Should the Phillies Actually Get Rid of Rhys Hoskins?

“Mike from Shamong you’re on 94.1 WIP.”

“Hey, Joe, first time very long time, thanks for having me on.”

“I hear you wish to discuss some Phillies. What’s in your thoughts, brother?”

“Joe, the Phils gotta do away with Rhys Hoskins. I do know he’s been round some time and folks say he’s a pleasant man however I simply can’t stand to look at him anymore. He struck out 10 occasions within the World Collection, he drops each third ball that involves him, he’s the explanation we misplaced!”

“Properly Mike, many of the Phillies lineup went lacking on the finish of the Wo—”

“I HATE HIS STINKING GUTS JOE! I CAN’T STAND TO LOOK AT HIM!”

“So that you wish to commerce him, then?”

“I do, Joe. Hoskins solely has one 12 months left earlier than free company, and we are able to’t lose him for nothing. Look, Nola was fairly dangerous within the World Collection too. Possibly we are able to commerce Hoskins for a no. 2 starter? How about that child from San Diego, Musgraves? Yeah, Hoskins to the Padres for Musgraves and a first-round decide. What do you consider that? I’ll take my reply off the air.”

Clearly this alternate didn’t actually occur. Really, you understand what? Having not listened to each minute of Philadelphia’s two sports activities discuss radio stations the previous two weeks, I can’t make that assure. However suffice it to say, the Phillies’ Cinderella run to the World Collection raised expectations to the purpose the place lots of people are disillusioned they couldn’t shut the Astros out, and Hoskins is taking numerous the blame.

The native discourse round Hoskins has all the time been a little bit bizarre. Because the Phillies’ longest-tenured place participant, he’s been round lengthy sufficient to endure from what I name Bobby Abreu Syndrome: When the Phillies stink, the perfect participant will get blamed as a result of he’s the one title folks know. And Hoskins was so good as a rookie — 18 residence runs and a .396 OBP in 50 video games, principally a 3rd of a greater model of the Pete Alonso rookie 12 months — he set the bar too excessive for himself. Prior to now 5 years, Hoskins has been an average-to-slightly above-average first baseman reasonably than a famous person. The failings in his sport — a streaky bat, a excessive strikeout fee, and a extremely unreliable glove — are apparent and irritating, even when the nice largely outweighs the dangerous.

Typically, I’m of the opinion that folks ought to chop Hoskins a little bit slack. Nevertheless it’s exhausting to take a look at his postseason efficiency — his six residence runs didn’t fairly disguise the truth that he produced simply 5 different hits and 4 walks towards 24 strikeouts, or a handful of pricey misplays within the area — and never no less than surprise about what shifting on from him would appear like.

To start with, if Hoskins does get traded, he’s not bringing again a participant who’d markedly enhance the group elsewhere. First basemen with one 12 months left till free company don’t get traded a lot in any respect, as a result of if all you want is a dude with huge energy who can put on the massive glove, that sort of participant could be had in free company. And any group that’ll want Hoskins in 2023 most likely wouldn’t be too eager on giving up a serious league contributor anyway.

One of the best-case state of affairs in a Hoskins commerce might be one thing like what the Cubs acquired for Anthony Rizzo: Kevin Alcantara, an outfield prospect who blew up across the time of the commerce, and an OK pitching prospect in Alexander Vizcaíno. When the Nationals traded Kyle Schwarber to Boston across the similar time, in addition they acquired a pitching prospect who become a back-end-of-the-organization sort. The 2022 deadline presents little additional elucidation; insofar as any Hoskins-type gamers moved in any respect, two of them (Josh Bell and Luke Voit) acquired swapped for one another within the Juan Soto deal, and Trey Mancini went from Baltimore to Houston in a three-teamer. That makes it troublesome to compute every participant’s discrete worth.

If the Phillies wish to change Hoskins, they may accomplish that internally by shifting one other nook man — more than likely Schwarber or Alec Bohm — to first. (Darick Hall, the affable rookie with huge energy, shouldn’t be the sort of participant you’d plug in to interchange an incumbent who misplaced his job due to strikeouts and dangerous protection.) I’m not satisfied Bohm can be a defensive improve, however it could open the door to bringing again Jean Segura, whose possibility was declined earlier this week, along with shelling out for one of many big-name free-agent shortstops.

However a commerce would require the Phillies to shell out simply as many prospects as they’d obtain in a hypothetical Hoskins deal — extra, if they need an precise improve. So let’s see who’s on the market in free company. The very first thing you must know: There is no such thing as a Freddie Freeman on this 12 months’s class. Let’s go away apart for the second the enjoyable and bizarre prospects, like signing Justin Turner or Japanese batting champion (and the Craig Pelton to Bryce Harper’s Jeff Winger) Masataka Yoshida to play first.

Right here’s how Hoskins stacks up towards the primary basemen on our Top 50 Free Agents rankings, together with their Steamer-projected WAR and wRC+, in addition to projected wage for 2023, by way of Matt Swartz of MLB Trade Rumors for Hoskins’ arbitration award, and Ben Clemens’s prediction for the varied free brokers.

Meh? If all issues have been equal, I may see eager to improve to Rizzo, who’s been outhit by Hoskins in 4 of Hoskins’ six years within the majors however is a far superior defensive first baseman. That stated, he not solely turned down his $16 million participant possibility for 2023, however he’s additionally going to be tagged with a qualifying provide. If he turns that down, it could signify a perception that he can get upwards of $20 million per 12 months, possible on a multi-year dedication. If the Phillies paid that worth along with shedding a draft decide, that may give them 4 nook guys of their 30s on multi-year contracts price (roughly, let’s spherical Schwarber’s $19.75 million AAV up) $20 million a 12 months or extra. I’d simply as quickly journey out yet one more 12 months with Hoskins and kick the can down the street. Bell, too, can be attractive, notably if he could possibly be had for cheaper. However he additionally had a tough postseason and would signify a calculated threat reasonably than a transparent improve.

In case you couldn’t already see Betteridge’s Law of Headlines rising nearer and nearer on the horizon, right here’s the case for why it could make sense to maintain Hoskins. To start with, he’s cheaper than any plainly superior first baseman available on the market, which might give the Phillies extra monetary assets with which to pursue an improve within the rotation, a star shortstop, or each. Second, as soon as Harper regains his means to throw after offseason surgical procedure, most likely in late April or early Might, the DH spot can be open. Even when Hoskins solely DHs part-time, that’d reduce the damaging influence of his glove.

Third, the issue with Hoskins wasn’t that he took a golden sombrero in Sport 6 of the World Collection; it’s that he took a golden sombrero in Sport 6 of the World Collection out of the two-hole, which created a discontinuity between Schwarber and Harper, Philadelphia’s two most harmful hitters. Whether or not Rob Thomson ought to’ve shuffled up the order is a distinct argument; there actually wasn’t an apparent higher possibility. The Phillies may change that by upgrading at shortstop, and even by getting something out of Nick Castellanos, who can’t probably be as dangerous subsequent 12 months as he was in 2023.

There are regarding tendencies in Hoskins’ offensive efficiency, to make certain. He simply posted the bottom ISO and OBP of his profession, and the very good 15%-plus stroll fee that made him so harmful early in his profession has dropped into the ten% vary the previous two seasons. However these shortcomings can be simpler to climate if he’s hitting decrease within the lineup.

Hoskins is way from an ideal participant, and the Phillies ought to no less than discover different first base choices when he hits free company in a 12 months’s time. However he’s a lot adequate to begin on a group with World Collection ambitions.