Showdown at the Shed: Previewing the 2024 Home Run Derby

For individuals who benefit from the loudest, easiest, most dopamine-drenched type of baseball, immediately is a big day. It’s Derby day, and even higher, the foolish hats usually are not obligatory. The MLB House Run Derby takes place at 8:00 p.m. ET at Globe Life Area in Arlington, Texas. What the Costco-coded ballpark lacks in aesthetics it makes up for in bulk. Based on Statcast’s park elements, Globe Life yields extra dwelling runs than the common park each for righties (120) and for lefties (110), so we ought to be in for a present. You may watch on ESPN, however in the event you’re a nerd – and also you’re studying FanGraphs proper now, so I’m certain you are able to do the maths on this one – you’ll in all probability choose the Statcast broadcast over on ESPN 2.

As in any 12 months, there’s a laundry checklist of Derby-worthy gamers who gained’t be collaborating, with Shohei Ohtani, Aaron Judge, and Elly De La Cruz on the prime. Nonetheless, this a strong sampling of swatters, and practically each participant figures to have a authentic shot at profitable. Both we’ll have a first-time winner or Pete Alonso will take dwelling his record-tying third title.

The sphere options three of the highest six dwelling run hitters in baseball this season — Gunnar Henderson, Marcell Ozuna, and José Ramírez — and two of the sport’s brightest younger shortstops: AL MVP candidates Henderson and Bobby Witt Jr.. It additionally contains three sluggers who take the Derby far more severely than your common participant — Alonso, Henderson, and Teoscar Hernández — and two others who’ve gained derbies at decrease ranges: Witt and Alec Bohm. Lastly, there’s Adolis García, an electrifying slugger whose historic energy show through the Rangers’ World Collection run final season is bound to maintain the group at full throat. Within the sections under, I’ll break down all the brand new guidelines and I’ll attempt to make a case for why every candidate has a shot on the crown.

Rule Adjustments

In recent times, the complete Derby has taken the type of a single-elimination event, with the eight individuals seeded primarily based on their common season dwelling run totals. This 12 months, the primary spherical can be broad open. All eight gamers will hit as many dwelling runs as they will, and the 4 gamers with the very best totals will advance right into a four-person bracket. They’ll be seeded primarily based on these totals, with the gap of their longest dwelling run serving as a tiebreaker.

On the one hand, this may probably make the competitors a bit bit extra honest. Final 12 months, Adley Rutschman hit 27 dwelling runs within the first spherical. That was the third-highest complete of the spherical, however he failed to maneuver on as a result of he had the unhealthy luck to be going through off towards Luis Robert Jr., who hit 28. However, this modification makes the Derby far more of an endurance contest. Swinging for the fences repeatedly is tiring work. In earlier years, in the event you had been batting second, all you wanted to do was homer as soon as greater than your opponent, after which you possibly can save your power for the later rounds. That possibility is now gone. Everybody must max out their first-round complete, so we must always in all probability anticipate some sweaty, sluggish sluggers by the point we get to the ultimate. Conditioning can be key.

In case your favourite factor in regards to the House Run Derby is the byzantine guidelines, you’re in for a deal with as a result of we’re simply getting began. This 12 months, the timing of every spherical stays the identical: Batters get three minutes within the first two rounds and two minutes within the last spherical, with one 45-second timeout per spherical. Nonetheless, you may recall that in earlier years, the system required the pitcher to attend till the final ball had landed earlier than pitching, not less than in idea. In follow, some pitchers flouted that rule, and in consequence, their hitters noticed far more pitches than did their opponents. With a view to curb that follow (which whereas undeniably unfair was additionally extraordinarily enjoyable), the principles now embody a most variety of pitches per spherical: 40 within the first two rounds and 27 within the last spherical, which works out to 4.5 seconds per pitch. In the event you run out of pitches, then the spherical is over, even when there’s nonetheless time on the clock. Consider, that’s a most variety of pitches, not swings. That would make the command of the pitcher, already an enormous issue, much more vital. In recent times, if batters didn’t like a pitch, they may take it and their pitcher would hearth one other one immediately. There wasn’t a lot of a time penalty, as a result of they didn’t have to attend for the earlier pitch to land. On this new format, if the pitcher misses their batter’s nitro zone, it makes rather a lot much less sense for the batter to take the pitch and look ahead to the following one, as a result of they solely get so many treasured balls.

The bonus system has additionally modified utterly. This 12 months, every participant concludes every spherical with an untimed bonus spherical through which they will hit till they report three outs. In the event that they hit a ball not less than 425 ft throughout the bonus, then they earn a fourth out. In different phrases, batters might get locked in and launch a bunch of homers in a row through the bonus and pile onto their totals for the spherical, and due to the additional out, those that hit one particularly lengthy blast through the bonus would have a fair larger benefit.

If there’s a tie within the head-to-head rounds after the bonus, then each gamers get a 60-second swing-off with no further bonuses or timeouts. In the event that they’re nonetheless tied after the swing-off, then they every get one other swing-off that consists of simply three swings. If it’s nonetheless tied after that, they do the entire three-swing enterprise once more till there’s a winner or till the solar swallows the earth, whichever occurs first.

OK, that’s it. These are the entire guidelines, I swear. Let’s transfer on to the individuals. Though the gamers are not seeded, we’ll nonetheless focus on them within the order of their dwelling run totals.

Gunnar Henderson

Henderson turned 23 on June 29, so he has the possibility to turn into the youngest champion in Derby historical past. As a second-year participant who gained’t be eligible for arbitration till 2026, the million-dollar prize for first place would greater than double his wage, and the $750,000 runner-up prize would very practically double it as properly. Based mostly on his efficiency this season, he additionally has a powerful case as the favourite. His 28 homers rank third in baseball behind Choose and Ohtani, and his 56.7% hard-hit price ranks fourth amongst certified gamers behind these two and Juan Soto. Henderson additionally leads the Derby individuals with a mean bat velocity of 75.8 mph (which can be good for ninth in all of baseball). Not that it’s notably related to the Derby, however Henderson is second within the majors with 6.1 WAR, only a hair behind Choose (6.3).

Henderson can be actually invested within the Derby. On Thursday, he held a legit practice session at Oriole Park, timed by teammate Colton Cowser and pitched by his Derby pitcher, Norfolk Tides supervisor Buck Britton. “I’ve hit his BP properly,” Henderson told reporters when requested why he selected Britton to pitch to him. “He throws good BP and it’s a fairly straightforward movement.” Nonetheless, Britton famous a possible subject with Henderson’s method. “Hopefully these balls simply recover from the wall,” mentioned Britton. “He hits the ball so arduous, however he hits it at actually low angles, so simply getting the ball within the air” can be key. Henderson is fourth in baseball with 112 blasts, however simply 31 of these blasts have come on fly balls, which sends him all the way down to twelfth place and third amongst Derby individuals, behind Ozuna (43) and Hernández (32). When Henderson does put the ball within the air, he’s golden. His 31.1% HR/FB price is the most effective in baseball. However earlier than you get too involved about Henderson’s launch angle, look no additional than the final two winners. Henderson’s 46.9% groundball price is decrease than the 48.2% price that Soto ran within the first half of 2022, the 12 months he gained the Derby, and the 49.8% price that reigning champ Vladimir Guerrero Jr. put up within the first half of final season.

Marcell Ozuna

There’s no getting round this: Ozuna was a horrible option to signify Main League Baseball in such a celebratory occasion. In 2021, he was arrested for a home violence incident, a part of which was captured on physique cam footage. The charges were dropped when Ozuna agreed to take part in a pretrial diversion program. He was additionally arrested for driving under the influence in 2022 and pleaded no contest in 2023. It’s not as if there’s any standards for the Derby that pressured MLB to place Ozuna entrance and heart; his All-Star choice serves as its personal acknowledgement of the very sturdy season he’s having. So inviting him to take part within the Derby, the league’s most fan-oriented and family-friendly night time of the 12 months, is an lively alternative, one which sends a really clear message in regards to the league’s values. Ozuna has hit 26 dwelling runs this season.

José Ramírez

Because the begin of the 2016 season, Ramírez has put up 46.5 WAR, fifth in baseball. However don’t let the truth that he’s one of many recreation’s biggest all-around gamers obscure his energy. Because the begin of the 2017 season, Ramírez has hit 220 dwelling runs, sixth most in baseball. Additionally, don’t sleep on Ramírez tonight simply primarily based on how he carried out in his first Derby look, in 2022, when he batted right-handed due to a significant thumb damage that utterly sapped his energy. This 12 months, he’s anticipated to bat left-handed, and the ability is again. This season he’s tied for sixth in baseball with 23 dwelling runs. Ramírez’s common homer this season travels 388 ft, the shortest distance among the many group, however that shouldn’t essentially be held towards him. It’s a results of his concentrate on pulling balls on the air, a wonderful recipe for achievement and one thing he does extra incessantly than every other participant. Likewise, though Ramírez has the bottom Ninetieth-percentile exit velocity of the group, at 103.9 mph, he can dial issues up when he needs to. His hardest-hit ball of the 12 months was 116.6 mph, which trails solely Witt among the many group and ranks twelfth in all of baseball.

The fascinating factor is that it’d really make extra sense for Ramírez to bat right-handed tonight, and never simply because righties have a neater time leaving the yard at Globe Life. Over the course of his profession, 69% of his homers have come from the left aspect, however that’s largely as a result of he faces far more righty pitchers than lefties, which means he bats left-handed much more incessantly than he does righty. His energy output on a price foundation is about the identical from either side; throughout his profession, he’s homered in 4.1% of his plate appearances when he bats left-handed in addition to when he hits righty, and all sides’s HR/FB ratio is almost similar, too. That mentioned, he positively has the potential for extra energy from the suitable aspect. His exit velocity, barrel price, and hard-hit price are decrease from the left aspect this season and over the course of his profession. With the introduction of bat monitoring information, I can let you know that this season, his bat velocity averages 74.2 mph from the suitable aspect, practically 4 mph sooner than his 70.3 mark from the left aspect. Based on Mike Petriello, who can be calling the Derby on ESPN 2 tonight, “on balls hit within the air, each 1 mph of bat velocity earns you roughly six extra ft of distance.” That’s a distinction of practically 24 ft.

Teoscar Hernández

Contemplating he has by no means completed a season with greater than 32 dwelling runs — in 2021, his solely 30-homer marketing campaign — Hernández could be straightforward to miss, however he’s a powerful darkish horse candidate. The 31-year-old has been one of many recreation’s most constant energy hitters ever since he grew to become a big-league common in 2018. If we ignore the 2020 season, when Hernández managed 16 homers in simply 50 video games, then he’s hit not less than 25 homers in every of the final 4 seasons, and not less than 20 in every of the final 5. He might not lead this 12 months’s eight individuals in anyone class, however since 2018, he’s by no means as soon as completed a season under the eightieth percentile in barrel price, common exit velocity, or max exit velocity.

Maybe much more vital than his credentials is the truth that Hernández actually needs to win. He brazenly campaigned to be included, and as soon as he was chosen, he sought advice from Guerrero Jr., a two-time Derby contestant who gained final 12 months’s event, and Ohtani, his Dodgers teammate who participated within the 2021 Derby. The 2 warned him in regards to the impact that fatigue can play, and Hernández has mentioned that he’ll concentrate on lifting the ball slightly than tiring himself out with max-effort hacks. “I feel I’ve a bit little bit of a bonus as a result of I swing rather a lot,” Hernández mentioned. “I take numerous swings on daily basis. My physique is used to going swing, swing, swing with out getting relaxation.”

Hernández has held two timed follow classes along with his Derby pitcher, Dodgers third base coach Dino Ebel, whose son Brady simply participated within the Excessive College House Run Derby this weekend. Anybody who’s watched the Derby frequently is aware of that the pitcher makes an enormous distinction, and in Ebel, Hernández might need one thing of a secret weapon. This can be his fourth Derby pitching look on the big-league degree, and he additionally pitched in two minor league derbies. He helped Vladimir Guerrero win the 2007 Derby, then pitched to Albert Pujols in 2015 and Joc Pederson in 2019.

Pete Alonso

Alonso has been in a funk these days; he has simply two dwelling runs this month, and over his final 12 video games, he’s batting .196 with no extra-base hits and a 41 wRC+. However don’t child your self: Alonso is a prolific dwelling run hitter. Because the begin of the 2019 season, when he was named NL Rookie of the 12 months after main the majors with 53 homers, Alonso has clobbered 211 dwelling runs, essentially the most in all of baseball. He’s performed in solely 4 full seasons, and he’s already certainly one of simply 48 gamers in major league history with not less than three seasons of 40 or extra homers. The 6-foot-3, 245-pound Polar Bear can be proficient at crushing Derby dingers. He gained back-to-back titles in 2019 and 2021 and has participated in each subsequent Derby. A 3rd victory would tie Ken Griffey Jr. for the report, although he’ll want to seem in three extra after this one if he needs to tie Junior’s report of eight appearances. Alonso has requested former Mets bench coach Dave Jauss, who pitched to him in 2021 and 2022, to come back again and pitch once more after final 12 months’s first-round exit.

This season, Alonso’s common exit velocity has fallen all the best way all the way down to the thirty fifth percentile, however he can nonetheless bash the ball when he will get maintain of it. His most exit velocity has by no means dropped under the 97th percentile, and his 75.1-mph bat velocity is second solely to Henderson amongst Derby individuals. Crucially, Alonso doesn’t must raise the ball to hit it out. This season, 9.4% of his line drives have left the ballpark. That ranks second amongst all gamers who’ve hit not less than 25 line drives, and it’s greater than twice the speed of six of his seven Derby rivals. Alonso additionally boasts the hardest-hit dwelling run of all eight individuals, a 115.3-mph blast on Could 16.

Adolis García

García is among the most enjoyable gamers in baseball, however he’s at the moment sitting on -0.1 WAR for the season. However even in a replacement-level 12 months, his energy numbers are nonetheless formidable. His hard-hit price, barrel price, common exit velocity, and Ninetieth-percentile exit velocity, whereas down from final 12 months, nonetheless rank within the 83th percentile or larger. Furthermore, García clearly nonetheless has top-level energy, as he hit the toughest ball of his whole profession, a scorching 116.1-mph line drive double, again in Could.

For a couple of causes, García needs to be a favourite. First, he’s obtained Derby expertise. Though he crashed out of final 12 months’s first spherical with 17 homers, the second-lowest complete of all eight individuals, he was pacing for an awesome spherical till he fell right into a funk and he hit simply two dwelling runs over the ultimate minute. The following issue can’t be overstated: García excels underneath the brilliant lights. He launched 39 dwelling runs final season, after which added eight extra within the playoffs, together with a five-game homer streak that stretched from the ALCS to the World Collection. In entrance of a house crowd that’s sure to be going loopy for him, García can be giving it his all, and his all is a complete lot. In the event you watched the Fall Basic, you understand that when García needs to hit one out of the ballpark, he’s obtained simply in regards to the fiercest dwelling run hack within the recreation. Irrespective of how he fares, García is bound to placed on a present.

Bobby Witt Jr.

This can be Bobby Witt Jr.’s first MLB House Run Derby, but it surely’s not precisely his first rodeo. In 2018, Witt gained the Excessive College House Run Derby at Nationals Park, out-dueling Rece Hinds – sure, the identical Rece Hinds who has achieved nothing however crush monster dwelling runs throughout his first week as an enormous leaguer – within the last spherical. In a contest just like the Derby, it is sensible to have a look at how gamers do after they’re served up pitches proper down the center, and each Witt’s 71.7% hard-hit price and 99.6-mph exit velocity on these meatballs lead the eight individuals by far.

Witt’s Statcast sliders are purple sufficient to make a vampire salivate, and he tops all individuals in barrels and Ninetieth-percentile exit velocity. This season, his common dwelling run has traveled 418 ft. Nobody else within the Derby has a mean above 410. Witt can be the one participant to hit a homer greater than 450 ft this season, and he did it twice. In brief, there’s nobody within the Derby who can hit the ball tougher than Witt.

Don’t let Witt’s placement this far down on the checklist idiot you. Though his 16 homers are the second-lowest complete amongst individuals, Statcast credit him with 21.2 anticipated homers, fourth most. That hole of 5.2 homers is the most important in baseball. Not solely is Witt the form of all-around athlete you shouldn’t wager towards in any form of abilities competitors, he’s additionally coming into the Derby with a full head of steam. Over the previous two weeks, he’s batting .409 with 4 homers and a 215 wRC+.

Alec Bohm

Bohm is the apparent underdog. With a 130 wRC+, the 27-year-old is having a breakout season. However at the same time as he’s added a tick of exit velocity and practically 4 share factors to his hard-hit price, he’s hardly a house run hitter. His 11 lengthy balls put him in a 16-way tie for the 89th-highest complete in baseball, and he’s the one Derby participant who is just not on tempo to achieve the 20-homer threshold. Bohm has hit only one ball lengthy sufficient to earn a bonus this season, a 427-foot shot on June 30. Nonetheless, earlier than you conclude that Bohm doesn’t have a snowball’s likelihood in Arlington to win this factor, understand that not one of the final three Derby winners was seeded higher than fourth.

Additionally, Bohm has won a derby before. In 2016, he gained the derby of the Coastal Plain League, a wood-bat collegiate summer time league. Scott Wingo, who coached Bohm’s Wilmington Sharks and pitched to him in that derby, will pitch to him once more tonight. It’s additionally doable that Bohm may gain advantage from the brand new guidelines. In a Derby the place taking a pitch comes with a better penalty, the flexibility to drive something you see might matter extra. Consistency has all the time been an underrated a part of success within the Derby, and no participant comes near squaring up the ball as usually as does Bohm. On a per-swing foundation, he ranks seventh amongst all certified gamers in hard-hit price, ninth in squared-up price, and eleventh in blast price. If he can get in a groove, he might have an opportunity.

Who’s Going to Win

In the event you’ve learn Jay Jaffe’s previews in earlier years, you understand that Jay closes with a prediction. Much more annoyingly for me, he’s very often proper. Jay predicted Bryce Harper’s 2018 win, Alonso’s in 2019, and Vladito’s simply final 12 months. I can’t promise Jay’s degree of accuracy, and I genuinely consider that the sphere is broad open, however my intestine tells me to go together with Bobby Witt Jr. I say that not simply because he’s able to placing on a present when he’s locked in, however as a result of he’s such a bodily marvel that even when he’s not locked in, he’s obtained sufficient energy to push him via. I now sit up for watching Witt flame out within the first spherical.