The Celtics need Jaylen Brown

As Jaylen Brown and the Boston Celtics proceed to navigate supermax negotiations this summer time, it’s essential to take care of perspective.

For a lot of followers, as the times go by with out a new deal, paranoia creeps additional and additional into the forefront of their minds. Regardless of a myriad of stories stressing that delays in these extensions are typical, at this level, your complete scenario feels removed from regular.

Because the Boston Globe’s Gary Washburn reported a number of days in the past, with Brown having returned from his NBPA retreat in Spain, the 2 sides are anticipated to pick up discussions as soon as once more this week.

That information garners a sigh of aid from a majority of the fan base, however there may be additionally a big subdivision of Celtics followers who would favor to see the crew transfer on from Jaylen by way of commerce. To that group, I provide a easy warning: the grass isn’t all the time greener on the opposite aspect.

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Let’s break down why extending Brown is essential for Boston.

The negatives have been overblown

By now, each Celtics fan with a Twitter account has seen the compilation of Brown turning the ball over whereas dribbling to his left that started circulating following Boston’s Jap Convention Finals loss.

Sure, the video definitely isn’t flattering. Nonetheless, cherry-picking clips to construct a story has solely made followers extra vulnerable to falling into one of many greatest traps in basketball: recency bias.

Turnovers — and particularly decision-making turnovers — are one thing Brown has to work on, however they aren’t the top of the world as some individuals declare to be the case. Let’s take a step again and add some context.

Brown averaged a career-best 26.6 factors per sport final season. That ranked NINTH amongst main scorers within the NBA. It was nice to see Jaylen take that step ahead, particularly contemplating his expanded utilization price, which ranked twelfth amongst qualifying gamers at 30.7%.

So, Jaylen had the ball in his fingers a LOT final season. Based mostly off the aforementioned Twitter video, one would assume that he’s additionally turning it over at an alarming price, proper?

Incorrect.

Brown was tied for twenty sixth in turnovers per sport in 2022-23 with simply 2.9, among the many likes of Domantas Sabonis, Jrue Vacation, and his working mate, Jayson Tatum.

Within the playoffs, that quantity did enhance, however not by as a lot as you’ll count on, because the star averaged 3.3 turnovers per contest. That ranked fifteenth amongst his friends within the postseason.

Dropping the ball continues to be a priority for Brown — I’m not arguing in opposition to that. It’s simply being overblown fairly a bit on this case.

Personally, one space I’d wish to see vital progress from Brown in is his catch-and-shoot three-point proportion, as he solely hit 33.4% of these makes an attempt final season. At this level in his profession, it’s honest to imagine he’s by no means going to be an elite long-range shooter, particularly contemplating his shot quantity. Nonetheless, if Jaylen can bump that catch-and-shoot three proportion to even 36%, it could do wonders for his effectivity and Boston’s general offensive manufacturing.

So, now that we’ve established how the negatives of his sport have been overblown, why don’t we briefly look at the positives?

As I discussed earlier, Brown is a top-10 scorer who supplies elite expertise on the NBA’s most beneficial place on the wing. Whereas it’s straightforward to hark on the latest poor efficiency within the postseason, have we forgotten his efforts within the 2022 NBA Finals in opposition to Golden State? With Jayson Tatum struggling considerably with accidents and confidence, Brown might have packed it in. As an alternative, he put the offense on his again, averaging 23.5 factors per sport in opposition to the eventual champs. The Celtics finally fell wanting elevating Banner 18, however it wasn’t for lack of Brown attempting.

One other essential side of Jaylen’s sport that hardly ever will get mentioned is his willingness to play second fiddle to Tatum. Whereas some nonetheless imagine he would finally wish to land in a scenario the place he might be “the man,” Brown has completed an ideal job at succeeding inside his function because the “1A.” Not like previous gamers in related conditions, he doesn’t make waves about all the time giving his fellow star the final shot, even when it ought to have gone to him.

Merely put, it’s arduous to think about discovering a greater match alongside Tatum on this roster.

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Sustaining roster continuity

Talking of higher matches, why don’t we look at what the crew might seem like if Brad Stevens did determine to commerce him.

Firstly, the idea of shifting on from Jaylen proper now doesn’t make quite a lot of sense. Whereas some groups could not wish to commerce for Brown after he indicators the supermax because of the huge annual cap hit, he will surely have extra worth being locked up long-term than presenting a flight danger to any crew buying him this offseason with just one 12 months left on his deal.

What might Stevens even realistically get in return for Brown? A 33-year-old Damian Lillard with harm issues and an albatross of a contract ready to kick in? Karl-Anthony Cities, who’s a implausible expertise however not an ideal match on this roster or a “successful” basketball participant? An enormous haul of draft picks that may simply be used to finally purchase one other star?

There’s no assure that the return bundle for Brown would make Boston a greater crew. In reality, it’s extra seemingly that it wouldn’t.

Extending Brown isn’t simply logical from a match perspective. It could additionally play a significant function in sustaining roster continuity, which is extra essential than ever contemplating the fixed flux of Boston’s squad over time. Coaches have come and gone, the crew simply traded its “coronary heart and soul” in Marcus Sensible, and one of the crucial beloved locker room guys in Grant Williams departed in free company.

In an effort to win a championship, a crew must construct chemistry. Tatum and Brown have already established that and have discovered constant success because of this.

Whereas most followers don’t wish to hear this, three Jap Convention Finals appearances and one NBA Finals journey within the final 4 years signifies success as a basketball crew. At the least 90% of the league would kill to be in Boston’s scenario.

It’s honest to argue that in these 4 years, regardless of that relative success, the crew hasn’t gotten over the hump. Whereas that’s technically true, it doesn’t imply altering the core make-up of the roster by shifting on from Brown would lead to a greater product.

Stevens has made vital modifications by way of the Marcus Sensible – Kristaps Porzingis commerce this offseason, as a result of he acknowledges that this crew can win with an improved group AROUND Tatum and Brown, not by splitting them up.

Whereas the concept of buying new expertise up could be tempting, make no mistake: the Celtics want Jaylen Brown.