Robbie Ray Came Out Firing, but a Flexor Strain Doused His Flame

The 2023 season is just a handful of days outdated, however already one other Cy Younger winner is on the shelf. After Justin Verlander was placed on the injured list final Friday, Robbie Ray joined him the next afternoon. The Mariners lefty was faraway from his season debut in opposition to the Guardians in the midst of the fourth inning, having thrown 91 pitches and given up 5 walks and 5 runs. It wasn’t clear his exit was injury-related on the time, however Ray later revealed he’d been feeling pain since the second inning. He was in the end recognized with a left flexor pressure, which can hold him out for 4 to 6 weeks.

Even earlier than Ray’s damage was recognized, the Mariners had trigger for concern. For one factor, 5 walks in three-plus innings is definitely a worrisome signal. To make issues worse, two of these walks got here within the first inning, earlier than he started to really feel sore. Ray has been notoriously wild prior to now — he leads all energetic pitchers in five-walk video games — however he had seemingly gotten his free passes underneath management the final two years:

In his second begin of the 2021 season, Ray walked six batters in 5 innings of labor. From that time onwards, he has posted a superbly respectable 2.64 BB/9 (84 BB/9+). He must hold his stroll fee in test to succeed going ahead; hopefully his management will enhance when his flexor pressure heals.

The opposite troublesome improvement was Ray’s diminishing velocity. The 31-year-old has seen his fastball fluctuate over time, however he’s at his greatest when his heater has some additional oomph. Per Baseball Savant, his four-seamer averaged 94.2 mph throughout his All-Star 2017 season; the following time it was above 94 was his Cy Younger marketing campaign in 2021. His three greatest seasons by WAR (2016, ’17, ’21) additionally occur to be his greatest by common fastball velocity.

Following a full offseason uninterrupted by free-agent negotiations or lockout drama, Ray got here to spring coaching with some additional warmth. By his third begin of the spring, he was averaging over 95 mph together with his four-seamer, impressing both his catcher and his pitching coach. Cal Raleigh instructed Adam Jude of the Seattle Instances that he might see the distinction in Ray’s fastball, remarking: “It’s only a completely different animal when it’s popping out like that.” Pitching coach Pete Woodworth was a bit extra blunt: “I used to be like, ‘Holy [expletive].’”

After such a powerful spring, Ray’s velocity was a scorching matter coming into his regular-season debut. At first, he lived as much as the hype, hitting 94.6 mph together with his first providing and maxing out at 95.6 a number of pitches later. However his velocity shortly dropped as the primary inning went on; his remaining fastball of the body clocked in at 93.6. By the point he started the second inning, one thing was clearly off: His first three fastballs to Oscar Gonzalez got here in at 89.9, 92.1, and 91.8. He ultimately constructed his means again to 94 however largely stayed within the 92–93 vary for the remainder of his outing. His slider velocity was falling too; it began within the 86–87 vary and dropped to 83.1 by his final batter confronted.

It’s secure to presume Ray’s velocity was affected by his damage, but it surely’s laborious to say how a lot. Even at full well being, his stamina has been a subject of concern prior to now. Simply final season, he displayed an inclination to come back in scorching and shortly lose steam:

As such, we’ll have to attend and see if Ray can actually throw 95 with consistency. Excessive velocity is nice, however a 95-mph heater is far much less efficient if it turns right into a 93-mph pitch after a single inning of labor.

Including a pair miles per hour would assist virtually anybody, but it surely may very well be particularly useful for Ray. Most pitchers with out blistering fastballs succeed by switching up their pitch speeds. It’s a easy technique: get the batter used to your fastball, then trick him with a a lot slower providing. Ray takes a special method. Out of all pitchers to throw no less than 100 innings final season, he had the smallest velocity differential between his fastball and his secondary pitches. His four-seamer averaged 93.4 mph, and his sinker was almost equivalent at 93.3. His slider got here in at 87.2, solely 6.2 mph slower than his four-seam. He performed with a 79.7-mph curveball, too, however used it simply 1.9% of the time. The one different pitcher who got here shut was Drew Hutchison, a replacement-level arm for the Tigers, whose slider was 6.4 mph slower than his fastball. Nobody else had a velocity differential of lower than 7.6 mph:

This isn’t a failing on Ray’s half; it’s clearly a alternative. Again in 2016, he told David Laurila that he wished to throw his slider and changeup extra like his fastball, making the case that pitches don’t must be sluggish. A number of years later, he made a similar point about his curve. He now not depends on the changeup or the curveball, however his philosophy stays unchanged.

Clearly, this method can work, but it surely leaves much less margin for error. Ray doesn’t catch batters off guard together with his timing, nor does he merely blow the ball previous them. As an alternative, he tips his opponents with location, throwing his four-seamer to the glove facet, his sinker to the arm facet, and his slider down low and out of the zone. With each little bit of velocity he loses, opposing batters have extra time to acknowledge his pitches. Thus, the quicker he throws, the higher he might be:

Whereas Ray is out, Chris Flexen will take his place. He has been with the Mariners for the reason that begin of the 2021 season and pitched within the rotation till mid-2022, when he misplaced his beginning gig to Luis Castillo. Whereas the overwhelming majority of starters would lose their jobs if Castillo got here to interchange them, Flexen may need been trending in that route anyway. He had gotten off to begin with the M’s in 2021 however was slowly changing into much less and fewer efficient; his common fastball velocity was down, and his stroll fee was steadily climbing:

In his first 20 video games for Seattle, Flexen walked simply 1.87 batters per 9, and his four-seam fastball registered at 92.7 mph. Over his newest twenty begins, he has walked 3.25 per 9, together with his common fastball velocity right down to 91.7. In 12 appearances out of the bullpen, his velocity has been solely a smidge larger, and his stroll fee is even worse. (Declining velocity and a hard stroll fee… the place have I heard these considerations earlier than?)

Flexen is okay so far as depth choices go; most groups don’t have a sixth starter with a lot latest expertise already on the 26-man roster. However the downgrade from Ray to Flexen is steep. The 2 have some comparable issues, however the former compensates for his weaknesses with strikeout stuff that the latter might solely dream of:

Left-hander Gabe Speier has been recalled from Triple-A to fill Flexen’s spot on the roster. With 41 MLB video games underneath his belt, he was essentially the most skilled arm the Mariners had remaining on the 40-man and turns into the one southpaw in Seattle’s bullpen. He was strong in 17 appearances for Kansas Metropolis final season from April to June, however he had some assist from the great luck trifecta: low BABIP, excessive LOB%, and low HR/FB ratio. Moreover, he was used virtually solely in low-leverage spots and struggled tremendously at Triple-A (a 14.51 ERA in 26.2 IP). Nonetheless, the Mariners noticed one thing in his arm and claimed him off waivers this winter.

Speier appears to have ditched his four-seam fastball (his least efficient pitch) in favor of his sinker, and the outcomes have been promising. He additionally had a powerful spring and pitched properly in back-to-back appearances this weekend:

After a poor begin to the season, the Mariners have fallen behind the Rangers in our playoff odds. Their postseason probabilities at present stand at 31.8%, representing a large dip from their 42.2% odds on Opening Day. These numbers will rise and fall all year long, and it’s not price monitoring the adjustments too carefully. I solely point out the percentages to underscore how tight the AL Wild Card race might be. 4 groups are projected to complete inside two wins of the ultimate postseason berth: the Angels, Rangers, Guardians, and Pink Sox. The Mariners sit simply behind the pack with an 81–81 projected file. Thus, they want each benefit they’ll get. If Ray returns throwing 95-mph bullets within the strike zone, it is going to be precisely the enhance his group is searching for.