The Dodgers Have Had a Strange Offseason

Perhaps we shouldn’t doubt the Dodgers. They’ve received 9 out of the final 10 NL West titles, and within the 12 months they didn’t win the division, they received 106 video games. They’re juggernauts by design, a group constructed to resist the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune. They draft properly, develop properly, spend a ton of cash, and spend that cash intelligently. They’re the closest factor baseball has to a dynasty today, and given the inherent randomness of the playoffs, that’s not prone to change anytime quickly.

That’s all true – and regardless of all of it, I’m leaning in the direction of doubting their probabilities in 2023. For the primary time in years, I don’t have to leap by way of hoops to provide you with causes to take action. The Dodgers seem like the most effective groups in baseball, however they now not look, no less than to me, like absolutely the class of the league. It’s bizarre to consider it that means, however let’s discuss by way of it collectively.

First issues first: the Dodgers misplaced a ton of excellent free brokers this 12 months, similar to they do yearly. That’s merely the price of doing enterprise once you’re good as constantly as they’re; your group will naturally be full of nice gamers approaching free company. This 12 months’s iteration of the group misplaced a whopping 21.3 WAR value of 2022 manufacturing, the best mark within the majors. The listing of the highest 5 groups in the case of misplaced 2022 manufacturing is a who’s who of golf equipment making an attempt to contend proper now:

Hey, once you have a look at it that means, it’s not so unhealthy! The Yankees and the Mets are proper there with the Dodgers. Solely, you need to think about either side of the ledger. The Yankees, for instance, misplaced 11.4 WAR value of manufacturing from Aaron Judge alone. However uh, they nonetheless have Choose after signing him again in free company. Listed below are these 5 groups once more, with two new columns this time: 2022 WAR added in free company and the online beneficial properties or losses total:

The Dodgers have skilled the most important expertise drain within the majors this offseason. The crop of free brokers they’ve signed produced 14.3 fewer WAR in 2022 than the previous Dodgers who departed in free company. That’s the bottom mark within the majors by far:

These losses aren’t contained to a single space. Trea Turner was arguably their finest participant in 2022. Tyler Anderson and Andrew Heaney gave them useful begins and innings. The bullpen misplaced an combination 153.2 innings of wonderful pitching, to the tune of a 2.87 ERA and three.02 FIP (excluding the mop-up innings that Hanser Alberto dealt with). Justin Turner posted a 123 wRC+. Even Cody Bellinger, who left after the group non-tendered him, performed glorious protection and accounted for 1.7 WAR regardless of his continued offensive failings.

In Dan Szymborski’s not too long ago printed ZiPS projections, you possibly can see the group’s shortcomings. For the primary time because the 2019 season, the Dodgers have a beginning place projected for lower than two WAR – James Outman and Miguel Vargas mix to venture for 1.2 WAR in left area, and Outman and Trayce Thompson venture for 1.9 WAR in middle. A second base by committee scenario barely clears that arbitrary 2.0 WAR bar; Chris Taylor, Max Muncy, and Michael Busch are the headliners of a bunch that ZiPS tasks for two.1 WAR.

After all, it was by no means affordable to count on a group to proceed racking up common season wins on the clip the Dodgers have managed in recent times. Prior to now 5 full seasons, they’ve averaged 104 wins per 12 months. They performed at a 116-win tempo within the shortened 2020 season. In need of churning out a brand new batch of phenoms, they had been by no means going to carry that tempo.

That’s to not say that their farm system hasn’t produced massive league expertise. Vargas, Busch, and Outman are all rookies. Diego Cartaya and Andy Pages are every solely 21, however each seem like future stars. There’s a crop of pitchers on the way in which, too, led by Bobby Miller. Tony Gonsolin and Dustin May are younger, controllable, and glorious. As of final season’s finish, The Board had the Dodgers because the quantity seven farm system within the recreation even after all of the trades they’ve made prior to now few years.

However should you’re on the lookout for a 12 months the place the Dodgers appear mortal, 2023 is likely to be your finest wager. Gavin Lux is not any positive factor at shortstop. Vargas has performed precisely one inning at third base within the majors. Muncy is 32 and will probably be enjoying out of place virtually day-after-day; he’s posted respectable numbers at second base, however with incoming defensive positioning restrictions, his vary and arm will probably be examined greater than ever. The Dodgers’ offense will nonetheless be glorious – they’ve Freddie Freeman, Mookie Betts, and Will Smith anchoring their lineup – but it surely’s unlikely to be one of the best lineup within the recreation this 12 months. Per our Depth Charts projections, they’ve the eighth-best crop of place gamers.

The beginning rotation checks in at ninth in those self same projections, although I feel that underrates the Los Angeles starters. Lacking Walker Buehler will undoubtedly harm, however even with out him, they’ll run out 5 above-average starters with extra reinforcements out there within the excessive minors. They’ve additionally proven a constant potential to get extra out of short-term free agent signings than anticipated; would it not shock anybody to see Noah Syndergaard bounce again this 12 months?

The Dodgers are nonetheless betting favorites to win the division, however they’re almost neck-and-neck with the Padres, and our projections just like the Padres extra. This certainly hasn’t gone unnoticed in Chavez Ravine. Even when the Dodgers are extra optimistic about their inside replacements than our projections, the expertise drain is plain. Why haven’t they completed extra in free company?

I’ve a couple of concepts, none of that are ironclad. First, it’s value noting that the Dodgers will seemingly squeeze below the primary aggressive stability tax threshold this 12 months. That threshold is $233 million, and we at the moment have the Dodgers juuuuuust below, with a projected $232,899,125 CBT payroll. Being a greenback below that threshold has large financial advantages because of repeat overage penalties.

The aggressive stability tax price adjustments primarily based each on the quantity by which a group exceeds the primary CBT threshold and the variety of seasons in a row that group has exceeded the primary threshold. Right here’s the matrix of potential tax charges primarily based on these two variables:

How does this have an effect on the Dodgers’ complete payroll outlay? In each 2021 and ’22, the Dodgers exceeded the primary CBT threshold. That implies that in the event that they finish the 12 months with a payroll above $233 million, they’ll pay the best potential tax price on their overages.

That may add as much as some huge cash. For example, think about that beginning in 2024, the Dodgers run a CBT payroll of precisely $300 million yearly. In the event that they head into 2024 after not paying any tax in ’23, they’ll owe $91 million in funds from ’24 to ’26. In the event that they as an alternative run that very same $300 million payroll yearly, however head into 2024 having exceeded the primary threshold for 3 straight years, they’ll owe $122 million over these three years. That’s a considerable financial savings, and this 12 months is the primary the place it’s made sense for the Dodgers to take action; they couldn’t have fairly ducked below the brink in 2021 or ’22 because of roster development, however that they had an enormous variety of gamers depart this winter.

This case is much more precarious because of Trevor Bauer’s contract. Bauer received an appeal that diminished his suspension by a 12 months. He’s now due roughly $22.5 million this 12 months, which counts towards the group’s CBT payroll no matter whether or not Bauer rejoins the group (his wage is included within the projected CBT payroll determine referenced above). The uncertainty round that call reportedly factored into the group’s conservative offseason plans, and given how shut they’re to exceeding the primary threshold, it appears seemingly that they made their selections with Bauer’s attraction in thoughts. They might need to make additional concessions to stay below the CBT restrict, however given their proximity to it and their decision-making thus far this offseason, I’m guessing resetting their CBT standing is essential to them.

That price financial savings ties into my subsequent concept: the Dodgers are setting as much as land Shohei Ohtani subsequent offseason. Ohtani seems to be headed for the most important contract in historical past, and with good purpose: he’s a generational expertise hitting free company in his prime. The bidding will probably be fierce, and a few early estimates have eclipsed a $500 million complete contract dimension. Groups that suppose they stand an inexpensive shot of touchdown Ohtani ought to completely be planning round that now if it doesn’t mess with their present plans an excessive amount of, and I’d argue that the Dodgers have completed simply that.

Regardless of their constantly excessive spending habits, the Dodgers are hardly within the enterprise of signing a prime free agent yearly. They’ve completed quite a lot of group constructing by growing and increasing their very own gamers or by buying and selling for stars. For each Freddie Freeman, there’s a Julio Urías. Even should you consider Betts as basically a free agent signing – they traded for him a 12 months earlier than he would attain free company and gave him an extension that 12 months – he and Freeman are the one gamers incomes greater than $20 million a 12 months. Clayton Kershaw is available in at precisely $20 million. The Dodgers run massive combination payrolls, however they do this as a result of they pay as much as retain their very own gamers.

Should you suppose that they’ll usually proceed to construct the roster in that fashion, including one other top-tier free agent this offseason would begin to complicate their potential to signal Ohtani whereas operating a remotely affordable payroll. One of many Dodgers’ long-running strengths has been depth; when one in all their stars disappoints or will get injured, they all the time appear to have another person to throw into the combination. Most groups lose these gamers to roster crunch and free company, however not the Dodgers. They constantly have extra succesful beginning pitchers than they will use in a rotation at one time, and so they gave each Taylor and Muncy eight-figure common annual values to keep up that depth. In the event that they’re intent on persevering with that roster fashion and have their eyes on an enormous title within the 2024 class, it will make sense to sit down ’23 out for essentially the most half.

One different choice: perhaps the Dodgers simply didn’t like all of the highest free brokers this 12 months. Choose was the one top-tier outfielder available on the market this offseason, and if the Dodgers are greater on Lux than trade consensus, it’s fully affordable that they merely didn’t see a purpose to splurge on a shortstop once they had a younger participant of their very own they wished to provide the job. Positive, there have been loads of glorious pitchers out there, however I like their rotation, and it’s fully potential that they aren’t prepared to provide long-term offers to pitchers, interval. To one of the best of my data, they haven’t signed a pitcher to a contract longer than three years since Kenley Jansen’s extension kicked in means again in 2017.

No matter what the Dodgers are doing, I don’t suppose you possibly can write this offseason off as merely them being cheapskates. Their entrance workplace has constantly been the most effective within the recreation for a decade, and possession has by no means been averse to spending when it is smart. It’s enjoyable to play armchair GM and say {that a} group merely isn’t doing sufficient, or that they don’t know how one can construct a winner. That may be a laughable declare right here; the Dodgers have proven time and time once more that they deserve the good thing about the doubt.

That is no blind attraction to authority; the Dodgers are a well-run group. That doesn’t make their plan any much less attention-grabbing, although. The Dodgers might have completed extra to maximise their 2023 group’s probabilities of successful the NL West or the World Sequence. Should you might ask Andrew Friedman that query in personal, I’m positive he’d concur. The query, then, is what they’re doing as an alternative. I feel they’re constructing to a in another way formed however nonetheless dominant group in 2024. Their NL West opponents can be properly suggested to place their finest foot ahead this 12 months – I don’t know what the longer term holds, but it surely’s fully potential that 2023 will find yourself because the weakest Dodger group of the last decade.