The Outlook Isn’t So Good for Yuli Gurriel

Yuli Gurriel has performed skilled baseball around the globe, suiting up in Cuba and Japan earlier than making his solution to MLB. But since transferring stateside, Gurriel has worn only one uniform, and it nonetheless appears unusual to think about him sporting any colours aside from blue, orange, and white. In seven years with the Houston Astros, he received a Gold Glove, 4 American League pennants, and two World Collection championships. Sometime, he’ll earn a plaque within the Astros Corridor of Fame. In 2023, nonetheless, he’s hoping to lengthen his big-league profession with a brand new ball membership.

Astros GM Dana Brown has professed a tad little bit of curiosity in re-signing Gurriel, though that supposed curiosity could have been a gesture of respect reasonably than a real expression of want. With José Abreu at first base and Michael Brantley because the DH, there isn’t room for Gurriel in Houston’s beginning lineup. He may take a spot on the bench, displacing David Hensley, however Gurriel would seemingly want extra assured enjoying time and the Astros would possibly want to see what Hensley has to supply.

Per the Miami Herald, the Marlins made an offer to Gurriel earlier this winter, however the veteran was hesitant to simply accept. The Fish ultimately nixed the deal, though the Herald’s report suggests they may nonetheless invite Gurriel to camp as a non-roster invitee. Maybe he ought to have taken the assured money when it was nonetheless on the desk. The Twins, one other membership linked to the primary baseman this offseason, just lately got here to phrases with Donovan Solano. Presumably, Solano took the roster spot and the wage which may have in any other case gone to Gurriel.

Spring coaching is now properly underway, and Gurriel’s choices are dwindling. Most groups with room for a veteran first base bat have already discovered their man: the Reds nabbed Wil Myers, the Cubs picked Eric Hosmer, and the Athletics took an opportunity on Jesús Aguilar. At this level, it’s unlikely Gurriel will discover a crew keen to supply him common at-bats, and he could should accept a minor league deal. It’s a disappointing end result for a participant only one yr faraway from profitable the AL batting title and placing up a career-best 132 wRC+. So how did Gurriel get thus far?

The 2022 season was a tricky one for Gurriel. In 584 PA, he was value -0.9 WAR, the bottom determine amongst certified hitters. As soon as heralded as a five-tool player, Gurriel was a shell of his former self. His bat was mediocre, his energy was missing, his baserunning was poor, and his protection was awful – in different phrases, his toolbox was empty. In 2021, Gurriel gave followers hope that he may buck the getting older curve. Final yr, nonetheless, his 38 years caught as much as him.

Gurriel’s Baseball Savant web page offers preliminary rationalization of what went improper. His barrel price dropped, his hard-hit price dropped, and – you guessed it – his common exit velocity dropped too. He wasn’t hitting the ball as arduous as he used to, so he wasn’t getting as many hits. But the issue was extra localized than that. On groundballs and line drives, his common EV and HardHit% have been each near his profession averages. However on fly balls, his high quality of contact took a significant hit:

With that in thoughts, it’s no shock Gurriel’s manufacturing on fly balls suffered in 2022:

In case you’re questioning, that’s not a typo. Gurriel actually did have a 20 wRC+ on fly balls final season. For comparability, the league common was 131. The Astros first baseman hit 194 fly balls and solely managed a success on 26 of them. Solely 21 went for additional bases. On groundballs and line drives, Gurriel was completely advantageous. His efficiency on grounders was down relative to his profession numbers however was nonetheless comfortably above common. His efficiency on liners was truly his greatest in years. On prime of that, he outperformed the common hitter on balls not in play too, because of his minuscule strikeout price. In different phrases, he was higher than common when it got here to a few of 4 potential outcomes – groundballs, line drives, and balls not in play – however he carried out so dreadfully on fly balls that it dragged his numbers all the way down to the basement.

This isn’t fully new. Fly balls have at all times been Gurriel’s weak spot. These are his profession numbers in comparison with the AL common since he entered the league:

Gurriel has by no means been a significant residence run menace, however he’s at all times had simply sufficient pop that his different expertise have been adequate to compensate. In 2022, he was nonetheless good on the issues he did properly, however he was worse than ever at what he already did poorly. Now not may his different expertise choose up the slack.

To make issues worse, Gurriel’s issues on the plate have been exacerbated by unhealthy plate self-discipline. The person is a bat-to-ball machine; he not often strikes out and nearly by no means whiffs. Nonetheless, that doesn’t imply he has eye on the plate. He swings greater than the common hitter at pitches outdoors the zone and fewer than the common hitter at pitches contained in the zone. The outcome has at all times been a excessive contact price however an equally low stroll price.

Then, in 2021, Gurriel made a notable effort to enhance his plate self-discipline with out sacrificing contact. He swung much less usually, significantly at pitches outdoors the strike zone. He posted a career-high contact price and a career-low swinging strike price. His first-pitch strike proportion was higher than common for the very first time. Accordingly, he walked greater than twice as usually as he did within the first 5 years of his profession. He led the AL with a 0.87 walk-to-strikeout ratio, and his .383 OBP was second solely to Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s. It’s no marvel he posted such wonderful offensive numbers, together with the best wRC+ of his profession.

All that progress went out the window in 2022. Gurriel’s swing and o-swing charges jumped again as much as the place they as soon as have been. His stroll price fell in response. Furthermore, since Gurriel not often whiffs, he ended up making a ton of contact on pitches outdoors the strike zone. In different phrases, he was making extra contact on much less hittable pitches. Pitches within the strike zone that have been put in play final season had a .379 wOBA. Pitches from outdoors the strike zone that have been put in play had a .292 wOBA. It is sensible – when a batter hits unhealthy pitches, he’s extra more likely to make unhealthy contact. That’s precisely what occurred to Gurriel, who had a .317 wOBA on balls put in play from contained in the zone and a .250 wOBA on balls put in play from outdoors the strike zone. Due to this fact, not solely did Gurriel’s stroll price plummet, however his high quality of contact worsened because of his poor method on the plate.

To sum all of it up, Gurriel’s largest weak spot – his lack of energy – grew to become a good greater drawback final season. In the meantime, the newfound plate self-discipline that briefly helped him defy the getting older curve fully disappeared. He nonetheless possesses elite contact expertise, however these expertise are far much less beneficial when he’s swinging at worse pitches and hitting with out thump.

It’s straightforward to level to Gurriel’s 2021 season and determine the 38-year-old as a chief bounce-back candidate. Sadly, his efficiency in 2022 doesn’t go away a lot room for optimism. Gurriel has had a superb large league profession, and one that would have been all of the extra spectacular had he made his solution to the majors sooner. But as he enters his age-39 season, there’s a purpose groups have been hesitant to supply him a assured position. Thus, if Gurriel needs to get again on the sphere, a minor league contract could be his greatest guess. If the Marlins are nonetheless calling, he’d be clever to select up the telephone.