The Bryan Reynolds Conundrum | FanGraphs Baseball

Regardless of three seasons till he hits free company, the Pirates discover themselves at a crossroads with Bryan Reynolds. Pittsburgh transport out veterans as they method profitable paydays is a 30-year-old story, and because the workforce’s younger(ish) star with probably the most service time, it’s no shock that Reynolds could be the topic of fixed, swirling rumors. He and the Pirates talked about an extension, however nothing got here of it; searching for a bit extra readability, the 2021 All-Star requested a trade. Fortunately, not like the Gerrit Cole state of affairs, there hasn’t been a decisive break between participant and group, and Reynolds continues to be open to discussing an extension. However what sort of extension is sensible for Reynolds, and can the Pirates have the ability to subject a contender whereas they’ve him?

Per The Athletic, the Pirates and Reynolds had been about $50 million aside of their extension talks. Provided that this $50 million isn’t, say, the distinction between $300 and $350 million, it’s a notable separation. Pittsburgh’s provide was six years and $75 million, masking just a few years of free company; that may be the most important contract in workforce historical past, however that principally displays the ultra-thrifty method of the Bucs, not some surfeit of munificence on their half. In comparison with the eight-year, $70 million contract that Ke’Bryan Hayes signed, it appears downright miserly, given how distant Hayes was even from arbitration on the time.

Reynolds had a notable dropoff in play from 2021 to ’22, going from .302/.390/.522, 6.1 WAR to .262/.345/.461, 2.9 WAR, however a big chunk of that dropoff was to be anticipated given the sample of what occurs to gamers after career-best seasons. And in any case, there was by no means an opportunity the Pirates had been truly going to supply him a contract in keeping with the notion that he was a six-win participant, as a result of you then’re moving into Juan Soto territory. However as a three- or four-win participant with just a few years of arbitration remaining, it’s shut sufficient for a deal to be believable.

So let’s run the numbers. The present contract, a two-year deal to keep away from arbitration, already covers the 2023 season, so we’ll focus the projection as an extension previous this season.

With built-in reductions for the 2 remaining seasons of arbitration, ZiPS suggests a six-year, $95 million contract for Reynolds. That’s lower than many individuals would possibly assume a participant of his value would possibly get, however he has misfortune of poor timing in the case of baseball’s wage construction. Reynolds is a superb participant, however he’s unlikely to be a star by the point he hits free company, and his first season with a brand new workforce will likely be at age 31. Being 31 didn’t stop Aaron Judge from getting a monster contract, however he’s additionally coming off a season through which he was value effectively greater than double the worth of a typical Reynolds season. Whereas it’s disappointing given Pittsburgh’s historical past with its greatest gamers, one can see the chilly onerous logic in all of it; his arbitration years already cowl all of the projected three-WAR seasons remaining his profession, so why pay free company values for a sub-three WAR participant in his decline years?

Making Reynolds three years youthful highlights simply how a lot cash this may occasionally value him:

Holding the extension at six years, ZiPS desires to offer this theoretical model of Reynolds $159 million, even together with these assumed decrease greenback figures because of arbitration salaries.

Going again to the unique projection, there are causes to argue Reynolds is extra helpful than that $95 million contract that ZiPS would fortunately signal. Protection in ZiPS is essentially OAA-based today (the place accessible), but it surely nonetheless blends in a dose of DRS and UZR (this mannequin predicts OAA higher than OAA alone). There’s vital disagreement amongst defensive measures in the case of Reynolds in heart subject: OAA pegs him at +4 for his profession, however he’s a adverse by UZR (-7) and DRS (a quite dismal -16). If we use solely OAA within the projections, it provides one other $25 million to the projection, getting Reynolds to $120 million. That occurs to be, according to Rob Biertempfel of The Athletic, proper about what the Reynolds camp hoped to get.

“I’ve been fairly open these previous couple of years that my No. 1 (aim) could be to signal an extension,” Reynolds mentioned. “I would like that to be a good deal for either side. Not a loopy player-(pleasant deal), not a loopy team-(pleasant) deal.”

In accordance with a supply near the state of affairs, the Pirates pushed to increase Reynolds close to the top of the 2022 season with a suggestion of $75 million over six years. The counter-offer from Reynolds’ camp was round $120 million.

I don’t assume the Pirates are going to return near $120 million for a pair causes. One, we’re speaking an almost 75% enhance over the most important contract the workforce has ever signed. And with a lot of the good years already underneath contract, there’s simply not lots to push the Pirates into extending Reynolds besides at extraordinarily team-friendly phrases. Whereas $120 million isn’t clearly unreasonable for a workforce, convincing the Pirates of that may be a robust hill to climb, and the very fact stays that it’s unlikely they’re even a contender for 3 years.

To get a tough thought of Pittsburgh’s trajectory, I simulated the 2024 and ’25 seasons utilizing solely gamers underneath contract or management for his or her groups. ZiPS initiatives the Pirates at 68 wins and a 1.3% likelihood of creating the playoffs in 2022. Normal uncertainty and the workforce’s prospects solely enhance these projections to 72 wins and 4.5% in 2024 and 76 wins and eight.1% in ’25. No, these years aren’t written in stone, however the path they’re on isn’t a promising one; it’s unlikely that the workforce goes to bridge the hole between these projections and the Cardinals/Brewers/Cubs in free company.

The connection between the workforce and the followers in Pittsburgh has damaged right down to the extent that I’m unsure conserving Reynolds even preserves curiosity within the workforce. The followers might not be within the room the place it occurs, however they undoubtedly know the way the sausage is made, and signing Reynolds even to the extension his camp is requesting wouldn’t be enough to erase 30 years of dangerous emotions. From the Pirates’ perspective, I feel an eventual commerce is what truly occurs, regardless of the indicators that Reynolds is open to negotiation. And there are quite a lot of groups that would use him. Wanting solely at contenders, ZiPS estimates that he would enhance the middle subject state of affairs of quite a lot of them by no less than a win: the Phillies, Rangers, Astros, Pink Sox, Cubs, and Dodgers, to call just a few. The one heart fielder with a greater projection than Reynolds who’s a free agent within the close to future is Harrison Bader, and I can’t think about the Yankees purchasing him except one thing goes terribly unsuitable this season for the Bombers. In different phrases, there are quite a lot of believable houses for Reynolds’ companies.

Choice day on Reynolds is coming rapidly, and as with previous stars, I anticipate the Pirates to decide on to ship him out of city. To vary this storyline will, sadly, require a drastic change in the best way the workforce thinks, and new possession, too. Daybreak stays a great distance off for the Metal Metropolis.