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We’re now within the Divisional Spherical of the 2024 NFL postseason, with eight groups remaining. In our NFL Divisional Spherical predictions, PFN’s Kyle Soppe and David Bearman give their finest bets for each sport this weekend.
Will Josh Allen get revenge over Patrick Mahomes? Can Lamar Jackson shake off the narratives about him within the postseason? Our analysts break all of it down with NFL betting picks for the Divisional Spherical.
NFL Divisional Spherical Predictions and Skilled Picks
All odds are from ESPN BET — join at present and use promo code PFN when registering to safe $150 in bonus bets!
Houston Texans vs. Baltimore Ravens Prediction
- Unfold
Ravens -9 - Moneyline
Texans +320, Ravens -400 - Complete
43.5
Soppe: The Ravens’ protection isn’t one to mess with; it’s actually that straightforward. They have been the top-scoring unit within the league this season and the very best amongst playoff groups on a per-play foundation. They’re a bottom-10 group in each blitz and stress fee, as a substitute preferring to take their medication within the brief move sport and dare opponents to kill them with 1,000 paper cuts.
This season, Baltimore has allowed opponents to submit a 40.3 passer ranking on deep passes. That’s not simply the bottom mark this season; it’s the third-best over the previous 9 seasons.
Nico Collins is a bonafide large play menace, however with Tank Dell and Noah Brown each on IR, the Ravens needs to be positioned to concentrate on stopping him from the splash play. In 2023, Collins has seven video games with a number of deep receptions and 9 with out…
- With (7 video games): 49 catches for 980 yards and seven TDs (140 yards/sport)
- With out (9 video games): 37 catches for 413 yards and a couple of TDs (45.9 yards/sport)
In these 9 video games with out a number of deep receptions, Collins hasn’t cleared 80 yards as soon as and has been held to 65 or much less even occasions. I really like the place this Texans group is headed long-term; that is only a tough matchup for an offense working at lower than full energy.
Decide: Nico Collins beneath 82.5 receiving yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Bearman: I couldn’t have been extra incorrect concerning the Texans final weekend as I assumed the Browns’ league-leading protection might cease a rookie quarterback, even one pretty much as good as C.J. Stroud.
Now, this younger Texans group will journey to face the top-seeded Ravens and their top-10 protection.
This can be a lot of factors to put, however the Ravens received by double digits in 9 of their 13 wins, together with in Week 1 over the Texans. Houston proved final week that they’re up for the playoff problem, and contemplating the Ravens’ lack of postseason success with Lamar Jackson, I wouldn’t be stunned in the event that they saved it shut.
The Ravens’ greatest enchancment this season has been on offense beneath Todd Monken. Excluding Week 18’s scrimmage, the Ravens scored no less than 20 factors in 11 straight video games to finish the season. For the season, they completed fourth in scoring at 28.4 PPG.
Not solely does Baltimore have a robust offense, however we noticed the Texans put up a ton of factors final week themselves. I anticipate factors on this one.
Decide: Over 43.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
Inexperienced Bay Packers vs. San Francisco 49ers Prediction
- Unfold
49ers -9 - Moneyline
Packers +360, 49ers -450 - Complete
50.5
Soppe: The 49ers are a giant favourite on this spot and a part of that’s how their passing sport matches up with the Packers. For the season, Inexperienced Bay creates stress on the sixth highest fee, a defensive model {that a} quick-striking San Francisco move sport might dismantle briefly order.
However wait, there’s extra. The Packers rank twenty fifth in opponent completion proportion when pressured and twenty fourth in opponent aDOT (common depth of goal) in these pressured spots. These developments level within the course of the Niners’ All-World RB.
Catch fee when Brock Purdy is pressured:
- Christian McCaffrey: 68.8%
- Brandon Aiyuk: 63.3%
- George Kittle: 57.7%
- Deebo Samuel: 52.0%
Targets per route when Purdy is pressured:
- Christian McCaffrey: 22.9%
- Brandon Aiyuk: 19.6%
- Deebo Samuel: 19.0%
- George Kittle: 16.0%
It’s not often a nasty concept to have a look at CMC with optimism and this particular matchup needs to be seen no in another way!
Decide: Christian McCaffrey over 4.5 receptions (+106 at FanDuel)
Bearman: I really like the Packers and what Love (see what I did there?) have executed this season, however with all due respect to the Cowboys, it is a step up in school for a really younger group.
MORE: NFL Playoff Bracket
The 49ers received by double digits in 11 of 12 wins throughout the common season (and the one which didn’t was a late discipline purpose by the Rams), so I’m not frightened about masking a giant quantity right here. They’re higher throughout the board, have extra expertise, and are well-rested. When wholesome, they’re onerous to beat.
Decide: 49ers -9 (-110 at ESPN BET)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Detroit Lions Prediction
- Unfold
Lions -6.5 - Moneyline
Buccaneers +250, Lions -300 - Complete
48.5
Soppe: The Buccaneers have gone 15 straight video games with out permitting a rush to achieve greater than 20 yards, the longest such streak for the reason that Chicago Bears ripped off 16 straight, bridging the 2000 and 2001 seasons, Brian Urlacher’s introduction to the NFL.
Each Baker Mayfield and Jared Goff are taking part in at an elite degree, however these run defenses have been as constant as something, which results in an early prop angle in the event you’re so inclined. Jahmyr Gibbs is within the 2024 fantasy football first-round discussion, however with a wholesome David Montgomery, the rookie averages simply 12.4 carries per sport when the Lions are favored.
If we’re to imagine that the splash run goes to be tough to return by, Gibbs is in a tricky spot to take advantage of restricted quantity — beneath 46.5 speeding yards in seven of eight video games this season when failing to notch a run of 20+ yards.
Decide: Jahmyr Gibbs beneath 46.5 speeding yards (-110 at DraftKings)
Bearman: I accurately picked the Rams to maintain it shut in opposition to the Lions final week, however I additionally assume they’re a significantly better group than the Buccaneers. Sure, they only blew out the Eagles, however who hasn’t during the last month of the season?
This is identical Bucs group that struggled to beat Carolina twice and wanted a rally in opposition to the Falcons to maintain their hopes alive. Whereas they’re scorching, winners of six of their final seven, so are the Lions, who will probably be taking part in at dwelling as soon as once more.
MORE: Updated Super Bowl 58 Odds
This matchup wasn’t shut in Tampa in Week 6, and I don’t assume this sport will probably be any totally different.
Decide: Lions -6.5 (-108 at DraftKings)
Kansas Metropolis Chiefs vs. Buffalo Payments Prediction
- Unfold
Payments -3 - Moneyline
Chiefs +135, Payments -155 - Complete
45.5
Soppe: For his profession, Mahomes is 8-1-1 in opposition to the unfold (ATS) as an underdog with over tickets cashing in seven of these 10 contests.
In these 10 video games, the Chiefs have cleared their group complete by no less than eight factors eight occasions. I’m conscious that #BillsMafia will level to their Week 6 assembly final season (the Payments coated as a 1.5-point street favourite and held the Chiefs 5.75 factors beneath expectation), however that has confirmed to be the exception, not the norm.
So what wins out? The potential of those confirmed offenses or the type of these defenses (each high 5 in factors allowed per sport since Week 13)?
Over the previous 20 playoff video games, with a projected complete north of 45 factors and a diffusion of not more than a discipline purpose (in both course), street groups are 12-7-1 ATS (11-1 outright in these 12 covers).
Decide: Chiefs ML (+135 at ESPN BET)
Bearman: After a season of doubting each groups, we’re proper again the place we thought we might be with a Chiefs vs. Payments playoff sport.
Kansas Metropolis may’ve received the earlier two playoff video games between them, however they have been each at dwelling. That is Patrick Mahomes’ first street playoff sport, and Orchard Park will surely not be his first alternative.
The Payments are taking part in higher than anybody proper now, particularly the Chiefs, regardless of their win over a defeated Dolphins group within the Wild Card spherical. Towards the Payments, they received’t win settling for discipline targets like they did final weekend.
Very similar to the earlier conferences between these two groups, I anticipate this to be one other shut contest, however with Buffalo heading to their first AFC Championship Recreation since dropping to the Chiefs within the 2021 postseason.
Decide: Payments -2.5 (-120 at DraftKings)
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