Cristian Javier had constructed a powerful postseason resume forward of Recreation 7 of the ALCS. Throughout 12 aid appearances and 4 begins, he had compiled a 2.08 ERA and seven.5% championship win chance added. His first three begins within the playoffs had been notably spectacular; he held the Yankees scoreless on a single hit in final yr’s ALCS, was the beginning pitcher of the Astros’ mixed no-hitter within the World Collection, and held the Twins to a single hit within the ALDS this yr. His 18 complete hits allowed and .123 opponent’s batting common had been by far the bottom amongst any pitcher with greater than 40 postseason innings pitched.
With such a powerful observe document, the Astros needed to really feel assured handing him the ball on Monday night time. However issues didn’t go in response to plan, as Javier lasted six batters and recorded only a single out, permitting three runs on 4 hits and a stroll, earlier than getting pulled. It was his worst postseason outing of his profession and an enormous purpose why Houston isn’t again within the World Collection to defend its championship.
Earlier than I dive into the main points of his outing, I need to return and have a look at Javier’s season as a complete. After his breakout 2022, he signed a five-year extension throughout the offseason, however he stumbled to a 4.56 ERA and 4.58 FIP this previous season, along with his strikeout fee falling 10 factors from the yr prior.
The basis of his issues appeared to stem from his fastball. Javier is actually a two-pitch pitcher, along with his four-seamer making up practically 60% of his pitch combine, however he can get away with such a restricted repertoire as a result of his heater is simply outstanding. He throws from a low three-quarters arm slot however is ready to generate an elite quantity of journey on the pitch; elevating a pitch with these traits is a surefire approach to produce one of many flattest four-seamers in baseball.
The shifting bodily traits of his main pitch paint a fairly clear image of the ebbs and flows of his success over the previous three seasons:
Cristian Javier, Fastball Traits
| Dates | Velocity | IVB | Vertical Launch | Spin Charge | Spin Axis | Spin/Velo Ratio | VAA AA | Stuff+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 93.6 | 17.9 | 5.59 | 2337 | 203.2 | 25.0 | +0.52 | 103 |
| 2022 | 93.8 | 19.0 | 5.65 | 2356 | 206.3 | 25.1 | +0.32 | 120 |
| Early 2023 | 92.6 | 18.4 | 5.75 | 2241 | 201.3 | 24.2 | +0.26 | 95 |
| Late 2023 | 92.9 | 18.9 | 5.68 | 2271 | 205.5 | 24.4 | +0.40 | 110 |
| Postseason 2023 | 93.5 | 19.9 | 5.74 | 2372 | 203.0 | 25.4 | 131 |
Postseason VAA knowledge unavailable
Javier’s breakout in 2022 was largely fueled by an added inch of induced vertical break on his fastball and a honed capability to find that pitch up within the zone. He’s all the time been in a position to get swings and misses with the pitch, however now he was additionally lacking barrels and inducing numerous weak fly balls and popups. After growing his workload by nearly 50 innings and setting a career-high in innings pitched, he entered this season throwing his fastball greater than a mile per hour slower than final yr. That lack of velocity mixed with a barely much less environment friendly spin profile led to a dip in induced vertical break. His launch level was marginally greater as nicely, which steepened the pitch’s trajectory because it crossed the plate.
Javier managed to appropriate a lot of these small points throughout the second half of the season, enhancing the journey and reducing his launch level. His last three regular-season begins had been notably good: 5 runs allowed throughout 15.2 innings on simply 9 hits with 21 strikeouts. And as soon as the postseason began, his fastball appeared higher than it had all season lengthy. The adrenaline of October baseball helped him enhance his velocity again as much as the place it was final yr, and his journey was higher than ever. His launch level was again up a bit, which might have affected his vertical strategy angle, even with the improved velocity and journey on the pitch; sadly, I don’t have that knowledge for his postseason begins. However regaining the elite form on his heater looks like the large purpose why he was so good throughout his first two postseason begins this yr.
From a outcomes standpoint, it’s clear that the success of his fastball is essentially depending on the quantity of induced vertical break he’s imparting on the pitch, one thing borne out within the knowledge:
Cristian Javier, Fastball Outcomes by IVB
| IVB | Whiff% | Exhausting Hit% | wOBA | xwOBA | Run Worth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| >20″ | 34.8% | 34.40% | 0.202 | 0.229 | 33.8 |
| 19″-20″ | 32.9% | 37.10% | 0.299 | 0.284 | 14.7 |
| 18″-19″ | 22.2% | 36.90% | 0.330 | 0.324 | -0.1 |
| <17″ | 18.2% | 54.80% | 0.419 | 0.439 | -15.4 |
When he’s producing greater than 19 inches of journey, his fastball is nigh unhittable. When it dips under that threshold, batters have a a lot simpler time making contact with authority.
With the form of his fastball trying higher than ever and his velocity restored, you’d count on that the underlying pitch outcomes would have been excellent within the postseason. That wasn’t essentially the case:
Cristian Javier, Fastball Outcomes
| Dates | Whiff% | Exhausting Hit% | wOBA | xwOBA | Run Worth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 26.20% | 50.90% | 0.354 | 0.396 | 0.4 |
| 2022 | 27.10% | 38.70% | 0.266 | 0.265 | 21.8 |
| Early 2023 | 25.20% | 37.20% | 0.332 | 0.337 | 7.3 |
| Late 2023 | 28.30% | 47.90% | 0.327 | 0.356 | 4.3 |
| Postseason 2023 | 22.40% | 39.10% | 0.327 | 0.381 | 0.9 |
It’s an admittedly small pattern — simply 115 fastballs in three begins — however he didn’t see a dramatic change in fortunes along with his four-seamer regardless of the improved bodily traits. His whiff fee dropped a bit, his wOBA allowed barely budged, and his anticipated wOBA shot up.
Let’s get again to Javier’s Recreation 7 begin. He threw simply 15 fastballs in that outing on Monday, they usually had the best common induced vertical break of any single begin in his profession, a whopping 21.1 inches of journey. You’d suppose that with that type of form to his fastball, he would have carved by way of the Rangers’ lineup, however Texas’ hitters had been as much as the problem and chased him early. Right here’s how Martín Maldonado described Javier’s begin in a postgame interview:
“His [velocity] was up. His command wasn’t nice. His off-speed pitches weren’t sharp. I really feel like they’d a very good sport plan in opposition to him. I really feel like he was a bit of amped up. … I assumed he tried to do an excessive amount of.”
Texas’ sport plan was evident from the primary swing of the sport by Marcus Semien.
In a 1–0 depend, Semien swings over a excessive fastball and kilos it into the bottom; that was the one out Javier recorded that night time. The Rangers knew to count on a flat fastball up within the zone and tailor-made their swings to get on prime of the pitch. The end result was 4 balls in play launched with a mean exit velocity of 99.3 mph.
Right here’s Javier’s pitch chart from that night time:
Maldonado’s evaluation appears spot on; Javier letting his fastball fly helped him add a little bit of velocity but in addition led to a bunch of misses up above the zone. Nonetheless, the pitches that had been put into play weren’t that horrible. The fastball that Corey Seager launched for a house run might have been barely greater within the zone, however it’s nonetheless in a location that will have generated loads of whiffs all through Javier’s profession; it was on no account a mistake pitch. And with the quantity of journey he was getting on his fastball, you’d count on to see much more swings beneath his heater. It’s a credit score to Rangers hitters for executing their sport plan to perfection in opposition to a pitcher throwing what might need been his finest stuff of the season.
