Should We Believe in the Pittsburgh Pirates?

Any time one thing loopy occurs early within the season, such because the week that Adam Duvall was main the league in WAR, I are inclined to dismiss it with a single phrase reply of “April.” However the calendar has now flipped, and the shower-month has grow to be the flower-month, so it’s getting a bit tougher to disregard the Pirates, standing on the high of the NL Central with a 20–9 document, a whopping 10 video games above final season’s victor, the at present last-place Cardinals. Practically 20% of the season is now achieved, and it’s most likely time to speak about whether or not Pittsburgh is for actual.

First off, going 20–9 is at all times a formidable run. Groups that do this aren’t at all times nice groups, however they’re normally not less than middling and solely hardly ever really dangerous. There have been precisely 1.21 craploads of 20–9 or higher runs over the past 20 years, and solely two with a run that stable, the 2021 Cubs and 2005 Orioles, completed with 75 wins or fewer. And whereas the Pirates had greater than their share of basement-dwelling opponents (the typical opponent has a .430 successful proportion), nice performances in baseball are usually in environments which are most conducive to these performances. The Yankees had the perfect 29-game run final 12 months, at 24–5, with 21 of these 29 video games coming towards non-playoff groups.

Suffice it to say that the projection methods have been usually not optimistic on the concept of the Pirates being contenders in 2023. Our preseason depth charts gave them a 3% likelihood to win the division and a 6.5% likelihood of constructing the playoffs. ZiPS, which preferred the Cardinals higher than the mixed projections (a prognostication that’s not wanting nice proper now), was much more down on Pittsburgh, with solely a 0.7% shot on the NL Central and 1.8% for a postseason. These weren’t hopeless numbers, however they actually left the Pirates as a longshot. However as of the morning of Might 2, our projections now have the Pirates at 18.5% to win the division and 32.3% to make the playoffs. And the up to date ZiPS projections for 2023 recommend a chaotic division if everybody’s someplace round their median projection. Whenever you have in mind Pittsburgh’s sizzling begin, the Cubs enjoying very properly, St. Louis’ bleak April, and Milwaukee’s pitching accidents, ZiPS sees the NL Central as huge open:

The excellent news for Pirates followers is that the assumptions wanted to get right here are usually not significantly aggressive. Neither ZiPS nor our Depth Charts mixed projections have determined that Pittsburgh is a superb crew, or perhaps a good one. In actual fact, each methodologies nonetheless see them ending beneath .500 — Depth Charts as a .467 crew, ZiPS as a .490 crew.

In different phrases, whilst a mediocre crew, the Pirates are a menace to take the NL Central. Plundering the NL Central isn’t like taking up the Spanish treasure fleet or defeating the garrison at San Juan or Santo Domingo. These Pirates don’t have a large galleon or perhaps a Dutch merchantman, however their sloop is sufficient to seize some pinnaces, loot Eleuthera, and get the map to rescue their kidnapped sister. A .500 crew with the Pirates lead can do that, and I promise I’ll cease the nostalgia for Sid Meier’s Pirates!, which I performed a few billion hours of once I was in center faculty.

Let’s dig into the ZiPS projections for the Pirates first. A 79–83 crew isn’t essentially the most thrilling one, however it may be sufficient at this level. Even a 79-win crew can be a big improve on what practically everybody, together with Pirates followers, considered them coming into the season. And at this level, ZiPS solely sees a 2% likelihood they end with fewer than 70 wins!

You possibly can see actual progress whenever you take a look at the projections. Jack Suwinski isn’t actually a 164 wRC+ man once we discuss the long run, however he’s proven sufficient energy (StatCast hard-hit proportion over 50%) that he may be a 115–120 hitter who may hit 30 homers in a season and plausibly deal with middle discipline. Equally, Connor Joe has proven spectacular pop this 12 months, backed up by his Statcast knowledge — each MLB’s xSLG and ZiPS’ zSLG are round .500 — sufficient that there’s a great likelihood he’s not less than a league-average participant at this level. Add in Bryan Reynolds, who we already know is nice, and Ke’Bryan Hayes, who is healthier than his weak begin, and whereas ZiPS (and doubtless everyone else on the planet) doesn’t anticipate the Pirates to proceed to steer the league in runs scored, you see an actual basis for them to have not less than an honest offense.

There’s much more purpose to be hopeful with the pitching. Roansy Contreras was on my pitcher breakout piece for 2023, and Mitch Keller was nearly there, so it doesn’t shock me to see them pitching properly. Rich Hill will proceed to eat innings successfully. However the largest shock could also be Vince Velasquez, who seems lots like he did in his first couple of seasons within the majors, when he was a extremely attention-grabbing prospect.

I’m not but on the level the place I’m a believer in Velasquez, however sufficient has occurred that I’m not less than studying the pamphlet at lunch. Whereas he hasn’t added a flowery new pitch or discovered a Charlie Morton-esque hidden cache of fastball velocity, he’s pitching in another way than he has in previous seasons. Like Kevin Gausman a couple of years in the past, he’s simplified his repertoire, jettisoning his sporadically efficient knuckle-curve and, as an alternative of including a special pitch, relying closely on his slider. Up to now, Velasquez leaned on that curve towards left-handed batters, as his changeup is distinctively within the “meh” class. When utilizing the slider towards lefties, he normally tried to string it over their decrease inside nook, comparable location to when he was throwing it towards a righty. Ethan Witte over on the Good Phight really steered he keelhaul certainly one of his pitches in favor of the slider years ago.

That is an 84 [mph] slider that Goldschmidt is means out in entrance of, which is essential to Velasquez if he desires to begin to use the pitch extra. The explanation pertains to sequencing and tunneling. Velasquez began this plate look with a 94 m.p.h. fastball in roughly the identical space. He adopted it up with this slider, the results of which you see above. In keeping with Baseball Prospectus, Velasquez has adopted up a fastball with a slider 21 occasions this season to a proper handed batter. When he throws it, there’s a mean of 1.41 inches of distance between the 2 pitches on the tunnel level, a quantity that’s on par with pitchers like Chris Archer (1.39 in), Gerrit Cole (1.42 in) and Max Scherzer (1.45 in). Put one other means, his slider seems nearly the identical as these pitchers on the similar tunnel level, pitchers proper now with a few of the finest sliders within the sport. Whereas Velasquez’s slider is 2-3 m.p.h. slower than theirs, coming on the hitter, it resembles a fastball till late within the at bat, which is ensuing within the groundballs. It’s a pitch he wants to begin trusting extra typically.

Simply as Gausman has began utilizing his splitter as a pseudo-breaking pitch towards lefties, Velasquez is utilizing his slider towards lefties this 12 months as principally an alternate changeup, searching for to position it low or outdoors fairly than attempting — normally unsuccessfully — to nick the within nook. Right here’s his map towards lefties this 12 months:

Coming into the season, lefties had a profession .321 batting common and a .524 slugging proportion towards his sliders. This 12 months, lefties are 2-for-25 with a homer towards Velasquez after they efficiently put the ball in play. Not dangerous in any respect; he’s already thrown extra sliders towards lefties than all however one season of his profession. General, 34% of his pitches towards left-handed hitters in 2023 are sliders. Is that sufficient to say we should always consider him as a great quantity two or three starter now? In all probability not, however the truth that he’s getting success with a modified strategy ought to not less than be checked out. A Vince Velasquez avoiding the gopher ball is an intriguing pitcher.

Are the Pirates a great crew? In all probability not. However they’re a harmful crew, and if the Cardinals and Brewers merely look ahead to Pittsburgh to show right into a pumpkin, they could have some surprising break day in October.