The 10/90 Scale: Francisco Alvarez

Picture credit score: © Invoice Streicher – USA TODAY Sports activities

Good day there, everybody! Welcome to a different yr of The ten/90 Scale, a pre-season column the place we take a look at a number of the best-case and worst-case eventualities for a specific participant at a given place. For the final couple of years, the inimitable Darius Austin took this on for the BP Fantasy Workforce, however for 2024, you’re caught with me.

In The ten/90 Scale, we’ll use Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA projections to establish a few potential outcomes for every participant I focus on. The commonest projection numbers you’ll see are the Fiftieth-percentile projections, the center of the highway. However for this column’s functions, we’ll take a look at the Ninetieth percentile (a really nice final result) in addition to a tenth percentile (sizzling rubbish final result) to see the place the vary of potentialities lands.

Are you curious about exploring PECOTA slightly deeper? I’d suggest turning into a subscriber, in the event you aren’t already. Our Premium subscribers not solely get this high-quality fantasy content material, but additionally access to the downloadable PECOTA percentiles spreadsheet. Search for anybody you need! Impress your pals and family members! Predict the long run with lethal accuracy!

At any price, my job right here is to have a look at participant who might have slightly extra variance than most, share these potential PECOTA-based outcomes, and focus on the place the fantasy potential lies. Since we kick issues off right here at BP with our week of catchers, and since I’ve bought slightly extra historical past with New York’s Senior Circuit franchise, I feel in the present day’s alternative is exceptionally acceptable. Behold, Francisco Alvarez, among the finest younger catchers in MLB, with a particular emphasis on younger. Different sizzling younger backstops like Adley Rutschman, William Contreras, or Yainer Diaz all are coming into age-25 seasons or older, however Alvarez will likely be heading into his age-22 season for 2024.

After all, with age comes maturity … and infrequently reliability. Whereas Alvarez is prone to see the lion’s share of enjoying time in Queens this yr, he’s unproven and greater than slightly risky. His 2023 season was gangbusters to begin, however his manufacturing fell off significantly because the Mets’ catastrophe season wore on. With Omar Narvaez (for now) within the fold, he gained’t be required to hold the entire catching load coming into 2024, however he will likely be requested to re-establish himself because the workforce’s catcher of the long run. No strain! However let’s see what that might appear like.

The Ninetieth Percentile

462 PA  /  63 R  /  26 HR  /  72 RBI  /  1 SB  /  .251 AVG  /  4.6 WARP

That is close to the higher bounds of PECOTA’s projection on Alvarez for 2024. Almost a five-win participant, this model of Alvarez is an all-round star, an All-Star, if you’ll. His calling card has all the time been top-end energy, and that will get displayed right here with 26 dingers in 462 PA. The Mets’ query mark of a lineup most likely nonetheless limits his R + RBI ceiling, and his lack of pace and get in touch with capability makes 1 SB and a .251 batting common good outcomes on this perfect-world situation. His WARP skews even larger off the power of an excellent defensive (learn: pitch framing) repute that improves a bit from his 2023. That is the end result that makes individuals who speak concerning the Mets begin to need to differentiate between “which Francisco?” when speaking concerning the workforce’s finest participant.

Even on this world, Alvarez most likely doesn’t unseat Pete Alonso within the coronary heart of the batting order, although possibly he takes up residence within the 5 slot. But it surely does present a marked enchancment over his 2023 efficiency, particularly as a result of he’s not beneath league-average as a hitter. In 2023, Alavarez had a DRC+ of 90, primarily attributable to an incapability to achieve base. Alvarez had the kind of batting common that’s a downside to your fantasy workforce, and also you attempt to go get a Luis Arraez kind merely to counteract. He OBP normally was fairly poor as effectively, sliding in beneath the Perez-Elster Line (learn: .300) at .284. This PECOTA projection accounts for lots extra contact, and a bit extra walks as effectively.

The form of this manufacturing seems an terrible like Cal Raleigh‘s 2023 season, which was a rattling effective yr. And to present you some perspective, PECOTA’s Ninetieth-percentile projection on Raleigh seems loads like this line as effectively. So provided that Alvarez is being drafted in NFBC swimming pools across the 147 spot, you might be good-Raleigh manufacturing at a slight low cost from drafting the Mariners’ backstop, who’s going round a spherical earlier.

Take into accout right here that, in PECOTA’s eyes, even a high-end final result doesn’t point out Alvarez turning into an Adley-lite all-round hitting phenom. The problems with contact are actual, and the Mets’ lineup (and development) don’t help enormous numbers in runs and RBI. When you imagine on this younger catcher’s progress and growth, anticipate him to pop greater than a handful of homers, however nonetheless be largely a one-category contributor. There’s extra room to develop in dynasty, the place you may pencil him in for half a decade, however in redraft, he’s extra prone to be a $5 lottery ticket that wins you $20, not $100.

The Tenth Percentile

462 PA  /  48 R  /  16 HR  /  53 RBI  /  1 SB  /  .221 AVG  /  2.1 WARP

Right here’s the low bar for Alvarez to clear … and it’s truthfully not that dangerous. On this scenario, Alvarez doesn’t attain base sufficient to publish strong counting stats, and the common falls off a cliff. Nevertheless, his energy nonetheless pushes via and he runs into sufficient to get 16 homers, however the Mets drop him within the order and he doesn’t do a lot else by way of fantasy stats. In the actual world? Positive. To your fantasy workforce? Ouch. You could possibly’ve gotten a participant in a greater scenario to punch up these R + RBI numbers, or no less than not completely cratered your batting common. This model of Alvarez is droppable, skippable, and missable, and also you’d higher be prepared to fit in an up-and-coming second catcher earlier than your season will get completely out of attain.

On this situation, you most likely had the choice of Alvarez or different, equally drafted-and-valued gamers like Gabriel Moreno, Bo Naylor, or Logan O’Hoppe … or a number of the middle-tier backstops with extra years within the league like Sean Murphy or Willson Contreras. Moreno and Contreras convey loads higher batting common to the desk, Murphy carries with him the dynamite Atlanta lineup (and all of the R and RBI that include that), Naylor has extra general athleticism and on-base, and O’Hoppe … effectively, he’s loads like Alvarez, with extra age and damage danger. (I’m fading him a bit in comparison with the sphere this yr.) However on the Tenth-percentile, Alvarez has no saving grace; two handfuls of residence runs don’t make up for the putrid common. Irrespective of how poorly he performs, he’s guess to get enjoying time in New York, however you may’t run him out on a weekly foundation if he’s struggling to hit big-league breaking stuff to this stage.

Given each side of the equation, I truly see Alvarez as considerably of a medium-risk, higher-floor catching pickup in comparison with some others after the highest tiers of the market–given his age, how wild is that? He doesn’t have a major damage historical past or a severe blocker to enjoying time, and his protection will preserve him within the lineup. He completely will run right into a dozen or extra residence runs, even when he doesn’t crack the Mendoza line, and 25 homers is an affordable projection given what we noticed in earlier years and PECOTA’s knowledge. When you don’t need to go massive on the high of the catching market, I actually like pairing Alvarez with an upside play later (Alejandro Kirk, Henry Davis, and even Shea Langeliers in the event you’re an actual sicko) to create the potential for some optimistic variance with out blowing up your funds or draft slot. Simply be prepared to choose up just a few AVG-first varieties, as a result of even when he has an enormous breakout, you may’t anticipate him to place up massive numbers there.