The Less He Swings, the More Josh Bell Dings

With a large first-pitch dwelling run off Aaron Nola on Wednesday afternoon, Josh Bell broke an 0-for-14 droop. He went 3-for-4 in Game 2 of the NLCS, including an RBI single within the fourth and one other base hit within the seventh to associate with his second-inning dwelling run. It was a significant enchancment over his efficiency within the first recreation of the sequence, when he went hitless in 4 at-bats and struck out swinging with two runners on to finish the ballgame.

When Bell is scorching, he could be a terrific offensive performer, and a lineup constructed round him, Juan Soto and Manny Machado has the potential to be probably the most highly effective in baseball. That’s precisely what A.J. Preller was relying on when he pulled off the biggest summer blockbuster in recent memory. When Bell goes chilly, nevertheless, he’s useless weight in the midst of the lineup.

Simply check out his wRC+ by month:

Extra of his success got here with the Nationals, however Bell did have a few robust stretches in San Diego. From August 20 to September 10, he hit for a 152 wRC+, and did so once more from October 1 by means of the tip of the season. The Padres went 14–9 throughout these two stretches, and Bell led the squad with 0.84 Win Chance Added. In the remainder of their video games post-deadline, the group went 17–18, and Bell’s -1.55 WPA ranked useless final. When their DH was hitting, the Friars had a extra full offense, and when he wasn’t, he dragged the group down with him. That pattern has continued into the postseason; in Padres wins, he’s batting .294/.294/.647 with three runs and 4 RBI (17 PA), and in losses, he’s hitting .100/.182/.100 with no runs or runs batted in (11 PA).

Bell, it needs to be mentioned, shouldn’t be the one slugger to undergo a droop after a midseason transfer to Petco Park. Soto hit a rough patch from mid-August to mid-September and ended up hitting simply .236 with six dwelling runs as a Padre. But he remained a high-level offensive performer due to his glorious plate self-discipline: his 19.3% stroll fee post-trade deadline led the Nationwide League by a large margin and ranked second in baseball behind solely Aaron Judge. Thus, regardless of his uncharacteristically low batting common and slugging proportion, his wRC+ after the commerce was a wholesome 130.

Bell, then again, was all-or-nothing on the plate this previous season. When he was scorching, he hit for common, he hit for energy, and he drew loads of walks. When he was chilly, all of it disappeared. For instance this, I broke his common season down into alternating cold and warm streaks. It’s not a superbly scientific strategy — I checked out his 15-game rolling wOBA and took be aware of when the road began going up or down — but it surely’s efficient for this objective, exhibiting the acute highs and lows of his season:

One factor that stands out instantly is Bell’s BABIP, which was effectively over .300 throughout all his scorching streaks and near the Mendoza line (or worse) throughout each chilly spell. A excessive or low BABIP, as FanGraphs readers effectively know, is commonly the driving issue behind a terrific hitting streak or an sudden droop. However that’s not the case for Bell. Think about that each time he went into a chilly streak, his stroll fee dropped. Furthermore, he didn’t hit a single dwelling run throughout any of the slumps I recognized. For practically any massive league hitter, you can discover durations of excessive and low BABIPs in the event you regarded arduous sufficient; you can absolutely discover homerless streaks too. What is exclusive right here is that these fluctuations in BABIP, stroll fee, and residential run fee are all carefully correlated with each other. Since neither homers nor walks are included in BABIP, it’s clear his streakiness was about extra than simply good or dangerous luck on balls in play.

As a substitute, the issue appeared to come back from Bell’s strategy on the plate. It is smart: if it appears like a hitter can’t do something proper, the problem most likely begins on the supply. Certainly, there was a powerful detrimental correlation between Bell’s O-Swing% this season and his offensive manufacturing. The stable blue line on this graph exhibits Bell’s 15-game rolling wOBA all year long, and the stable purple line exhibits his 15-game rolling swing fee on pitches exterior the strike zone:

What’s extra, Bell wasn’t simply swinging at extra pitches exterior the zone throughout his slumps; he was swinging at extra pitches generally. This second graph exhibits his 15-game rolling wOBA and his 15-game rolling swing fee this season. Bell, it appears, was a greater hitter when he was swinging at fewer pitches:

In 2021, Devan Fink wrote about O-Swing% and Z-Swing% for FanGraphs, concluding that “avoiding swings exterior of the strike zone seems to be way more essential than at all times swinging when within the zone.” In different phrases, the potential advantages of swinging at extra strikes don’t outweigh the drawbacks of chasing at too many pitches exterior the zone. Moreover, as he explains, “If the most effective hitters in baseball do essentially the most harm when swinging, they higher swing at pitches not solely within the strike zone, but in addition in their very own private wheelhouse.” The purpose right here is that good plate self-discipline is about extra than simply avoiding balls and swinging at strikes; it’s about figuring out the nice strikes, too.

This will get proper to the core of Bell’s issues in 2022. When he was swinging too typically, he was hurting himself in two methods:

1. By swinging at too many pitches exterior the strike zone
2. By swinging on the mistaken form of strikes for him to hit

The detriments of chasing an excessive amount of are somewhat easy, so let’s spend a minute taking a look at drawback no. 2. Check out the place Bell noticed most of his pitches in 2022, first from the left-hand aspect (the place he took the vast majority of his at-bats) after which from the suitable:

Now, check out the place within the zone he noticed essentially the most success:

There’s some overlap there, particularly over the center of the plate, however the distinction is obvious. Bell does his finest work on pitches excessive and away, however he’s extra prone to see pitches within the decrease two-thirds of the zone. Subsequently, he wants to attend patiently for the suitable pitches to swing at if he’s going to be a really harmful hitter. Which means swinging much less typically and letting some pitches go, even when these pitches are strikes. In any other case, he’s going to waste a better proportion of his swings on worse pitches.

Bell himself has acknowledged as a lot. He is aware of excessive pitches are his bread and butter. “If the pitch is elevated,” he told Jessica Camerato of MLB.com back in May, “then I’ll do harm with it.” And when pitches aren’t elevated, he’s extra prone to hit floor balls. He understands that’s one thing he must keep away from, particularly since he misplaced so many potential hits into the shift this season. As he defined, he tries to keep away from driving balls into the bottom by hitting “low, arduous line drives each at-bat.” It’s a great objective to have, and when he hits these line drives, it really works wonders for him. It’s no coincidence his line drive fee went up throughout every of his scorching streaks this season:

Not solely does Bell prosper when he hits pitches excessive within the zone, however he additionally thrives when he hits the ball on a line (as most hitters do). Striving to crush elevated pitches and slap extra line drives is sweet strategy, however in an effort to comply with by means of with that plan, Bell must be affected person on the plate. His scorching streaks show that he has the plate self-discipline expertise obligatory for this plan of assault, however his chilly streaks exhibit that he nonetheless has work to place in. It’s the distinction between this:

…and this:

In Sport 2 of the NLCS, Bell noticed 13 pitches and swung simply 5 instances. Just one pitch he provided at was within the decrease half of the strike zone, and even that one ended up fairly near the center. All three of his hits got here on pitches excessive within the zone. It represented a transparent enchancment upon the plate self-discipline he confirmed throughout his 0-for-14 stretch, when he swung at 52% of pitches he noticed, with 13 of these cuts approaching pitches within the decrease third of the zone and one other 13 on pitches exterior of the zone altogether.

When Bell is seeing the ball effectively and exercising restraint together with his swings, he could be probably the most fearsome hitters in baseball. The Phillies realized that the arduous approach on Wednesday, and so they’re going to must be just a little extra cautious how they pitch to him for the remainder of the NLCS.