Szymborski’s 2023 Bust Candidates: Hitters

We’ve reached the purpose within the offseason when it’s time for certainly one of my favourite/most hated preseason traditions: my try and predict breakouts and busts. Since these are past what a projection system suggests are naturally going to be low-probability outcomes, there’s a excessive chance of me trying fairly foolish — one thing writers usually attempt to keep away from. Let’s begin by trying again at how sensible I used to be final yr…or how silly:

Thank goodness I had a weaker yr than common total, as I included a couple of of my favourite gamers within the combine! Being proper for breakouts is a variety of enjoyable, however being proper on the busts is a bit miserable, a particular signal that I’ve mellowed as I enter center age. Trout’s contact price didn’t bounce again, and his BABIP crashed by nicely over 100 factors, however his newfound grounder proclivity disappeared, and the facility enhance greater than compensated for an OBP practically 50 factors beneath his profession common. Riley’s BABIP additionally predictably fell, however he hit the ball tougher and have become a extra well-rounded hitter, crushing most pitches as a substitute of predominantly fastballs. Many of the relaxation got here in on the middle-third of the ZiPS projections, which is a victory for the pc somewhat than me — all that’s aside from Schwindel, who didn’t simply regress towards the imply; he lapped it.

Now, let’s flip to this yr’s picks, as I throw myself upon the tender mercies of fortune.

Paul Goldschmidt, St. Louis Cardinals

I’ve lengthy been a fan of Goldschmidt, so I’m just a little irritated at placing him right here, however he’s additionally one of many gamers who had a famous person season who I believe is more than likely to drop off a ton. You possibly can argue that Aaron Judge will probably drop off much more just by advantage of the very fact he put up an 11-WAR season, however the most effective ZiPS-projected place participant as a bust appears just a little too perverse for even me.

Goldschmidt might be going to be superb nonetheless, however there was extra helium in his BABIP than typical. And whereas he does have a long-term sample of overperforming his anticipated BABIP (18 factors a yr coming into 2022), that’s additionally one thing ZiPS accounts for given how lengthy he’s been doing it; his projection has a BABIP 21 factors larger than it will have been with out that historical past. His 71-point overperformance was the most important of his profession and the second largest in baseball behind Seby Zavala, a part-time catcher who can be an odd selection for this train. The truth that Goldschmidt will flip 36 later this yr definitely isn’t a good factor, both.

Of the eight gamers right here, Goldschmidt is the one I’m most incorrect about and possibly the one who can begin making a Corridor of Fame argument if he ages nicely. He was a man who was undoubtedly underrated as a prospect however regarded good by the numbers; his ZiPS projections as a prospect would have him ranked third if I had carried out a Prime 100 checklist again earlier than the 2012 season. ZiPS thinks he’ll find yourself over 400 homers and inside shouting distance of two,500 hits, and he’s already in the top 20 at first base per my colleague Jay Jaffe’s JAWS, however I’m undecided that’s ok for the BBWAA. I’d solid a vote! But when he does worse than ZiPS suggests, I believe these probabilities get to zero pretty shortly.

Joey Gallo, Minnesota Twins

Gallo definitely may have a bounceback season, however I’m skeptical concerning the normal optimism that the modifications in shift guidelines are going to be as a lot a fix-it for him as many individuals suppose they are going to be. There have been 91 batters who confronted at the least 1,500 pitches when batting left-handed in 2022; Gallo pulled the fewest grounders of that group, getting two hits (a single and a double proper down the road) in 28 alternatives. Somebody like Corey Seager, who went 8-for-111, looks like a greater candidate to scoop up additional hits. Merely put, Gallo, even in an excellent yr, doesn’t truly put that many balls into play, so he’s prone to get much less off a profit from the shift going away than most left-handed hitters.

There’s additionally the truth that from 2015 to ’22, all left-handed hitters mixed for a .204 BABIP when pulling grounders and no shift was in impact. Would 4 additional singles actually have modified something about Gallo’s 2022 efficiency? A .204 BABIP solely nets him 4 singles in 2021, two singles in ’20, and one single in ’19. And with out the shift, he most likely would additionally give again at the least few of his 16 opposite-field groundball singles the final three years. He went 17-for-22 in pulled line drives in 2022, so it’s not like there’s room to enhance considerably there, both.

Gallo has a number of issues as a hitter. He’s all the time been a horrible contact hitter, however his out-of-zone swing proportion ballooned practically 50% from 2022, and although he nonetheless has a superb hard-hit proportion, his common exit velocity has dropped significantly as nicely, which means that his energy has grown much less constant. Ultimately, the truth that his issues are one thing he has to repair in his sport somewhat than one thing that can disappear with the demise of the shift makes me fairly uncertain a that bounceback shall be all that nice.

Nick Castellanos, Philadelphia Phillies

Like with Gallo, I’m in no way satisfied {that a} Castellanos comeback season shall be all that impactful. He’s two years older than Gallo, which truly issues, and his hard-hit proportion fell off a cliff in 2022, down below the 35% mark, a quantity that’s usually seen with good contact hitters and awful everything-else hitters. Castellanos is unquestionably a participant I’d wish to have detailed bat pace information for; his swing regarded quite a bit slower to me final yr than it did when he was in Cincinnati. However failing that, he hit the ball much less forcefully and extra to the alternative subject, and he declined in opposition to fastballs. He’s been working to simplify his swing this offseason, in order that theoretically may assist, however I’m very frightened about him.

Yasmani Grandal, Chicago White Sox

Grandal’s 2022 season was marred by damage, however when he was wholesome sufficient to take the sector, he was completely atrocious. I believe I’d be extra optimistic if he had been absolutely wholesome and had a mechanical downside that wanted to be handled; has anybody each felt higher after being instructed “hey, don’t fear, the 34-year-old catcher was simply injured?” ZiPS is definitely essentially the most bullish of the projection methods with regards to him, however I’m simply not shopping for it. Even his vaunted plate self-discipline regarded a bit shaky final yr. I’d most likely knock off a win off the projection for Grandal in 2023.

C.J. Cron, Colorado Rockies

This isn’t a corporation I praise fairly often, however the Rockies did a extremely good job when it got here to Cron. They picked him up for a pittance at a time when groups had most likely gone too far in downgrading 30-year-old first base/DH sorts and received a strong 2021 season out of him, and whereas 2022 was much less spectacular, it was a discount given his two-year, $14.5 million deal. That mentioned, I believe 2022 is probably going nearer to Cron’s capacity stage at this level than ’21; he’s nicely into the age vary the place decline is probably going, and he’s not beginning off as a star-level participant on the chilly nook. Now we’ll see if the Rockies cross the subsequent take a look at and understand {that a} participant being an excellent stopgap resolution is just not mechanically an excellent long-term resolution and begin in search of Cron’s successor.

Josh Donaldson, New York Yankees

I’m down on Donaldson, and Yankees followers are undoubtedly down on Donaldson — I’d wager that he’d do worse in a ballot of followers than Isiah Kiner-Falefa — however Aaron Boone definitely seems to disagree strongly with that position. Donaldson’s protection has held up suprisingly nicely, however he had one of many largest one-year dropoffs in hard-hit price of any participant in baseball final yr. Add in hitting the ball extra softly with a big degradation of his plate self-discipline, and the truth that he’s 37, and I’ve a robust suspicion of everlasting toastification. I believe the Yankees can be greatest off attempting to get all three of their attention-grabbing younger infielders onto the roster, eat Donaldson’s wage and make him one other crew’s downside.

Salvador Perez, Kansas Metropolis Royals

I’ve been identified to place gamers on consecutive breakout lists — most notoriously with Nomar Mazara for 3 consecutive seasons, which labored out splendidly — however I don’t suppose I’ve ever put a participant on consecutive bust lists. Perez wasn’t precisely a bust offensively in 2022, but it surely was a large dropoff from his loopy 48-homer 2021 season. I believe his offensive decline continues apace largely resulting from who he’s as a hitter. He’s all the time been an ultra-aggressive swinger, however he makes contact much less and fewer typically; most gamers who’ve success swinging at one million out-of-zone pitches are literally fairly good at making contact with them, however he has declined to being below-average at that, too. His profile jogs my memory of an inflation demise spiral, as he has to hit the ball tougher and tougher but makes contact much less and fewer typically in opposition to worse pitches. Suffice it to say, I’m not on board with the ZiPS projection beneath, which I believe is loopy optimistic; I’d decide one thing across the twentieth percentile offensively. We’ll see if ZiPS will get the final giggle.

Christian Walker, Arizona Diamondbacks

Walker is an excellent defensive participant at first base, and I’m very glad that he gained a Gold Glove, one thing that will have been unlikely 30 years in the past when awards had been as a rule given to whoever gained it the yr earlier than. I’m much less satisfied that 36 homers is repeatable, and whereas zHR (inbuilt to to ZiPS) agrees very often with xSLG, it doesn’t right here, pegging him as the most important house run overperformer with 9. Wanting on the largest overperformers traditionally in zHR (the ten leaders for every of the final 5 years), 44 out of fifty noticed their house run whole decline the next yr by a mean of seven.1 homers. Walker’s glove will reduce the blow of any offensive decline, however I believe he’s clearly not a star [Word fixed -DS], only a good league-average first baseman coming off a peak yr.