The Marlins have been the topic of jokes aplenty this winter after they added two established second basemen, Luis Arraez and Jean Segura, to a roster that already featured a number of succesful keystone defenders. But all jokes apart, Kim Ng’s unconventional technique of roster building has labored out fairly effectively to this point. Arraez leads all main second basemen with a 151 wRC+, and his protection is tolerable so long as he retains hitting. In the meantime, Jazz Chisholm Jr., although at the moment on the IL, has adjusted well to center field, and Jon Berti and Joey Wendle have been a superb defensive tandem at shortstop.
Nonetheless, the second baseman the Marlins signed to play third is struggling terribly. Segura is slashing .200/.268/.236 (the uncommon .200/.200/.200 batting line, often known as a Paul Janish), and he’s considered one of solely 5 certified hitters with no residence run (an achievement referred to as a Reggie Willits). His 43 wRC+ ranks final in baseball, as does his .231 wOBA and .504 OPS. The one certified hitter with a decrease WAR is José Abreu, who has had a further 5 video games through which to be dreadful. Segura’s solely saving grace is that he has hit effectively in 15 high-leverage plate appearances (.385 AVG, 134 wRC+), besides, his -1.31 WPA is the worst within the Nationwide League.
The final certified batter to complete with a wRC+ under 45 was Clint Barmes, who posted a 38 wRC+ in 2006. Since then, solely 5 different gamers have even completed under 50; usually, hitters both enhance because the yr goes on, or they don’t get sufficient enjoying time to qualify. As for the handful who lasted a full season with such a feeble bat, the one one to have been an above-average hitter all through the remainder of his profession was Chris Davis of the Baltimore Orioles. His 46 wRC+ in 2017 was an enormous step down from his profession 117 wRC+ to that time.
So which is able to it’s for Segura: Will he enhance, will he be compelled right into a bench position, or is he doomed to develop into the subsequent Davis? Fortunately for the broadly beloved infielder, the primary of these outcomes appears the most certainly. His .298 xwOBA is his worst since 2015, but it surely’s practically 70 factors greater than his precise wOBA and solely 5 factors decrease than his xwOBA in 2022. Furthermore, that is the primary season in his profession that Segura isn’t outperforming his xwOBA. Over the previous six years, he has constantly outperformed his xwOBA by about 15 factors every season. If his wOBA was at the moment 15 factors greater than his xwOBA, it will match the NL common at third base.
Certainly, Segura appears to be a sufferer of circumstance in 2023. He usually runs a BABIP 5-10% higher than league common, however this yr his .243 BABIP is likely one of the lowest within the recreation. It’s laborious to imagine that quantity received’t regress to the imply; Segura hasn’t gotten a lot slower, and he nonetheless sprays groundballs in all instructions. Moreover, whereas he has but to hit a house run, he has hit 23 fly balls. With a league-average HR/FB charge (or his personal common from the previous three years — the quantity is similar), he would have hit three lengthy balls by now. Per Statcast, he would have at the least one residence run in 26 of 30 stadiums, two residence runs in 17 of 30, and three residence runs if he performed all his video games at Wrigley or American Household Subject. All in all, 4 of his balls within the air would have gone out at the least a few ballparks. Simply have a look at how shut a few of his fly balls obtained to the seats:
If Segura had a league-average BABIP (presuming all additional hits have been singles) and a league-average HR/FB charge, his slash line would rise from Janish territory to a serviceable .257/.319/.343. That’s nothing to be pleased with, but it surely’s not too far off from his preseason ZiPS projection of .271/.329/.387. Extra to the purpose, these numbers actually wouldn’t warrant an article about what went unsuitable. Thus, I’m not overly involved about Segura simply but. He appears to be on the decline, however his abilities haven’t fallen off a cliff the best way his 43 wRC+ would recommend. Nonetheless, whereas I’ve you right here, let’s take a more in-depth have a look at what’s gone unsuitable for the person as soon as referred to as Jean, Jean, the Hit Machine.
The largest factor lacking from Segura’s recreation proper now could be energy. Even with these additional residence runs and a league-average BABIP, his .343 slugging share and .086 ISO would symbolize a large drop-off from his previous manufacturing and would rank among the many worst within the recreation. But unusually sufficient, his common exit velocity and hard-hit charge have barely modified. His common launch angle is down, however his sweet-spot share (batted balls with a launch angle between 8-32 levels) has fallen lower than one % from final yr and solely 2.4% from his profession common.
Much more uncommon, Segura is definitely making much less contact labeled as “poor” by Baseball Savant. In 2022, 67.3% of his batted balls have been categorized as both “weak,” “topped,” or “underneath.” This yr, that quantity is right down to 63.2%. The issue, nonetheless, is that he isn’t barreling the ball both; his barrel charge is right down to 2.4%. Meaning extra of his contact has fallen into the “flare/burner” and “strong” buckets. These are each fantastic types of contact, however flares and burners hardly ever result in additional base hits, and the ability potential of strong contact pales compared to the ability potential of the barrel.
The truth that Segura’s hard-hit charge and sweet-spot share haven’t modified very a lot signifies that he’s nonetheless able to hitting the ball laborious and on the optimum angle, however his low barrel charge tells us he simply hasn’t been doing each on the identical time. It’s laborious to know what to make of this data. On the one hand, it means the talents are nonetheless there; on the opposite, it suggests he isn’t timing up pitches in addition to he used to.
As I evaluate numbers from the previous two years, it’s value protecting in thoughts that Segura’s decline didn’t come out of nowhere this season. As an alternative, his energy started to vanish partway by the 2022 marketing campaign. On the time, many individuals attributed the issue to the damaged finger he suffered on the finish of Might. On a bunt try gone unsuitable, Segura broke his proper index finger and spent the subsequent two months recovering. The distinction between his energy numbers pre- and post-injury was stark; his ISO dropped from .132 to .091, whereas his common exit velocity fell by greater than 4 mph.
Nonetheless, should you look just a little nearer on the highs and lows of Segura’s 2022 season, you’ll see his energy truly began to fall off just a few weeks earlier than the damage. From Opening Day by Might 14, Segura had a .200 ISO and a 92.8-mph common EV. Greater than half his balls in play have been labeled as hard-hit. Then, beginning Might 15, he went into a large droop. Over his subsequent 16 video games, he had just one extra-base hit. His ISO was .016 and his common exit velocity fell to 84.9 mph. His hard-hit charge dropped in half, and he was driving way more balls straight into the filth.
As Robert Orr wrote for Baseball Prospectus final Might, Segura discovered success early within the season by swinging at extra fastballs and fewer offspeed pitches. This strategy labored at first, however the draw back was clear: He was extra susceptible towards breaking balls. As Orr defined, “By leaping the more durable stuff, Segura should decide to swinging earlier and swing more durable than he has previously to catch as much as the upper velocity.” In different phrases, by searching fastballs, he was extra prone to get fooled by pitches with much less velocity and extra motion.
Because it occurred, Segura’s swing charge towards breaking balls rose all through the month, sitting slightly below 60% from Might 15-31. This was an issue for a few causes. For one, breaking balls induce extra whiffs, and Segura must put the ball in play to succeed. To make issues worse, even when he wasn’t whiffing, his high quality of contact was poor – maybe that’s what occurs while you’re hoping for a fastball and also you simply barely handle to make contact with a breaking pitch as a substitute. He was hitting breaking balls with much less authority, and he was sending most of them into the bottom. When he did handle to hit one just a little greater, the outcomes have been simply as unhealthy – he didn’t pull a single breaking ball within the air over the ultimate two weeks of the month.
Sadly, Segura’s struggles towards breaking balls have continued in 2023. He swings at extra breaking balls than every other pitch, and thus far he has a .160 wOBA, a .217 xwOBA, and a 28% whiff charge for his hassle. When breaking pitches are within the zone, he virtually all the time makes contact however doesn’t do a lot harm. After they’re exterior the zone, he’s been swinging and lacking greater than ever. Breaking pitches have damaged the hit machine, and severe repairs are so as.
Jean Segura has made a profession out of creating strong contact, and making strong contact with all the things. As his low strikeout charge will attest, he’s nonetheless obtained a number of the finest bat-to-ball abilities in recreation. The “strong” half, nonetheless, wants some work. If he’s going to enhance his numbers (past the anticipated regression), he wants to regulate his strategy towards sliders and curves.
