Rodgers Out, Moustakas In as Rockies Are Forced to Rearrange the Infield

I first realized about joint dislocation in 2003 after Derek Jeter slid right into a nasty collision at third base. After I heard that Jeter had suffered a dislocated shoulder, my five-year-old mind naturally conjured up a picture of a disembodied arm mendacity on the infield filth. You possibly can think about my shock when the Yankees shortstop returned six weeks later, each arms firmly secured of their sockets.

As horrifying as dislocation sounds, and as painful as I’m positive it’s, a dislocated shoulder isn’t all the time a critical damage. Fernando Tatis Jr. dislocated his shoulder a number of instances throughout the 2021 season and nonetheless managed to play 130 video games and put up 7.3 WAR en path to a third-place end for NL MVP. Brandon Inge as soon as dislocated his shoulder mid-game and popped it again in place on the sphere; the very subsequent inning, he smacked a go-ahead RBI single.

Thus, when Brendan Rodgers landed awkwardly on his shoulder final Tuesday, there was no trigger for panic immediately. Supervisor Bud Black described the incident as “a reasonably traditional factor,” whereas Matthew Ritchie of MLB.com wrote that Rodgers is likely to be “a tad delayed.” Sadly, the damage seems to be way more important than your run-of-the-mill dislocation, with reports suggesting Rodgers would possibly want surgical procedure to restore the harm. If he goes underneath the knife, the Rockies second baseman might miss most, if not all, of the upcoming season.

In case you aren’t acquainted with Rodgers, your opinion of him is likely to be extremely dependent in your go-to supply for baseball statistics. Our model of WAR would have you ever imagine he was a wonderfully serviceable, if unspectacular, participant final season. Rodgers put up 1.7 WAR in 137 video games, on tempo for two.0 WAR in 162. That’s a league-average contributor. Baseball Reference, nevertheless, will inform you that Rodgers was price 4.3 WAR, placing him on tempo for greater than 5 wins in 162 video games. These are All-Star numbers. Lastly, Baseball Prospectus had Rodgers someplace within the center. He posted 3.1 WARP final season, nearly the precise midpoint between his fWAR and bWAR.

On high of that, every web site arrives at his WAR another way. At FanGraphs, as you would possibly guess, we weren’t notably excessive on Rodgers for his bat or his glove; his offense was a bit of worse than common, whereas his protection was a bit of higher, however neither was a standout talent. Baseball Reference, in the meantime, was enamored along with his glove, score Rodgers as top-of-the-line fielders in baseball final season, therefore the All-Star-caliber WAR. Baseball Prospectus wasn’t fairly as excessive on his protection however had a a lot increased opinion of his offense, score Rodgers as an above-average hitter.

All of this implies to me that we’re nonetheless studying who Rodgers is as a participant. Now, we’ll have to attend one other 12 months to search out out.

Rodgers performed his first full season in 2022, batting .266/.325/.408 with 13 residence runs in 581 PA. Whereas his residence stats certainly obtained a lift from the pleasant confines of Coors Area, his away splits have been surprisingly terrible, dragged down by a .245 BABIP and a minuscule HR/FB ratio. Thus, Rodgers might be a greater hitter than his 92 wRC+ from final season suggests, however he has but to develop into the offensive pressure he regarded like as a prospect.

On our 2020 Top 100 Prospects list, Eric Longenhagen praised Rodgers for his bat, assigning a 60 Future Worth to each his hit instrument and his recreation energy. Our prospect guru accompanied these grades with a optimistic analysis: “One axiom to which we attempt to adhere is ‘good hitters hit on a regular basis’ and that’s certainly what Rodgers has carried out for the final eight years.” Since reaching the majors, nevertheless, Rodgers has stalled out, and his bat has but to turn into an asset.

Fortunately for Rodgers, the younger infielder has taken some massive strides on the opposite aspect of the ball. Protection was by no means his calling card as a prospect, and actually, there have been as soon as questions on his capability to stay at second base. In 2021, Rodgers graded out as a poor defender in line with DRS, UZR, and OAA. Final season, nevertheless, he turned issues round, enhancing his numbers in nearly each defensive class and profitable a Gold Glove besides:

The Rockies, like the remainder of us, should wait one other 12 months to see if their former high prospect can dwell as much as his potential with the bat and keep his success with the glove. It’s a disappointing loss for Colorado, additional lowering the group’s possibilities to “play .500 ball,” as proprietor Dick Monfort predicted in January.

With Rodgers’s season in query, the Rockies turned to the free agent marketplace for a backup plan. They agreed to a minor league cope with veteran infielder Mike Moustakas, who was launched by the Reds in January. Jon Heyman initially reported that Moustakas would play second base, however Moustakas himself confirmed to Thomas Harding of MLB.com that he’s solely comfy taking part in first, third, and DH. This strains up with GM Bill Schmidt’s plan to maneuver Ryan McMahon over to second base, releasing up a spot for Moose at third.

McMahon was primarily a 3rd baseman within the minors however performed second in his first two full seasons to accommodate Nolan Arenado on the sizzling nook. After Arenado was traded, McMahon slid again to 3rd whereas Rodgers took over at second. McMahon has had nice success since returning to his pure place, compiling 23 DRS and 20 OAA because the begin of the 2021 marketing campaign. He is probably not as helpful a defender at second base, however his unexceptional arm ought to play higher on the keystone. His unexceptional bat can even play higher at second base, the place the offensive bar isn’t fairly as excessive. The common second baseman had a wRC+ of 96 final season, whereas the typical third baseman had a wRC+ of 102; McMahon posted a 95 wRC+ in 597 PA.

Moustakas is not any McMahon or Rodgers with the glove, and he’s nicely previous the purpose in his profession when he was a Gold Glove finalist. He has performed simply 71 video games at third the final three years, placing up -6 DRS and -4 OAA. Certainly, the 34-year-old took most of his at-bats as a delegated hitter final season. However, he ought to nonetheless be able to holding a glove at third, and his offense is a extra important concern than his protection anyhow. For the reason that begin of the 2021 season, Moustakas has posted a 73 wRC+ in 491 PA. He struck out on the highest fee of his profession in 2021, then struck out much more the next 12 months. His remoted energy final season was .131; it hasn’t been decrease since his rookie marketing campaign.

Moustakas has handled arm, hip, leg, and foot accidents over the previous two seasons, and he now claims to be back at full strength. When he was final wholesome, he was nonetheless a helpful offensive contributor (105 wRC+ in 2020), so there’s hope for a bounce again, however I wouldn’t maintain my breath. It’s usually not a great signal when hitters of their 30s begin to present worse plate self-discipline and make considerably much less laborious contact than they did earlier than. Don’t neglect, there’s a cause the Reds are paying Moustakas eight figures to not play for them this season.

Due to this fact, whereas the Moustakas signing got here within the wake of the information about Rodgers, I’m skeptical that Colorado views him as a direct substitute. It’s extra possible the Rockies will contemplate him for taking part in time alongside Nolan Jones and Elehuris Montero. Moustakas isn’t an answer; he’s merely added depth.

Whereas Jones shares a given identify with the best third baseman in Rockies historical past, Montero got here to Colorado two years in the past in alternate for the exact same man. Jones is a former third base prospect who transformed to the outfield in 2022 with the Guardians. Montero performed first and third for the Rockies final 12 months. Each are promising bat-first gamers who exceeded rookie limits throughout the 2022 season. Every has the potential to turn into a giant league common, and one would assume a rebuilding group just like the Rockies would favor to offer the children plate appearances over an ageing veteran.

Additional complicating Moustakas’s path to taking part in time are C.J. Cron and Charlie Blackmon. Cron goes to be the on a regular basis first baseman, and he initiatives to be one of many higher hitters in Colorado’s lineup. Blackmon, a veteran lefty like Moustakas, figures to get the vast majority of the plate appearances at DH towards right-handed pitching. Even a bench function received’t be straightforward to come back by, because the Rockies want one bench spot for a backup catcher and one other for a utility infielder. If Jones and Montero cut up time at third, the ultimate bench spot in all probability has to go to somebody who can play heart discipline. For all these causes, Moustakas isn’t simply going to stroll onto the Rockies roster. There’s room for him if he earns a spot, however it’s going to take a powerful exhibiting this spring.

The damage to Rodgers threw a wrench in Colorado’s recreation plan, and signing Moustakas was hardly the answer. All the identical, the Rockies will hope that including this ageing slugger makes the lack of their younger Gold Glover a bit of extra bearable… or ought to I say Moose-able? No, no I shouldn’t.