’t prefer it any lower than it did in February.

Bogaerts was mired in a deep stoop in Might and June, aided by a sore wrist, however has hit a extra Xanderian .290/.351/.413 for the reason that begin of July, in-line with preseason expectations. As with Machado’s current deal, the Padres go into this contract figuring out that they’re paying for Bogaerts to say no.

This can be a little bit of an ungainly projection as a result of it highlights an assumption in staff development that turned out to not be true. Sometimes, an honest defensive second baseman who can credibly faux enjoying shortstop will normally fare effectively at first base, however that simply has not occurred, at the least thus far, with Jake Cronenworth. With Ha-Seong Kim 김하성 firmly entrenched as a starter, the Padres have a participant with worth however not a logical place to play him in an effort to get that worth. The distinction is excessive sufficient that ZiPS thinks that Cronenworth is now greater than a win per season much less beneficial at first than second base.

Add in the truth that Cronenworth is having a down yr (and a reasonably odd one by way of Statcast knowledge), and there’s only a lot much less purpose to love his future than there was earlier than.

The place the positional gods punished the Padres with Cronenworth, they had been far kinder right here. Tatis’ bat isn’t fairly the place it was, however he’s really turned out to be an excellent defensive outfielder, at the least thus far. Given his age, he’s the one participant who tasks to complete out his contract as a plus contributor to the staff.

ZiPS was all the time pretty pessimistic concerning the Darvish extension, and with out him reversing the continued gradual decline in his peripherals, it hasn’t modified path for the reason that begin of the season. Whereas I all the time say “hitters age, pitchers break,” Darvish is at an age the place cliffs do, in truth, beckon. ZiPS didn’t even need to challenge the ultimate two seasons of his extension; I’ll be variety and never drive it to, so we’ll name these zero-WAR seasons, which is sunnier than what ZiPS would say if I made it.

The efficiency projections of Musgrove have stayed about the identical — hardly shocking contemplating that when he was wholesome, he was having an analogous season to final yr. However his return this season stays up within the air, and new accidents create new threat for a pitcher, so his projected innings totals have dropped significantly.

OK, let’s throw everyone into one desk, full with their salaries.

If the projections maintain true, these six will make up lower than a 3rd of the WAR wanted to be a 90-win staff as quickly as 2026, after they mix for $120 million in wage. Until the staff continues to spend increasingly more cash, it’s going to get more durable and more durable to make use of {dollars} to patch holes, which implies that the farm system has to get again to producing in a short time. The Padres aren’t probably to have the ability to win on the backs of those six gamers for very lengthy, which implies that they probably must give you an entire new core of expertise round these gamers.

The danger right here is considered one of dynastic failure. I’m not calling the Padres a dynasty by way of baseball success, however extra how the time period has been used traditionally. A number of warlords in historical past managed to get a throne, however to ascertain long-term rule, they needed to survive the transition to the subsequent rulers. The Astros are an instance of a staff that has averted dynastic failure; solely a handful of the gamers on the staff that gained the World Collection in 2017 had been nonetheless on the roster when Houston gained the World Collection in 2022. Solely Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman stay among the many Astros’ offensive contributors immediately, and the one pitcher nonetheless in Houston, Lance McCullers Jr., gained’t pitch once more till 2024 [and Verlander who I forgot about for some very odd reason -DS]. They mainly got here up with almost a wholly new staff in 5 years.

Baseball historical past is riddled with profitable groups that had been unable to transition to the subsequent period with no important interregnum, such because the Utley-Howard Phillies and the Tigers throughout the peak Miguel Cabrera years. However these Phillies gained a World Collection, and whereas the Tigers didn’t, they’d extra playoff success than these Padres groups have had. To realize that success, the Padres are going to must be extraordinarily artistic over the subsequent 5 years, lest they find yourself as one of many nice “what ifs” in baseball historical past. Spending cash and having a couple of large stars gained’t be sufficient.