The Celtics are built for the playoffs, just ask our usual tropes (part 1)

Identical to in literature, films, and tv, basketball is an ever-changing narrative panorama. Plots that felt novel and distinctive within the 90’s at the moment are weathered tropes that in all probability get solved with a cellular phone. Seinfeld and firm aimlessly strolling by way of a parking storage is solved by a easy look down at your iPhone’s parked automobile characteristic. So too have we seen a few of our beloved NBA Playoffs tropes eroded to extinction with the passage of time and evolution of the sport.

One in every of my favourite lifeless tropes is that “leap taking pictures groups can’t win the title.” Whereas Steph Curry and the Warriors have been the start of the tip for this one (and possibly the tip of the tip in 2022), each fashionable NBA crew would qualify as a leap taking pictures crew when in comparison with the early 2000s.

There are, nevertheless, some traditional tropes that also maintain robust, three of which we are going to leap into as we speak. First, we’ve got a crowd favourite: “the sport slows down.” The second might be much less relevant given the way in which refs have began calling video games, however alas, it’s additionally true within the playoffs: “the refs swallow their whistles.” The third is an amalgamation of some tropes, issues like not turning it over and defending the defensive glass. I’ve summed it up into one catch-all trope: “you need to win the possession battle.”

*Half 2 will talk about “the refs swallow their whistles” and “you need to win the possession battle.”*

Trope #1: the sport slows down

This one sounds a bit like me making an attempt to persuade my mates to look at The Wire (it’s slower, however it’s completely price it, I promise). Once we speak concerning the sport slowing down, that’s principally shorthand for saying defenses get again faster and crisper. Groups are extra cautious on offense, which limits transition alternatives. To sum it up, playoff basketball is half-court basketball. Nicely, excellent news, everybody!

The Celtics elite offense is, shockingly, elite within the half-court (stats per Cleansing the Glass). Like G.O.B. wanting right into a paper bag labeled “lifeless dove,” which may appear ridiculously apparent, however there have been wonderful common season offenses that relied closely on transition buckets to bolster their effectivity. A number of the Nick Nurse Raptors groups match that profile. It’s like Seinfeld discovering a girlfriend, appears to be like nice on paper, however they’ll have hassle placing a hoop on their finger (in all probability as a result of measurement of her arms). Though the Celtics do rank in the midst of the league in distinction between complete offensive effectivity and halfcourt offensive effectivity.

There are a number of causes for the offensive eliteness, one merely being the ridiculous quantity of expertise on the roster. The Celtics’ half court docket offense is the NBA equal of the Cheers forged. However expertise is meaningless if it isn’t deployed correctly, and Joe Mazzulla has these guys drilled to a Dr. Cox stage of sensible crew basketball.

To state the apparent for a second time on this temporary part, a part of the Celtics’ effectivity is their 3-point assault. Lovingly described as Mazzullaball by some, and mockingly so by others.

All charts from pbpstats.com.

Irrespective of your private emotions on the Cs’ three-point heavy assault, it has been extremely profitable. However we noticed in final 12 months’s Japanese Convention Finals what it will possibly appear to be when the 3s aren’t falling.

Mazzulla promised to develop some curveballs within the offseason to get the offense buzzing when the 3s aren’t blowing groups off the court docket. Nicely, Joe will need to have watched some Sandy Koufax tape (excluding that time Mister Ed hit a homerun off him) as a result of he got here up with an elite one: the put up up.

There are 83 gamers which have 30 or extra put up up possessions this season (per Synergy), 4 Celtics are within the top-25 of effectivity: Jaylen Brown (twenty fifth), Jayson Tatum (seventeenth), Al Horford!! (4th!), and Kristaps Porzingis (1st!). All 4 are deployed in a different way, which supplies the Celtics a various assault even throughout the identical playtype. Porzingis may be very typically used as a high-post hub the place he can shoot excessive or work himself nearer to the ring. JB’s post-ups are normally simply instruments for getting off his elite mid-range jumper, and Tatum typically assaults with spins and fall-aways close to the blocks. Horford post-ups are the equal of a clip present: they aren’t your choice, however typically they work simply high-quality. He punishes small defenders and poor alike when groups attempt to conceal them on him.

Add the post-ups with the Celtics long-range assault, and together with their different numerous units that result in decide and roll possessions and buckets off cuts, and it’s straightforward to see why their half court docket offense is so lethal. Not many groups can boast 4 elite put up up choices and seven of their high 8 taking pictures 37.5% or higher from three (Jaylen being the one man beneath that mark). The Celtics have extra counters than Avon Barksdale. There may be simply no good option to defend this crew.

Now, let’s flip to the opposite aspect of the court docket. Celtics followers can, at occasions, faucet into their interior Kahn and Mihn from King of the Hill. We turn into the overbearing guardian anticipating the crew to earn an A+ in each topic, which is objectively inconceivable within the NBA. On this occasion, the C’s half court docket protection would convey disgrace to the household because it fails to satisfy that lofty commonplace and settles in across the A- vary.

Per Cleansing the Glass, the C’s have the fifth finest half court docket protection within the league, and the third finest protection total (they’re ridiculously good in transition). Their statistical profile is encouraging. The intention of the Celtics is to guard the rim and restrict straight-line drives that drive assist and result in straightforward 2s and wide-open 3s. They’ve been extraordinarily profitable at this; not solely do they restrict the makes an attempt on the rim, however they drive the next proportion of misses on the pictures that do get off.

And whereas the Cs are center of the pack in opponent three-point fee, they’re elite at defending the road.

Additionally they drive the 4th most worst pictures in basketball, the Sandy Lyle memorial lengthy mid-range jumper (“rain dance!”). Whereas Sandy was exceptionally horrible, his effectivity was exponentially broken by his reliance on the lengthy middy, and NBA offenses are not any totally different. You need opponents counting on these pictures to generate offense, as a result of the maths will win the day over the long term.

Permitting round 42.5% on these pictures, which is about common, is equal to an offensive score of 85 factors per 100 possessions. Even the Celtics’ middling middy protection equals a defensive win once they drive opponents into this look. That effectivity would rank lifeless final even in a few of the NBA’s most offensive starved eras.

Much like Dr. Evil’s Preparation H, the Celtics’ gameplan is working, and the entire stats above are proof of such. The Celtics are usually not an aggressive defensive crew, and principally don’t drive turnovers (which we are going to talk about partially 2).

As a substitute, Mazzulla has instituted nearly a comprise model protection, protecting all the pieces in entrance on the perimeter and funneling drives in the direction of the Celtics’ Bond villain stand-in, Kristaps Porzingis. Their elite wing and guard defenders will help and get better towards any kick-outs from deterred rim assaults, permitting groups to generate threes, however typically towards a tough contest.

Taking part in protection this fashion doesn’t serve to strangle offenses in fairly the identical means that the Celtics’ aggressive, switch-everything model beneath Udoka did. The Cs invite groups to shoot lengthy midrange jumpers (though Jrue and White are so good getting round screens, lock and trails, and rear-view contests that it’s not as open as our technique would usually dictate), so groups with gamers comfy within the midrange can generate a good shot almost each possession.

And that’s simply high-quality, the Celtics half court docket offense and protection is enjoying the maths, betting they will outscore you with 3s and rim assaults whereas forcing you to shoot the lights out on the league’s least environment friendly shot or make some effectively contested threes. To cite Ron Burgundy, “it’s science!”