The Dodgers Are Once Again Chasing History, as a Marathon and a Sprint

With Tuesday night time’s 4–3 win over the Mets at Citi Subject, the Dodgers notched their ninetieth victory of the season, the second time within the final seven years that the workforce reached 90 wins earlier than the top of August. Even with a subsequent pair of losses on Wednesday night and Thursday afternoon, the Dodgers as soon as once more have a shot not simply at 100 wins (a plateau they’ve reached 4 occasions in six full seasons beneath supervisor Dave Roberts) and even 106 (a franchise document set in 2019 and matched final 12 months), but additionally on the 2001 Mariners’ expansion-era document of 116 wins, although admittedly their odds for that one grew longer this week.

The Dodgers enter Friday with an 18-game lead over the Padres within the NL West and a magic variety of 14 (and might rapidly shrink the latter with their sequence in San Diego this weekend). Regardless of their sequence loss in New York, they’re nonetheless seven video games forward of the Mets (84–48) within the race for the NL’s greatest document and thus the highest seed within the expanded postseason. Our Playoff Odds mission them to complete with 109 wins, which might be the majors’ highest complete for the reason that aforementioned Mariners. Through our Odds distribution, they’ve a 62.1% probability of profitable at the least 109, although after their back-to-back losses, their probabilities of profitable 116 or extra video games are all the way down to 1.1%.

Earlier this 12 months, it was the Yankees who have been on pace to top 116 wins, however their 13–13 July snuffed that dream out, and a ten–18 August has put even a 100-win season doubtful. The Dodgers, who briefly slipped into second place within the NL West on June 17, once they have been 39–24, had a lead of simply 1.5 video games over the Padres as lately as June 29. They’ve gone 45–12 (.789) since that date, with separate profitable streaks of seven, eight, and 12 video games.

You’ll be able to see these streaks because the lengthy runs elevating their full-season win tempo on this comparability to that of the Yankees. The 2 groups appeared to reflect one another for awhile this summer time:

I needed to begin the x-axis on the 10-game mark to make for a legible vertical scale (at 1–2, the Dodgers had a 54-game win projection) and lower each groups off at 130 video games lest I crash our graph maker; the Yankees have now performed 131 video games and are on a 98-win tempo.

Anyway, my primary level is that not till the 103-game mark (July 31 for the Yankees, August 2 for the Dodgers) did Los Angeles pull forward of New York, thanks largely to the 45–11 run that ended with Wednesday’s loss. Solely three groups within the growth period have gained extra video games over a 56-game span, two of them Dodgers squads of latest classic:

I restricted the desk to solely the newest and most profitable single-season stretch for every workforce. For instance, the 2017 Dodgers had eight 47–9 overlapping stretches, the primary of which started on June 7, in addition to seven 46–10 stretches, however they solely get one entry above, and likewise for the opposite groups.

With 90 wins of their first 130 video games, these Dodgers are tied for fourth amongst expansion-era groups to that time:

Except for Cleveland’s 1995 juggernaut, which performed a shortened schedule because of the strike, all of these groups completed with at the least 102 wins and a pennant (earlier than the division play period started in 1969) or at the least a division title. Ten of the 13 groups gained the pennant, with 5 of them profitable the World Collection — one more reminder that nothing is computerized, even for the perfect regular-season groups, and that the marathon of 162 video games is totally different from the dash in October.

That’s notably true within the Wild Card period, when simply seven groups which have completed with at the least a share of the majors’ greatest common season document have gone on to win the World Collection. The final of these was the Dodgers, who went 43–17 (.717) in 2020 — not fairly a half-marathon — earlier than surviving a best-of-three, a best-of-five, and two best-of-sevens to win their first championship since 1988.

“I don’t know if existential is the precise phrase,” Roberts advised reporters earlier than Wednesday’s recreation at Citi Subject when requested concerning the distinction between the common season and the postseason. “In case you’re wanting on the mechanics of 162 [games] after which a dash the place something can occur, it doesn’t make an entire lot of sense. However after all, [having] extra groups concerned in a postseason, in a pennant race, is smart and is nice for followers.

“We don’t make the schedule or the construction,” he continued. “We play by the principles, and we’re going to discover a method to attempt to win this factor.”

With such a large division lead, Roberts has to steadiness making ready his workforce for October — nursing injured gamers again to well being, sorting by lineups and roles — and sustaining give attention to the day-to-day enterprise of profitable. “I feel it’s a tremendous line, however the way in which we take a look at it’s if we have now 26 guys, and [on Sept. 1], I’ve 28 guys on the roster, the one focus is to win that specific recreation, no matter who’s taking part in. That can maintain the main target and the sting as a result of that’s not altering. Whether or not I need to give Freddie [Freeman] a day or Trea [Turner]… we’re nonetheless attempting to win.”

The 2017 season was a subject of dialogue in that pregame session. That 12 months, the Dodgers have been 91–36 by August 25, up 21 video games within the NL West race, and had gained 16 of their final 20 video games, however proceeded to lose 16 of their subsequent 17. Requested if there have been classes from that epic slide that he might cross on to those gamers, Roberts was cautious and quite cryptic. “There’s some guys which can be right here which have carried over from ’17, however a lot of the guys [weren’t here].” Certainly, solely eight gamers from the 2017 workforce are nonetheless round: Clayton Kershaw, Austin Barnes, Cody Bellinger, Chris Taylor, and Justin Turner have been central to the solid; Walker Buehler, Julio Urías, and Trayce Thompson performed solely bit elements.

“There have been some issues that affected our psyche that 12 months in September — September 1 being a key date — that don’t make sense,” Roberts mentioned. “And it affected some gamers and the way in which we performed. No excuses, we didn’t play effectively. However I don’t suppose that’s going to be the case this 12 months.”

The supervisor declined to elaborate on the specifics of that September 1 date. On the time, it was notable primarily as a result of the workforce activated Kershaw from the disabled checklist following a five-week absence as a consequence of a decrease again pressure, and he threw six shutout innings towards the Padres; on Thursday, precisely 5 years later, the three-time Cy Younger award winner returned from a again harm and threw 5 innings of one-run ball towards the Mets. On that 2017 day, Andre Ethier was activated after lacking all the season as a consequence of a herniated disc, and Alex Verdugo was known as up from Triple-A to make his debut. That very same day, Diamondbacks nearer Fernando Rodney told reporters he hoped that his workforce confronted the Dodgers within the playoffs (he obtained his want, however Arizona was swept, and he didn’t even get to pitch). The loss to the sign-stealing Astros in Recreation 7 of the World Collection was two months away, so the blow to the psyche that Roberts was alluding to stays a thriller.

For the supervisor, his workers, and Dodgers brass, the highest precedence this September is sorting by the workforce’s pitching choices. Buehler is already out for the season as a consequence of Tommy John surgical procedure, and the workforce has additionally misplaced Tony Gonsolin, who was main the NL with a 2.10 ERA, with what has been described as a forearm pressure. Given Gonsolin’s latest workloads — he set a brand new excessive with 128.1 innings after throwing simply 68.1 final 12 months between the majors and minors and never topping 81.1 since 2018 — the presumption was that the Dodgers have been getting the 28-year-old righty some downtime in order to not push him too exhausting. However “pressure” is an oddly particular and ominous phrase to make use of in such an occasion when vaguer phrases like soreness, stiffness, or discomfort will suffice till a transparent prognosis is made. On Thursday, Roberts revealed that Gonsolin had not progressed in addition to hoped and would bear an MRI on Friday, suggesting an extended outage may very well be in retailer. Gulp.

With out Gonsolin, the Dodgers can nonetheless draw from a pool of starters that features Urías, Kershaw, Tyler Anderson, Dustin May, and Andrew Heaney. Los Angeles’ rotation owns the majors’ lowest ERA (2.84), FIP (3.40) and WAR (20.2), however Kershaw has now been on the IL twice this season, Might has solely simply labored his method again from Might 2021 Tommy John surgical procedure within the final week, and Heaney has spent about two days on the IL for each one of many 46.2 innings he’s thrown as a consequence of shoulder woes.

Then there’s the bullpen, the place nearer Craig Kimbrel has been as erratic as his 4.14 ERA suggests; the place Blake Treinen hasn’t pitched since April 14 as a consequence of a shoulder pressure (he’s as a consequence of be activated this weekend); the place Daniel Hudson is out for the 12 months as a consequence of an ACL tear in his left knee; and the place Brusdar Graterol has made simply 4 appearances between a bout of shoulder irritation that sidelined him earlier than the All-Star break and a bout of elbow irritation that despatched him again to the IL this week.

Referring to the variety of good arms accessible, Roberts known as determining his October rotation “a high-class drawback,” however hinted on the query marks by including, “Possibly afterward, in about two weeks when we have now that dialogue, much more finite, [it] could also be an issue… in some unspecified time in the future in time, we’re gonna have these exhausting conversations and determine roles for guys.” That will embody determining whether or not Might can grow to be a weapon out of the bullpen, or whether or not Gonsolin must pair up with one other pitcher if his pitch rely isn’t absolutely constructed up.

For the Dodgers, who entered this season with an expansion-era record .636 winning percentage over the earlier 5 seasons, these harm considerations and the brand new playoff format (which would require leaning on back-end starters for extra innings given the reduction in off-days) signify their largest vulnerability as they try so as to add one other championship. They’ve mastered the common season, aced the check, chased the excessive rating. If doing the identical in October is one other matter, it nonetheless counts as a high-class drawback.