Shohei Ohtani, the AL Awards Races, and Unicorns

Whereas Dylan Cease was chasing a no-hitter and Aaron Judge was homering in three straight video games, Shohei Ohtani enhanced his personal circumstances for the AL Cy Younger and MVP awards. On Saturday, he threw eight innings of one-run ball in opposition to the Astros in a sport that the Angels received in 12 innings, persevering with his dominance of the AL West leaders. On Monday, he homered twice and drove in three runs in a ten–0 rout of Detroit, working his totals to 5 homers, 10 RBIs, and a .414/.469/1.000 line in a seven-game span in opposition to the Blue Jays, Yankees, Astros, and Tigers (oh my!). A lot to Tungsten Arm O’Doyle’s chagrin, the Angels even went 5–2 in these video games.

A yr after profitable the AL MVP award for his unprecedented wire-to-wire excellence each as a pitcher and a delegated hitter, Ohtani has continued to thrive in each contexts. However the place he didn’t get any consideration when it got here to the 2021 Cy Younger race, this season, he’s pitched his approach into the image.

Saturday’s begin was Ohtani’s twenty third of the season, matching final yr’s whole, and he’s now at 136 innings, topping the 130.1 he threw in ’21. His three true end result peripherals have improved markedly, to the purpose that he’s shaved almost a full run off his FIP relative to final season:

At this writing, with 136 innings within the Angels’ 136 video games, Ohtani is formally certified for the ERA title, although that received’t be the case after Wednesday night time, at the least till his quantity comes up once more. In any occasion, it’s value stating that he has the AL’s highest strikeout price and is one-tenth of a share level behind Shane McClanahan for the Okay-BB% lead. In the meantime, he additionally has the league’s second-lowest FIP, behind solely Kevin Gausman’s 2.13.

Notice that Ohtani’s FIP and ERA are each a lot better than final yr regardless of his BABIP growing by almost 30 factors. He’s absorbed that by doing a greater job of limiting arduous contact:

Underlying these advances, Ohtani is throwing tougher — a few of his choices have gained greater than three miles per hour — and emphasizing his slider extra, notably in opposition to righties, who haven’t hit him as nicely this yr:

Batters are having a harder time with most of his pitches (apart from the cutter) relative to final yr; observe the 117-point SLG drop for his fastball, and the 28-point drop in wOBA for his slider, for instance. His splitter is getting hit tougher however continues to be almost not possible to take care of. He even added a sinker in August, possibly as a response to seeing Clay Holmes‘ 100-mph sinker as a hitter. Good luck coping with that, hitters:

Shohei Ohtani, 100mph 4 Seam Fastball and 100mph Sinker, Overlay. pic.twitter.com/YhzusD8cP6

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) September 4, 2022

As for the slider, by Statcast’s measure, at -22 runs it’s tied with Justin Verlander’s fastball because the second-most worthwhile pitch within the majors this yr, behind Stop’s slider (-34 runs). Final yr, Ohtani’s splitter (-13 runs) and slider (-11 runs) each reached double digits, however the former has solely been value -2 runs this yr; he’s offset that together with his improved fastball (from -1 to -5 runs, and sure, it’s awkward to speak about decrease adverse numbers as superlative).

As I famous when writing about Cease on Tuesday, the AL Cy Younger race mainly comes right down to 4 pitchers: Verlander, Stop, Ohtani, and McClanahan. Verlander and McClanahan are each on the injured checklist proper now, the previous with a right calf injury (“fascial disruption, however no muscle fiber disruption”), the latter with a left shoulder impingement. Each are anticipated again later this month, although how a lot later might very nicely have some bearing on who brings house the {hardware}. Right here’s how the 4 stack up:

Verlander leads the AL in ERA, McClanahan in xERA, Ohtani in strikeout price, Stop in bWAR. Gausman leads in FIP (2.17) and WAR (5.2), however his 3.12 ERA and three.44 xERA, to those eyes, make him much less more likely to get severe traction in opposition to this competitors.

Ohtani is at an obstacle, innings-wise, however his worth is correct there with the remainder of them; it’s McClanahan whose worth by each flavors of WAR is nicely behind the group, and if he’s not pitching, he’s not going to realize floor. I wrote on Tuesday that I’m not prepared to separate hairs concerning these guys earlier than they get a number of extra begins within the stretch run that would produce extra separation. I nonetheless regard Verlander because the frontrunner as a result of the unprecedented nature of his comeback from Tommy John surgical procedure age 37, his lead in two conventional triple crown classes (together with his 16 wins), and the attract of anointing him a three-time Cy Younger winner. However his damage throws the door open, and if none of those guys is getting anyplace close to 200 innings, then I actually don’t see something that guidelines Ohtani out of the image.

On the offensive aspect, Ohtani is hitting .267/.358/.533 and ranks second within the AL in homers (32), third in slugging share, and fourth in wRC+ (146). He’s not hitting fairly in addition to final season, when he batted .257/.372/.592 and completed second in slugging share and third in homers (46), but it surely’s at the least value noting the much less hospitable situations for hitters; his 150 wRC+ from final yr, which positioned second within the league, was solely 4 factors larger.

In each seasons he’s hit the ball extremely arduous however hasn’t fairly gotten all of his cash’s value:

Final yr, Ohtani’s hard-hit price, common exit velocity, and xwOBA have been all within the 97th percentile, and his barrel price was tops within the majors. This yr, he’s within the ninety fifth to 98th percentile in all however hard-hit price, the place he’s simply within the 87th percentile.

Sadly for Ohtani, his greatest impediment for the MVP award is the man who’s pulverizing the ball harder than anybody on the planet: Choose. The 30-year-old outfielder is hitting .302/.403/.682 with AL highs in OBP, SLG, homers (54) and wRC+ (202). A run at Barry Bonds’ single-season report of 73 homers might be out of the query at this level, however Roger Maris’ group and AL report of 61 is in sight. I don’t suppose it’s important to bounce by way of the hoops of PED-free “legitimacy” to see the worth in attending to 62, notably when the brawny slugger has accomplished what he’s accomplished within the context of betting tens of millions of dollars in future earnings on his personal efficiency. He’s additionally continued to mash whereas the remainder of the Yankees’ offense has gone on vacation. The group is 17–26 within the second half, hitting for a 95 wRC+, however Choose has hit .342/.484/.829 with 21 homers in 188 PA for a 261 wRC+. If that’s not the best contract drive in historical past, then I don’t know what’s.

By advantage of his protection — he’s splitting his time between heart discipline (64 begins) and proper (44 begins) in addition to DH (19 begins) — Choose has totaled 8.9 WAR, 3.2 greater than every other place participant, and greater than double Ohtani’s WAR as a DH (3.4). However the MVP race isn’t about whether or not Ohtani has outhit Choose. It’s about whether or not his distinctive mixture of performances as a DH and as a pitcher is extra worthwhile, the place the notion of worth is deliberately murky. (“There is no such thing as a clear-cut definition of what Most Helpful means,” reads the directions to voters. “It’s as much as the person voter to resolve who was the Most Helpful Participant in every league to his group.”) By way of our straight up add-the-WARs totals, the reply is that Choose has a few one-win benefit, 8.9 to 7.8. By Baseball Reference’s measure, which makes use of totally different defensive and pitching inputs in addition to totally different positional changes, Choose’s edge is simply 8.4 to 7.9 (4.8 pitching WAR, 3.1 place participant WAR).

All of that is with out touching the worth of the roster spot that Ohtani’s two-way prowess saves the Angels. In the event you imagine Baseball Prospectus’ Russell Carleton, who has thought more deeply and more coherently about this matter than you or I’ve, the mixture has in all probability gained the Angels some fraction of a win. On the identical time, as Carleton factors out, the Ohtani case has demonstrated the constraints of the fashions we use for WAR, which weren’t designed to seize the flexibleness he affords them, an announcement that to a lesser diploma applies to the Zobristian multiposition stars.

Whereas conceding that the numbers in all probability nonetheless favor Choose, and that with greater than three weeks to go there’s nonetheless time for every participant to make a closing assertion that would swing the race, I believe this one comes right down to intangibles. How a lot (if in any respect) do you reward Choose for doing what he’s doing within the context of a playoff race the place half of the lineup round him is perhaps posted on the aspect of a milk carton, and within the glare of the Massive Apple highlight, whereas being requested questions on his subsequent contract? How a lot do you reward Ohtani for proving that final yr was no fluke, that it’s really potential {that a} participant can excel on the mound and on the plate and maintain enhancing? Or for protecting a group in a chronic tailspin within the “must-watch” class if solely to see what he’s doing?

All of it comes right down to which unicorn you like, and I don’t suppose there are any incorrect solutions until we take the 2 gamers’ presences and performances without any consideration. These guys are each miracles, and we’re fortunate we get to observe them.