Seth Lugo’s Kitchen Sink Approach Has Worked Brilliantly

On Tuesday evening, whereas a lot of the nation tuned in to see Kamala Harris debate Donald Trump, I watched an much more lopsided efficiency from the higher deck at Yankee Stadium, the place the Royals’ Seth Lugo completely dominated the Yankees, holding them to only three hits, strolling none and placing out 10 over seven innings in a 5-0 Kansas Metropolis win. By six innings, the one Yankee to succeed in base was Gleyber Torres, who blooped tender singles into middle discipline on Lugo’s fifth pitch of the sport after which, roughly an hour and 20 minutes later, on his 86th pitch; in between, Lugo retired 17 straight hitters. It was the most recent in a season filled with nice outings from the righty, who at 34 years outdated is having a profession yr whereas pushing the Royals towards their first postseason berth since 2015.

Lugo’s seven scoreless frames ran his whole to a serious league-leading 193 innings whereas decreasing his ERA to 2.94, second within the AL behind solely Tarik Skubal. In the meantime, he’s third in WAR with 4.4, 0.2 behind teammate Cole Ragans, fifth in FIP (3.27), seventh in stroll price (5.8%), and eighth in strikeouts (169) regardless of punching out hitters at a modest 21.7% price. He’s additionally tied with Skubal for the league lead in wins (16), and so by our Cy Young Projection model and its a number of variants, his suite of stats places him second within the AL to Skubal and a snug margin forward of Ragans, Logan Gilbert, and Framber Valdez. All of that is taking place within the first yr of a three-year, $45 million contract he signed with the Royals final December, and in simply his third season as a starter after largely being typecast as a workhorse reliever throughout his seven seasons with the Mets (2016–22).

Knocking again a few beers from my partial season ticket group’s traditional perch in Part 422 affords a distinct perspective than within the press field or at house. So when Sports activities Reference’s Katie Sharp noted that the sport was the primary time the Yankees had ever been held to zero walks and nil extra-base hits whereas placing out no less than 14 instances, I made a decision to take a better take a look at Lugo’s evening to realize a fuller appreciation of what’s made him so profitable recently.

The Yankees offense has had its points, however the workforce nonetheless leads the AL in scoring (5.03 runs per sport) and leads the majors in wRC+ (116). The highest two hitters in baseball by wRC+, Aaron Judge (211 wRC+) and Juan Soto (180 wRC+), are driving that, however they’ve had a stronger supporting forged round them since buying Jazz Chisholm Jr. from the Marlins. Chisholm entered Tuesday having produced a 161 wRC+ since debuting with the Yankees on July 28, with Torres (111 wRC+) working to atone for his dreadful first half, and Austin Wells (132 wRC+) and Giancarlo Stanton (104 wRC+) offering extra assist. Tuesday evening’s lineup even featured freshly recalled rookie Jasson Domínguez in left discipline instead of the long-slumping Alex Verdugo.

With a four-seam fastball that topped out at 94.9 mph and averaged 92.5, Lugo didn’t overpower the Yankees a lot as he stored them off steadiness with an distinctive command of his dizzying array of choices. In line with Statcast, he used 9 totally different pitches whereas checking the containers of a classic Greg Maddux. Work rapidly? His tempo of 15.7 seconds between pitches was six-tenths of a second under his majors-leading common of 16.3 seconds. Change speeds? He landed at least one pitch in each 1-mph bucket between 74 and 95 mph save for the 83- and 84-mph ones, which no less than provides him one thing to work on subsequent time. Transfer the batter’s eye stage? Use each side of the plate? Examine and verify.

“It was simply onerous for everybody to get a bead on him,” said Yankees supervisor Aaron Boone afterward. “He’s not making errors. It’s onerous to actually search for one pitch as a result of he’s throwing the kitchen sink at you, and he’s altering speeds on you, and he’s bought a lead, and he is aware of find out how to assault with that. He beat us tonight.”

Lugo confronted 24 batters, a dozen of whom opened their plate appearances by taking known as strikes. Word the spray and the array of pitches:

From among the many righties, the very best and lowest strikes there, each on four-seamers, had been in opposition to Stanton. The cutter and excessive slurve had been each in opposition to Torres, the latter shortly earlier than his second hit, whereas the outermost four-seamer — which was nonetheless on the border of Gameday zone 5, which is to say middle-middle — was the primary pitch he threw to Decide within the first inning. He threw 5 totally different choices to Decide at 5 totally different heights in that plate look alone earlier than placing him out.

Lugo’s 1-2 curve to Decide was to date off the plate it didn’t make the Gameday graph, however you’ll see it within the video:

Among the many lefties, the bottom two pitches, a first-inning sinker and a sixth-inning curve, had been thrown to Soto. Lugo struck out the slugger on a excessive foul tip within the first inning, once more following one other well-scattered set of choices that included a first-pitch known as strike; he instantly moved from that sinker on the decrease, inside edge to a cutter on the higher, outer nook:

Soto did put a cost into an 0-2 sinker within the sixth, hitting a 103-mph fly ball to left that was chased down by MJ Melendez simply in need of the warning observe; that was the one barrel Lugo surrendered all evening, and one in every of simply three hard-hit balls. As for the opposite lefties within the illustration, the cutter, curve, and outermost slurve had been to Wells, who grounded out, struck out, and, within the seventh inning, collected the Yankees’ different hit, a 101.5-mph single. The very best first-pitch slurve was to Chisholm within the fifth; he struck out in that plate look. The excessive sinker was to Anthony Rizzo, the one one in every of these half-dozen gamers who hasn’t been a part of the aforementioned above-average hitters recently; he ended up placing out in that sixth-inning PA. Rizzo apart, Lugo challenged the Yankees’ finest hitters within the zone and instantly put them behind within the rely, setting the tone for the evening.

Of the 12 different 0-0 pitches Lugo threw, three had been swinging strikes, all on the sting of the zone or simply barely exterior, and 4 had been fouls:

That’s 19 first-pitch strikes not in play to these 24 hitters, plus one — a sweeper to Anthony Volpe — that was popped up for a simple out within the sixth; Volpe additionally took the one borderline pitch of Lugo’s that was known as a ball, a third-inning four-seamer that preceded a foul-tip strikeout.

Fourteen of the hitters that fell behind 0-1 to Lugo by one means or one other ended up down 0-2. In all, the righty generated 14 whiffs (4 apiece with the four-seamer, cutter, and curve, plus one changeup and one slurve) from amongst his 51 swings (27% whiff price) and 26 known as strikes for a CSW price of 38.1%, practically 10 factors above his season price of 28.3%. He struck out 10 of 24 hitters, together with two strikeouts of Decide and one in every of Soto, and held the Yankees to a feeble 82.9 mph common exit velocity on contact. Soto and Decide completed a mixed 0-for-8 with 4 strikeouts, with John Schreiber — who took the baton from Kris Bubic following a spotless eighth — whiffing Soto within the ninth inning after which getting Decide to fly out to finish the sport.

Lugo’s stifling of the Yankees made for a stark distinction with New York starter Marcus Stroman, who didn’t have a single 1-2-3 inning in his 5 1/3 frames, and who created extra site visitors than a jackknifed 18-wheeler on I-95, yielding seven hits and two walks. Someway the Royals scored solely 3 times in opposition to him, preserving the sport nominally in attain, however the 5-0 victory — which was wrapped up in a tidy two hours and 28 minutes — by no means actually felt shut.

“[Lugo] was mixing a variety of pitches rather well tonight. He was simply pounding the strike zone… placing strike one and strike two to a lot of the guys,” Soto said. “It’s powerful with a man who has, like, 9 pitches and he was displaying each pitch, throwing every thing and he was assured about it, he simply stored us off steadiness.”

Certainly, Lugo’s success as a starter owes loads to the work he’s executed to broaden and refine his repertoire. As The Athletic’s Rustin Dodd and Eno Sarris put it earlier this summer time, he “has change into the game’s reply to Again to the Future’s Doc Brown, a mad scientist eternally seeking the right pitch form, a cerebral inventor underappreciated — till not too long ago — in his personal time.”

An image is value a thousand phrases, so right here’s a take a look at the best way Lugo’s pitch utilization has developed throughout his nine-year profession:

And right here’s the rate distribution of this yr’s choices:

“It’s really 10 totally different pitch sorts,” Royals pitching coach Brian Sweeney informed The Athletic, with Lugo including that pitch classification techniques “sort of blur them (collectively) slightly bit.”

A Thirty fourth-round decide by the Mets out of Centenary Faculty of Louisiana in 2011, Lugo reached the majors 5 years later, first working 9 video games in reduction after which becoming a member of the rotation for the stretch run instead of the injured Steven Matz. In seven begins that yr, he posted a 2.45 ERA (however a 5.30 FIP) whereas serving to the Mets — whose homegrown pitching expertise had carried them to the World Sequence the yr earlier than — to a Wild Card berth. A small UCL tear sidelined Lugo for the primary two months of the 2017 season, however after it healed because of relaxation and a platelet-rich plasma injection, he made 18 begins and one reduction look, albeit with less-than-impressive outcomes (4.71 ERA, 3.95 FIP) utilizing a five-pitch arsenal. Although he most popular to start out — and infrequently did, totaling 12 begins in 2018 and ’20 — he spent a lot of the subsequent 5 seasons as a reliever, mothballing his changeup however in any other case deploying a four-pitch assault that labored higher out of the bullpen:

As with most pitchers, Lugo was in a position to throw his fastball and different pitches more durable whereas working in brief bursts. The distinction in his four-seam fastball outcomes alone was fairly dramatic:

But Lugo wished to start out, routinely reminding pitching coaches Dave Eiland (2018–19) and Jeremy Hefner (2020–current) of his choice. “If not month-to-month, weekly,” Hefner informed The Athletic. When Lugo reached free company after the 2022 season, he signed a two-year cope with the Padres, one which paid $7.5 million for ’23, with efficiency bonuses primarily based on begins and reduction appearances, and a participant possibility for $7.5 million in ’24. As you possibly can see from the utilization graph, he developed a few distinct breaking ball variants, a slurve and a sweeper, to go together with his curve and slider, and he even dusted off his changeup after throwing simply 5 in 2020–21 and none in ’22.

Although he missed a few month in Might and June as a result of a left calf pressure, Lugo had a very good season for a Padres workforce that for all of its star energy was most notable for its underachievement. Regardless of a franchise report $255 million payroll, a full season of Soto, a Cy Younger from Blake Snell, and a Platinum Glove from Fernando Tatis Jr., the workforce went 82-80 and missed the playoffs. For his half, Lugo pitched to a 3.57 ERA and three.83 FIP in 26 begins totaling 146 1/3 innings, placing out 23.2% of hitters and setting a profession excessive with 2.9 WAR. Laborious contact was an issue, as urged by his 4.42 xERA (thirty ninth percentile). Batters averaged a 90.7 mph exit velocity in opposition to him, with a 9.6% barrel price and 44.2% hard-hit price, figures that every one ranked within the twenty third percentile or decrease.

Nonetheless, it was a robust sufficient season that Lugo opted out and netted a contract that not solely doubled his annual wage however assured the identical $15 million for 2025 and, through a participant possibility, ’26 as effectively. On Lugo’s half, it was an enormous leap of religion to hitch a workforce that misplaced 106 video games final yr, however between the free agent additions of Lugo and Michael Wacha, the blossoming of Ragans, a mid-2023 acquisition, and the advance of former first-round decide Brady Singer, the Royals can declare 4 of the highest 11 AL qualifiers by ERA, all of whom moreover rank within the prime 15 by WAR. In addition they have a believable MVP candidate in Bobby Witt Jr., and at this writing they’re 80-67, with a 92.7% likelihood of creating the playoffs, although after briefly shifting into a share of first place late final month, they’ve slipped again to 4 1/2 video games behind the Guardians.

Lugo pitched his manner onto the AL All-Star workforce with a 2.48 ERA and three.33 FIP within the first half, however from July 13 to August 13, he was touched for a 5.73 ERA in six begins totaling 37 2/3 innings. He’s righted the ship recently; over his previous three turns, all in opposition to potential AL postseason opponents (the Astros, Guardians, and Yankees), he’s allowed two runs and two walks whereas placing out 23 in 21 innings. He isn’t placing out as many hitters as final yr (21.7% vs. 23.2%), however he’s trimmed his homer price from 1.17 per 9 to 0.7. He’s elevated the utilization of his slurve and sweeper whereas chopping again on these of his four-seamer and sinker. Right here’s the way it breaks down alongside platoon strains:

These are two totally different plans of assault. Towards righties, Lugo tends to favor the sinker over the four-seamer, with the slurve and slider his prime two secondaries. Towards lefties, the four-seamer is his fastball of alternative, with the curve and changeup his prime secondaries. A few of his much less often used choices are notably efficient, with the aspect of shock an element. When the Yankees touched up Lugo for 4 runs in seven innings in Kansas Metropolis on June 10, he threw simply six cutters out of 101 pitches, whereas on Tuesday he threw 24, greater than every other providing. Along with 4 whiffs, he bought seven known as strikes together with his cutter for a 46% CSW price, spectacular however nonetheless shy of his 60% CSW price together with his four-seamer, which he threw simply 15 instances.

Word that every one of that is taking place with an arsenal that makes our two pitch-modeling techniques go “meh,” besides with respect to his breaking balls, that are aggregated such that his slurve is taken into account together with his curve and his sweeper together with his slider. Lugo’s spin charges on his curve (3,285 rpm) and slurve (3,133 rpm) are the majors’ highest for his or her respective pitches — admittedly, the latter has a lot much less competitors — and by Stuff+, solely his curves (135) and sliders (136) price as above-average pitches, together with his cutter proper at common (100). PitchingBot sees solely the curves (56) as above common, grading the sliders at 39. Due to Lugo’s wonderful command, each techniques rating him proper at common of their general metrics: 100 through Pitching+, 50 through BotOvr. Uh, okay.

Clearly, these metrics solely inform a part of the story. No matter Lugo is doing is working fairly effectively, and it’s probably going to garner him Cy Younger votes and an opportunity to make some noise within the playoffs. You possibly can’t ask for an entire lot extra from a free agent acquisition — or from any pitcher, for that matter.