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The St. Louis Cardinals have been one among baseball’s most disappointing groups in 2023. Favored to win the NL Central, they as a substitute completed with simply 71 wins and missed the playoffs for the primary time since 2018. Furthermore, the shedding report was wholly unfamiliar territory. Since John Mozeliak was appointed GM previous to the 2008 season (his title is now President of Baseball Operations), the Cardinals had had nothing however successful information beneath his watch. They reached the postseason in 10 of these seasons and twice superior to the World Sequence, capturing the franchise’s eleventh modern-era title in 2011.
To say that St. Louis has had sustained success beneath Mozeliak could be stating the apparent. Ditto that “The Cardinals Approach” — the catchphrase champions the membership’s adherence to fundamentals and its participant improvement acumen — has paid dividends on a constant foundation.
What does it imply when sustained success immediately hits a roadblock? Within the Cardinals’ present case, does it characterize an anomaly? Was 2023 merely a blip, or is there a necessity for Mozeliak’s group to alter its processes in any approach? I requested that query of the manager throughout final month’s GM conferences.
“I feel it could be considerably silly to simply strategy this previous yr as, ‘Oh, odds have it that you just’re going to lose, so it occurred,’” replied Mozeliak. “You may study from some issues that occurred final yr. I hope all people who’s concerned in that is having that reflection second and attempting to grasp what we might have completed otherwise, what we should always have completed otherwise, and what we’ll do otherwise going ahead.”
Requested if he might share specifics, Mozeliak mentioned that whereas some have been recognized, he most well-liked to not name any of them out, lest he “make anyone really feel dangerous.” He did say that he was prepared to name himself out. “Including extra pitching prior going into camp, would have, in hindsight, made extra sense” was the mea culpa he selected to share.
That space of want is already being addressed for 2024, as Kyle Gibson, Sonny Gray, and Lance Lynn have all been inked to free-agent contracts. Simply how a lot the trio meaningfully strikes the needle is an enormous query. Gibson and Grey are clearly upgrades — Lynn is 36 years previous and coming off a season the place he allowed 44 house runs whereas logging a 5.75 ERA and a 5.53 FIP, so the jury is out — however are they the kind of starters the Cardinals most want? By way of expertise and a capability to produce innings, the reply is seemingly sure. However, none of them are particularly prolific in terms of lacking bats. Of the 58 pitchers to work at the very least 150 frames final yr, Grey had the twenty eighth highest strikeout price, Lynn ranked thirtieth, and Gibson was close to the underside at 49.
That Miles Mikolas — who stays within the rotation — ranked 56th is notable, as is the now-retired Adam Wainwright’s having ranked lifeless final among the many 127 pitchers who threw at the very least 100 innings. All advised, Cardinals starters have been second-worst in strikeout price among the many 30 groups, trailed solely by the Colorado Rockies. Which brings us to a different challenge. Cardinals starters had a .325 BABIP-against, simply the very best of any group. A yr earlier that quantity was a middle-of-the-pack .294.
Why this occurred is one more query. Was having Willson Contreras and never Yadier Molina behind the plat the first issue? Or was it extra that St. Louis’s protection plummeted from fourth-best to Twentieth-best in DRS, and from third to 18th in Def? (Nolan Arenado’s going from 19 DRS in 2022 to only one in 2023 stands out like a sore thumb).
Will the additions of Gibson, Grey, and Lynn do something to ameliorate these points? Mozeliak did say that his group must get again to the basics they’ve been identified for, however to what extent have been fundamentals really a problem final yr? (I didn’t see wherever near sufficient Cardinals video games to supply a sound opinion). Both approach, was this a problem that may be solved by shuffling a couple of deck chairs and tweaking processes right here and there? The identical goes for different points that contributed to the surprising shedding season. Is there something really amiss with “The Cardinals Approach” that has labored so properly, or was 2023 largely what Mozeliak was unwilling to name it: a blip inside a profitable system?
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RANDOM HITTER-PITCHER MATCHUPS
Billy Herman went 39 for 100 in opposition to Dizzy Dean.
Babe Herman went 37 for 100 in opposition to Ray Kremer.
Sparky Adams went 35 for 100 in opposition to Eppa Rixey.
Pie Traynor went 33 for 100 in opposition to Pete Donohue.
Earl Averill went 31 for 100 in opposition to Lefty Stewart.
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The Cincinnati Reds had 16 gamers make their MLB debuts this previous yr, and whereas a few of them have been pitchers — Andrew Abbott, Connor Phillips, and Brandon Williamson are most notable — the largest impacts have been made by place gamers. Elly De La Cruz, Noelvi Marté, Matt McLain, and Christian Encarnacion-Strand all emerged as doubtless lineup mainstays for years to return. Ditto Spencer Steer, who debuted in 2022 and obtained down-ballot Rookie of the 12 months votes this season.With wunderkind De La Cruz now graduated from prospect standing, still-rookie-eligible Marté initiatives because the group’s new No. 1.
Cincinnati’s rotation clearly has potential, however on the identical time, Reds starters ranked fourth from the underside within the Nationwide League in pitcher WAR, in addition to second from the underside in ERA. Continued progress from Hunter Greene, Graham Ashcraft and the aforementioned trio of debuting children ought to assist, as will the return of Nick Lodolo from harm. These issues mentioned, what does the longer term portend in terms of arms on the farm? With that thoughts, I requested Cincinnati President of Baseball Operations Nick Krall how comfortable he’s together with his membership’s pitching pipeline.
“I feel we’ve made progress, however I additionally assume you may at all times use extra pitching,” Krall advised me throughout final month’s GM Conferences. “I like the blokes we now have. We drafted Rhett Lowder (seventh general) and Ty Floyd (thirty eighth general) one-two final yr. Chase Petty took some strides ahead. We’ve acquired guys like Julian Aguiar. A number of the guys who went from Triple-A to the massive leagues are persevering with to enhance. I feel we’re doing a great job.”
Aguilar, a 22-year-old right-hander whom the Reds took within the twelfth spherical of the 2021 draft, was a notable point out by Krall, partially as a result of he entered this previous season unranked and unheralded. At yr’s finish his stat line included a 2.95 ERA, a 3.22 FIP, and 138 strikeouts in 125 innings between Excessive-A Dayton and Double-A Chattanooga.
Petty, who was drafted twenty sixth general in 2021 by the Twins, was acquired by the Reds in March 2022 within the deal that despatched Sonny Grey to Minnesota. After lacking the primary month of the season whereas recovering from an elbow ailment, the 20-year-old right-hander put up a 1.72 ERA and a 2.32 FIP with 66 strikeouts in 68 innings between Dayton and Chattanooga.
Requested particularly about Lowder, Krall cited the 21-year-old right-hander’s “good really feel to pitch,” in addition to his number of plus pitches and competitiveness. Lowder’s numbers in his junior season at Wake Forest have been eye-opening. Augmenting a 15-0 won-lost report have been a 1.87 ERA and 143 strikeouts to go together with simply 24 walks in 120-and-a-third innings. Lowder will make his skilled debut in 2024, as will Floyd, a 22-year-old righty who pitched at LSU.
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A quiz:
Which participant holds the report for many one-base hits in a single season? (A touch: he additionally has the third-highest single-season singles complete.)
The reply may be discovered under.
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NEWS NOTES
The Pittsburgh Pirates have employed Sarah Gelles as an assistant GM. The Amherst School graduate joined the Pirates as a baseball operations intern in 2009 earlier than occurring to work for MLB’s Labor Relations division in 2010, the Baltimore Orioles from 2011-2018, and the Houston Astros for the final 5 years. Her most up-to-date place was Director, Analysis & Improvement.
The Astros have employed Deric Ladnier as their new Senior Director of Newbie Scouting. The 59-year-old former minor league infielder has beforehand served as scouting director for the Kansas Metropolis Royals and the Arizona Diamondbacks. I interviewed Ladnier for Baseball Prospectus in 2007 throughout his Royals tenure.
Brayan Peña would be the new minor league catching coordinator for the Detroit Tigers. The 41-year-old former big-league backstop has been managing within the Tigers system, most lately with the Excessive-A West Michigan Whitecaps.
The Tigers additionally introduced that Tim Federowicz, who had been serving as their main league catching coach, will take over as supervisor for his or her Triple-A affiliate, the Toledo Mud Hens.
Kris Atteberry would be the new radio play-by-voice of the Minnesota Twins, taking up for Cory Provus who’s transferring over to TV to exchange the recently-retired Dick Bremer. A 1996 graduate of Stanford College, Atteberry has been with the Twins Radio Community since 2007 serving as a pre- and postgame host and backup in-game broadcaster,
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The reply to the quiz is Ichiro Suzuki, with 225 singles in 2004. Wee Willie Keeler had 206 in 1898, whereas Suzuki’s 203 in 2007 is the third-highest single-season complete.
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The latest information that Ben Wagner received’t be returning because the radio play-by-play voice of the Toronto Blue Jays was surprising and head-scratching. Then once more, the choice to not carry again the gifted, 43-year-old broadcaster was made by Rogers Sportsnet, and head-scratching isn’t precisely anomalous for the deep-pocketed media firm. In recent times, Rogers, which additionally owns the Blue Jays, has had Wagner calling highway video games from a Toronto studio reasonably than on the ballpark the place the group was taking part in. That they’ve completed so is just not solely disrespectful to Wagner and the fanbase, additionally it is downright embarrassing.
“Embarrassing” is a phrase that Jerry Howarth, the legendary Blue Jays broadcaster whom Wagner changed upon his retirement previous to the 2018 season, used when sharing his opinion of the ouster with Rob Longley of The Toronto Solar. Howarth additionally used the phrase “injustice.” With the caveat that I’m not aware about something that may have been occurring behind the scenes — it’s at all times doable that Rogers had official causes — Howarth’s response appears spot-on. By all appearances, Wagner acquired a uncooked deal.
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The Detroit Tigers added 35-year-old right-hander Kenta Maeda to their beginning rotation this previous week, giving them a confirmed veteran to work alongside a quartet of much less established, but very promising, youthful hurlers. (My colleague Michael Baumann wrote about the free-agent signing right here). The projected foursome that Maeda will be part of includes Matt Manning, Casey Mize, Reese Olson, and Tarik Skubal, all of whom, assuming good well being, undertaking as stable big-league starters. Alex Faedo, Sawyer Gipson-Long, and Joey Wentz, who mixed to make 35 begins final yr, might additionally issue into the combination.
Which brings us to the pitcher with arguably the very best ceiling within the group. Drafted third general in 2021 out of an Oklahoma Metropolis highschool, Jackson Jobe possesses an influence arsenal that would propel him to the highest half of the Tigers rotation within the not-too-distant future. After seeing the beginning of his 2023 season delayed by a again ailment, the 21-year-old right-hander put up a 2.81 ERA with 84 strikeouts in 64 innings between three ranges, and he adopted that up with 4 spectacular outings within the Arizona Fall League. Jobe includes a mid-to-upper 90s fastball, a sweeping slider that spins round 3,000 RPMs, and a changeup that his AFL supervisor, Javier Colina, described to Lynn Henning of The Detroit Information as “the perfect I’ve seen (within the minor leagues) since Zack Greinke.”
I requested Tigers President of Baseball Operations Scott Harris about Jobe in the course of the GM Conferences.
“He has dominating stuff,” Harris advised me. “You noticed it throughout a number of ranges and within the Fall League this yr. Crucial factor for him is that he made an actual adjustment from [Low-A] Lakeland to [High-A] West Michigan. He began completely difficult hitters, realizing how good his stuff is and the way when he was throwing chase pitches he was usually doing hitters a favor. He began difficult them straight, touchdown all of his shapes within the zone repeatedly, and was ending at-bats rapidly, which allowed him to go deeper in video games. That’s going to be a really helpful talent when he will get to the massive leagues.”
Colina, who managed the Arizona Diamondbacks’ Double-A affiliate earlier than overseeing Jobe’s outings within the AFL, advised Henning that the teen is “going to be a No. 1 or No. 2 (starter) for the Tigers.” Furthermore, he predicted that Jobe could be known as as much as Detroit within the coming season. That appears unlikely provided that Jobe has simply 141-and-third-professional innings beneath his belt, and has made just one begin on the Double-A degree, nevertheless it’s at all times doable. There isn’t any questioning his uncooked stuff, and as evidenced by the 2 interviews he’s completed for FanGraphs — the latest one may be discovered here — he backs that up with an analytically-aided thirst to proceed to get higher. Jobes’s ceiling is certainly sky-high.
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FOREIGN AFFAIRS
NPB’s Tohoku Rakuten Eagles will reportedly launch Tomohiro Anraku after investigating allegations that the 27-year-old pitcher harassed and bullied youthful teammates. Veteran MLB and NPB hurler Masahiro Tanaka, who additionally performs for Rakuten, issued an apology on social media for not doing his half to stop the harassment and bullying.
Albert Almora Jr. is 15-for-72 with three doubles and a triple for the Puerto Rican Winter League’s Cangrejeros de Santurce. The 29-year-old outfielder’s final MLB motion got here with the Cincinnati Reds, who launched him in September 2022.
Sammy Hernandez is 10-for-32 and has a .436 OBP with the Puerto Rican Winter League’s Leones de Ponce. Acquired by the St. Louis Cardinals from the Toronto Blue Jays in alternate for Genesis Cabrera in July, the 19-year-old catcher performed within the Florida Advanced League and the Low-A Florida State League this yr.
Nehomar Ochoa Jr. is 8-for-23 and has a .414 OBP with the Australian Baseball League’s Perth Warmth. The 17-year-old outfielder performed in 12 video games for the Houston Astros Florida Advanced League entry after being drafted within the eleventh spherical out of Galena Park (TX) Excessive Faculty.
Hector Rodríguez is slashing .303/.330/.455 with one house run in 103 plate appearances for the Dominican Winter League’s Leones del Escogido. The 19-year-old outfielder within the Cincinnati Reds group had 16 house runs to go together with a .292/.343/.495 slash line between Low-A Daytona and Excessive-A Dayton.
Franmil Reyes is slashing .300/.361/.575 with a circuit-best eight house runs in 133 plate appearances for Leones del Escogido. The 28-year-old veteran of six big-league seasons was launched by the Washington Nationals in August.
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Which of Tony Gwynn and Robin Yount had the higher profession? I requested that query in a Twitter ballot earlier this week, and the result was a landslide win for the participant who collected much less WAR, in addition to fewer hits, doubles, triples, house runs, runs scored, and RBIs. That might be Gwynn, who garnered 76.2% of the votes forged, whereas Yount obtained simply 23.8%.
Gwynn had the far increased batting common of the 2 (.338 to .285) and he additionally captured eight batting titles whereas Yount received none. Gwynn additionally obtained 15 All-Star nods, whereas Yount (inexplicably) obtained solely three. The Milwaukee Brewers legend did win a pair of MVP awards, an honor by no means bestowed upon the San Diego Padres legend. Furthermore, as talked about above, he had the sting in six main counting stats, in addition to in WAR (66.5 to 65.0). Every performed 20 seasons, and neither received a World Sequence.
Given his batting titles and All-Star appearances, it’s simple to see why Gwynn received the ballot going away. In lots of respects, he did have the higher profession. On the identical time, it’s under no circumstances unreasonable to really feel that Yount’s was higher. Magnificence is within the eye of the beholder.
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LINKS YOU’LL LIKE
At Pittsburgh Baseball Now, John Perrotto wrote about the tenuous relationship between Ted Simmons and Jim Leyland in the course of the duo’s transient time collectively — Simmons as GM, Leyland as supervisor — with the Pirates within the early Nineties.
Effectively earlier than turning into President of Baseball Operations for the Tampa Bay Rays, Eric Neander spent faculty summers working at Sal’s Pizzeria in Cooperstown, New York. Marc Topkin has the story on the Nationwide Baseball Corridor of Fame and Museum’s web site.
The Athletic’s Eno Sarris told us about a dozen potential future stars in administration and training (subscription required).
At Twins Each day, Sherry Cerny wrote about Minnesota’s depth, and the way letting free-agent pitchers Kenta Maeda and Sonny Grey go was a part of the payroll plan.
Fish on First’s Louis Addeo-Weiss made a case for Chase Utley’s Cooperstown-worthiness.
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RANDOM FACTS AND STATS
Cito Gaston slashed .318/.364/.543 with 29 house runs and a 144 wRC+ for the San Diego Padres in 1970. It was a career-best yr by a large margin. A giant-league outfielder from 1967-1978, the two-time World Sequence-winning supervisor completed with 91 house runs, a 94 wRC+, and 0.8 WAR.
Brandon Phillips completed his 17-year big-league profession by going 3-for-24 with the Pink Sox in September 2018. The primary of his three Boston hits was a game-deciding ninth-inning two-out two-run homer off of Atlanta’s A.J. Minter in a 9-8 Pink Sox win.
Corridor of Fame right-hander Don Drysdale went 11-11 with a 3.33 ERA for the Montreal Royals in 1955. Tommy Lasorda, a left-handed pitcher earlier than turning into a Corridor of Fame supervisor, went 9-8 with a 3.27 ERA for the Triple-A membership that yr.
Ron Cey slashed .328/.400/.588 with 32 house runs for the Dodgers’ Triple-A affiliate in 1971. He returned to Albuquerque in 1972 and slashed .329/.455/.546 with 23 house runs.
The New York Mets signed Mike Hessman as a free agent on right this moment’s date in 2009. The correct-handed slugger proceeded to go 7-for-55 and hit the final of his 14 big-league house runs in 2010. All advised, Hessman homered 462 occasions over 20 skilled seasons, He hit 433 within the minors, 14 in Japan, and one in Venezuela.
The Detroit Tigers acquired John Wockenfuss from the St. Louis Cardinals in alternate for Lawrence Elliott on right this moment’s date in 1973. Wockenfuss made his MLB debut the next yr and went on to play 12 big-league seasons, all however the final two with the Tigers. Elliott by no means made it to the majors.
Gamers born on right this moment’s date embrace Larry Anderson, who appeared in 16 video games whereas pitching for the Milwaukee Brewers in 1974-1975 and for the Chicago White Sox in 1977. To not be confused with Larry Andersen, the longtime reliever as soon as traded for a younger Jeff Bagwell, Anderson threw a five-hit shutout in opposition to the Detroit Tigers in 1975 for one among his two big-league wins.
Additionally born on right this moment’s date was Hooks Iott, a left-hander who threw two innings for the St. Louis Browns in 1941, missed a number of seasons serving in WWII, then returned to pitch for each the Brown and the New York Giants in 1947. Per his B-Ref bio web page, Iott fanned 25 batters in a nine-inning recreation, and 30 batters in a 16-inning recreation, pitching for the Northeast Arkansas League’s Paragould Browns in 1941.
Dixie Walker performed for the Cotton State League’s Vicksburg Hill Billies in 1929 earlier than occurring to log 2,064 big-league hits, the majority of them with the Brooklyn Dodgers. His father, often known as Dixie Walker, performed for the Central League’s Zanesville Infants earlier than occurring to log 25 wins for the Washington Senators from 1909-1912.
Dixie Dean, probably the most well-known gamers in English soccer (soccer) historical past — his 383 targets with Everton FC from 1924-1938 are essentially the most any participant has scored for a single membership — additionally dabbled in baseball. The Toffees legend performed in England’s Nationwide Baseball Affiliation with Blundellsands and with the Liverpool Caledonians.
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