RosterResource Chat – 11/29/24

Jason Martinez: Welcome to our 2nd RosterResource Dwell Chat! Thanks for becoming a member of us. Not so much has occurred since final week apart from the Snell/Kikuchi signings and largely unsurprising non-tenders. Nonetheless quite a lot of enjoyable matters to debate. Right here we go …

Matt: Bellinger opting in has put a little bit of a wrinkle into Jed’s offseason plans. When you have been Hoyer, how would you strategy bettering the offense , whereas making an attempt to provide some room for a few of their top-100,guys to emerge?

Jon Becker: This definitely wasn’t best for Hoyer, who will surely relatively have the Bellinger cash to spend elsewhere, to not point out the plate appearances. Enhancing the offense shall be robust outdoors of simply hoping for inside enhancements — the plain lane for that may have been to commerce Hoerner, however his surgical procedure complicates issues — or buying and selling Bellinger himself (additionally tough!). A catcher with offensive upside (Sánchez, Higashioka, and so on.) to pair with Amaya is the one place they will add a starter with out buying and selling another person.

NT: Have heard nothing in regards to the Twins. The place do you suppose they should improve and the way do you suppose they do it? Any probability of a Correa commerce in your estimation?

Jason Martinez: I don’t suppose Correa shall be traded. Would take quite a lot of creativity and both the Twins consuming quite a lot of $ or taking over one other huge contract in return. And that’s robust to do. Would like to see it. I feel there are a number of others groups in the identical boat.

They’ve to determine a technique to construct a staff that’s aggressive whereas not relying on Correa/Buxton/Lewis. And something these guys can contribute is a bonus. Brooks Lee and a few of the different children stepping up shall be enormous. Similar with pitching. A lot of children who can take the following step.

Jon Becker: It’s positively going to be a quiet offseason for them, a lot in order that it wouldn’t in any respect shock me to see them rank thirtieth in FA spending. Inner enhancements + including on the margins (RH OF, a lefty reliever) will most likely be about it for them.

TD: How do you suppose the Padres will strategy the low season, contemplating that they’re presently up towards the luxurious tax?

Jon Becker: They don’t have a Juan Soto-level contract to maneuver to concurrently decrease payroll and infuse expertise; Arraez wouldn’t convey again all that a lot, Cronenworth and Bogaerts are near un-trade-able, and so on. I feel they principally need to decide to being a luxurious tax payor since we have already got them projected at $3M over (https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/payroll/padres) and so they desperately want a catcher and left fielder, at minimal.

Visitor: Has there been any dialogue about assuming much less optimistic PAs within the Depth Chart projections? If that’s the case, what’s the reasoning for this assumption?

Jason Martinez: I really like discussing this matter however that is most likely not one of the best place to provide one of the best reply. Higher for extra particular gamers. However I’ll say that they are often much less optimistic for beginning pitching prospects. That’s as a result of we solely venture 100% although it must be extra like 125% simply because we all know for positive there shall be accidents. We simply can’t assume who will get damage. For place gamers, I feel they are often too optimistic as a result of my definition of “injury-prone” may be totally different than others.

So I’d have a look at it the pitchers extra like a depth chart order. Who’s subsequent in line if one of many prime 5 is out for the season? For place gamers, when ought to Royce Lewis be thought of “injury-prone” and penciled in for 75-80% as a substitute of 85-90%? He was 25 years outdated final season and had a number of freak accidents so I didn’t suppose he was “injury-prone” but. I used to be most likely mistaken.

BuccoFan: Do you agree that the Pirates can be higher off spending $30M on one or two distinction makers, as a substitute on 6 or 7 guys that inevitably will end round substitute stage?

Jon Becker: Undoubtedly, sure. The pitching appears fairly good however they badly want an precise risk in the course of the lineup, not one other Grandal + Taylor + Tellez “let’s hope for enhancements” offseason. Bringing McCutchen again really feel like a given and together with that I’d look into FA like Walker, Santander, and O’Neill, if I used to be Ben Cherington.

MilledgeReport: The Cardinals chosen Tink Therefore’s contract from AA this week. Do you guys anticipate he makes his MLB debut this yr, or is he somebody who wants extra time increase innings within the minors?

Jason Martinez: He’s gifted sufficient to power his approach into the combo. However I doubt the Cardinals are relying on it. Solely 79.2 IP final season. Perhaps he can attain 130 IP this season. If that’s the case, do they bring about him up early till they need to shut him down? Do they bring about him alongside very slowly in case he may help them within the 2nd half? Too many unknowns for the Cardinals to imagine both of these eventualities. I feel they simply hope he continues to progress and never fear about when to name him up.

Jon Becker: I additionally don’t suppose “wants extra time increase innings” and “makes his MLB debut” need to be mutually unique both. how the White Sox dealt with Crochet down the stretch, the Cardinals may name Therefore up when rosters develop to get him on an every-fifth-day schedule, however restrict him to 3 innings apiece.

Visitor: Have the Dodgers fully given up on Lux as a SS?

Jon Becker: It wouldn’t shock me if they offer him a shot there in Spring Coaching, however the throwing actually did look tough earlier than they flipped him and Betts on the very finish of Spring Coaching this previous season. Having the ability to platoon at quick with Rojas and having Betts play 2B, the place he’d higher, would make issues simpler for positive. Or they may simply signal Adames, after all.

White Sox: Any specific low value free brokers that may be into some taking part in time? Crochet seemingly fetching two Prime 100s?

Jason Martinez: 2 Prime 100 prospects is what it will take to begin a dialog. Crimson Sox need to be the favourite however I feel there are a number of different groups who can be keen.

Free Agent market is stuffed with these low-cost veterans … https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/free-agent-tracker

However why would they wish to play for the White Sox? Provided that it’s their finest probability at common taking part in time. I feel there’s room for 2 bats (OF/DH), 2 SP, and some RPs.  Perhaps a David Peralta or Randal Grichuk. Perhaps a Cal Quantrill or Griffin Canning.

Jon Becker: I’ll additionally throw Sócrates Brito in there, solely as a result of Jon Heyman reported this morning he’s getting MLB curiosity, and veterans getting back from the KBO is enjoyable!

Seattle_54percenters: What sensible choices for Mariners at 3B, 2B, and 1B/DH? Possession prefers income to successful sadly:/

Jon Becker: I completely get why individuals wish to tie them to gamers like Alonso and Bregman, however Dipoto and possession have simply by no means operated in that stratosphere for FA. I do suppose they’ll nonetheless be some good gamers, although. Gleyber, Profar, Joc, Conforto come to thoughts, and so they’ve obtained reported curiosity in a reunion with Justin Turner or Carlos Santana.

Matt (Oceanside): I noticed you might have Mookie listed because the Dodgers beginning SS. Together with his poor metrics there final season after the shock change from second. He had spent all of the final offseason prepping for a return to 2B- doesn’t that counsel that 2B is his most evident place and both buying and selling Lux or making an attempt Lux once more at SS after an extended time away from the knee surgical procedures?

Jason Martinez: It’s a type of tough issues to speak on the RR Opening Day roster projection. Mookie is taking part in infield. We all know that for positive. And I don’t suppose they’re going to provide Lux one other probability at SS, largely as a result of they’re the Dodgers and so they don’t have to enter the season with that stage of uncertainty at an necessary spot. So what that projection tells you is that they don’t have their beginning SS on the roster presently.

The Last Boss: Excessive College Reunion in Boston? Giolito + Fried and Flaherty?

Jon Becker: Undoubtedly believable contemplating they’ve been related to only about each huge FA, and in the event that they don’t get Soto (or even when they do, I suppose) I may see them going huge for one or two vital SP. Must share the within jokes with Houck and Bello, although.

friday scaries: Tim Tawa and Joe Elbis struck me as fascinating 40 man additions for a probable playoff contender, what do you make of them?

Jason Martinez: Tawa has put up good offensive numbers within the higher minors and he can play a number of positions (INF and OF). So I feel he’s only a man who would seemingly be standard within the R5 draft and the Dbacks didn’t wish to lose him. Elbis might be in an identical place. Not a prime prospect with the big-time arm, however appears like he has good command and groups may most likely see him as a succesful lengthy reliever in 2025.

Matt: Suppose Cubs extra prone to go FA signing of vet with out QO hooked up , so as to improve SP, or will they appear to commerce mkt(SEA?)?

Jon Becker: If they will line up with the White Sox for Crochet or the Mariners for a starter, they definitely have the upper-level impression prospects to make a commerce really feel just like the “simpler” lane. In the event that they’re not focused on starters with QOs hooked up, the one prime of the rotation (or near it) choices are Flaherty, Eovaldi, or an upside play on Bieber, who received’t be prepared for the beginning of the season.

David Stearns: Prediction on who the Mets signal this offseason? Is also Taylor actually gonna begin over Siri?

Jason Martinez: I do know it most likely looks as if Siri would begin in CF, however he was actually, actually, actually unhealthy in 2024. And in lots of components of earlier seasons. And Taylor was superb whereas taking part in often on the finish of the season. I don’t suppose both will begin, although.

Jon and I each predicted final week that Soto would signal with the Mets, which might seemingly push Nimmo to CF. And in the event that they fall quick on Soto, I feel they’ll get somebody like Teoscar or Santander. I additionally suppose they’re going to re-sign Pete Alonso. Cohen isn’t messing round this offseason.

Jon Becker: And even when that is the outfielders they’ve obtained going into the season, I don’t suppose one’s going to play far more than the opposite. Siri hit fastballs higher than Taylor, Taylor hit every part else higher, Marte will want days off, and so on. If/once they do add, there are nonetheless going to be loads of PAs to go round, too.

Rywe: What do you suppose the Giants plan to do that offseason contemplating they’ve publicly stated they’re chopping payroll for 2025? I doubt Buster is gonna break the financial institution for a high-tier free agent and the Giants have so many holes to fill (SP, SS, 2B)

Jon Becker: The payroll chopping takes them out of the working for Soto, with whom they didn’t even meet, nevertheless it received’t forestall them from a lot else. They’ve nonetheless obtained about $50M to spend earlier than hitting 2024’s payroll, and there’s so much you are able to do with that (Adames + Fried are most likely someplace round there in mixed AAV, for instance, not that I count on them to do this). They might commerce Yaz to clear up some outfield taking part in time (and money) or commerce Wade and go greater for Alonso or Walker with loads of room to nonetheless say they reduce payroll.

Rywe: What function does Tyler Fitzgerald have this yr? He was subpar at SS final season however satisfactory at 2B. Utility man that fills in on off days for Jung-Hoo Lee?

Jason Martinez: Looks like probably the most logical spot is 2B. Perhaps 1B in the event that they commerce LaMonte Wade Jr. He is also a Zobrist-type utilityman that performs on a regular basis at 4-5 totally different spots. But when they don’t get Adames or Kim, they could have to stay with him at SS.

Doc Estes: Do you might have a number of favourite post-hype prospects which will make a big impression in 2025?

Jon Becker: Does Jackson Holliday depend as post-hype but? Issues couldn’t have gone a lot worse for him on the plate, and he regarded fairly tough at second base, too, however the toe faucet he labored in over the last week of the season appeared to work out properly. I don’t suppose the O’s are going to accumulate anybody to dam him, both.

Jonathan: The place will Juan Soto be taking part in in 2025?

Jason Martinez: As I discussed a number of questions in the past, Jon and I each predicted NYM in final week’s chat. However, realistically, why would he signal with any staff apart from the Dodgers, Mets, or Yankees? Phillies most likely belong in that group, as properly. He’s going to signal a 15-year deal and he is aware of that these groups are going to attempt to win yearly. Crimson Sox may persuade him that they may do the identical. Perhaps the Blue Jays. Might the Nats persuade him that they plan to spend $ and be aggressive for the following 15 years? Perhaps. However he’s Juan Soto. He doesn’t need to go together with “possibly”. He is aware of the Dodgers, Mets, and Yankees are going to spend each offseason to construct round him.

Jon Becker: That’s an enormous a part of why I don’t suppose the Blue Jays have a lot of a shot except they blow all the opposite gives out of the water, which I don’t suppose goes to occur, both. The promoting level is… the final yr of Vlad Jr. and a potentially-closing window with out a lot in the way in which of prospects on the way in which?

Coach73: Might You speculate on the groups that would use Gleyber torres?

Jon Becker: I feel there’ll be fairly widespread curiosity in him as a bounce again choice, although he’s restricted to 2B and isn’t notably good at taking part in there, both. I discussed the Mariners earlier however the Crimson Sox additionally make quite a lot of sense, and the Blue Jays are reportedly , too. Perhaps somebody just like the Marlins jumps in for a one-year supply if the multi-year contract gives aren’t wanting nice.

Blair: What SP will the Mets attempt to purchase by way of commerce? Is Luis Castillo a sensible choice?

Jason Martinez: The Mariners are one of many few groups that may afford to commerce one among their finest beginning pitchers so I feel it’s sensible. However, even then, beginning rotation is the explanation they’re a respectable contender each season so possibly they simply don’t wish to subtract from that. One potential very fascinating commerce choice, for my part, may very well be Dylan Stop if the Padres are handcuffed financially this offseason. The value for beginning pitchers is loopy excessive and Stop can be inexpensive at round $13-14MM for one season.

Jon Becker: I uncared for to say Stop earlier after I stated they don’t have a Soto-level contract/participant to commerce, and Stop definitely isn’t that, however he would convey again fairly the return. They might then flip round and signal an honest starter for half as a lot. Martín Pérez pitched properly there after the commerce, for instance.

Matt: Which of Cubs prepared or near-ready prospects deserve a legit shot this yr?

Jon Becker: Assuming well being I feel we’ll see Matt Shaw in some unspecified time in the future this yr, possibly early on Hoerner has a setback or the offense isn’t clicking. Ballesteros is one other one who may get the decision if Amaya/Thaiss are the 2 catchers and aren’t hitting. On the pitching facet, a wholesome Cade Horton most likely debuts in some unspecified time in the future, too.

Ben: I’ve questioned this for therefore lengthy however how are the ability rankings measured on RR? I may by no means discover an correct correlation with WAR so I by no means knew.

Jason Martinez: For batters, it’s most likely nearer to wRC+ as a result of there is no such thing as a protection included within the method. After which the difficult half is to stability out counting stats and price stats so small-sample dimension doesn’t get weighted too closely. Once I created it a very long time in the past, the aim was so {that a} reader may simply get a common concept of whether or not a participant was having an excellent season (general or final 7/14 days) or not after which analysis additional if needed. I feel it really works properly for that.

Eric: If the Mets signal Juan Soto, do you count on them to match their 2024 payroll in 2025 by regularly including?

Jon Becker: Even in case you determine Soto’s at $50M/yr, spending one other ~$125M on prime of that feels actually, actually laborious, however not not possible. Going aggressive on the rotation (Burnes + Manaea + Flaherty, or one thing like that) remains to be solely $75M or so.

Coach73: Do you see jonathan aranda making an impression this yr?

Jason Martinez: Sure, I do. That is his make-or-break season, for my part. He’s out of choices and the Rays haven’t actually given him a lot of a chance. And accidents haven’t helped. As of now, I’ve him penciled in to the beginning lineup … https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/rays

I might love for the Padres to accumulate him, which is feasible if the Rays don’t actually consider in him as an on a regular basis man. After all, I feel the Padres are obligated to have a number of gamers from Tijuana on their roster. Tirso Ornelas, Alejandro Kirk, and Aranda would match that aim for me.

Jason Martinez: Gonna wrap it up now. We’ll be again for an additional chat subsequent Friday on the identical time. Have an important weekend!

Jon Becker: Thanks for stopping by, everybody!