Rhys Is in Pieces, and the Phillies Are Left To Pick Them Up

Earlier than I began at FanGraphs, most of my writing was in regards to the Phillies. Once I took this gig, I made a promise that I’d proceed to jot down about my favourite group, joking that this was merely “another place to gush about Rhys Hoskins.” I have to admit, this isn’t how I hoped to satisfy that promise.

On Thursday afternoon, Hoskins was manning first in a Grapefruit League contest in opposition to the Tigers. It was a contented day for Philadelphia, with Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber, and J.T. Realmuto making their return from the World Baseball Traditional. The Phillies had been fielding what may have been their Opening Day lineup for the very first time. This wasn’t simply any outdated Thursday in March; it was an opportunity to see how the reigning NL champs deliberate to defend their title.

Issues obtained off to a promising begin when Schwarber doubled and Hoskins drove him residence within the backside of the primary. Woefully, the nice emotions wouldn’t final for lengthy. The next inning, Austin Meadows hit a high-bouncing grounder alongside the first-base line, and Hoskins turned to chase it into shallow proper discipline. He almost made the play, however the ball slipped out of his glove, like a scoop of ice cream falling from the highest of the cone. As he moved to retrieve the ball, he took a clumsy flip. One step later, and Hoskins was crumpled on the grass in ache:

It was instantly clear that one thing was mistaken. Bailey Falter signaled for assist from the dugout as Bryson Stott referred to as for time. Each Phillie on the sector got here to examine on their fallen teammate. Quickly, the paramedics would cart him away.

After the sport, Hoskins was recognized with a torn ACL. He would require reconstructive surgical procedure, and his 2023 season is sort of definitely over; ACL surgical procedure requires six to 9 months of restoration time, which suggests the earliest Hoskins may return is late September. It’s doable he’ll be again on the sector in time for the playoffs, nevertheless it’s not one thing the Phillies can rely on. Even when he recuperates in report time, he gained’t be at his finest, as it will probably take a yr (or extra) for a reconstructed ACL to get well full power.

The optimistic subset of the Phillies fanbase will level to Schwarber, who tore his ACL in April 2016 and returned to motion in simply over six months, coming again in time to attain two runs, drive in two extra, and submit a .971 OPS within the World Collection. The pessimistic crowd will level to Ronald Acuña Jr., who tore his ACL in July 2021 and was nonetheless recovering the next April. It could take him greater than 9 months to return, and even when he did, he didn’t look fairly himself.

The timing of the harm couldn’t be worse for Hoskins, who’s getting into his ultimate yr underneath group management and goes to hit the open market this November; there’s likelihood he would have been the most effective free-agent hitter out there (non-Shohei Ohtani division). The 30-year-old slugger has a profession 125 wRC+ and has been an above-average offensive participant in every of the final six seasons. After we put collectively our Positional Power Rankings at first base, Hoskins and the Phillies got here in tenth, only a smidge forward of José Abreu and the Astros. Certainly, Hoskins had related projections because the Cuban veteran, who signed a three-year, $58 million deal this November, and whereas he doesn’t have Abreu’s observe report, he’s six years youthful, and the free-agent market subsequent winter goes to be skinny on affect bats. Hoskins most likely may have earned himself an identical deal to Abreu’s, maybe with an additional yr or two tacked on. Now, it’s much more probably he indicators a one-year “prove-it” type contract. If that’s the trail he takes, he’ll hit the open market once more in 2024, one other yr older and as a part of a a lot deeper free-agent class. No matter occurs from right here on out, he might have misplaced tens of tens of millions of {dollars}.

Apart from the monetary issues, this might be an awfully disappointing finish to Hoskins’ time with the Phillies. He will probably be perpetually remembered for his headline-making rookie season, when he set an MLB report with 18 residence runs in his first 34 video games. By no means once more would he make such a splash on the nationwide stage, however he has been a constant producer for the Phillies by means of good times and bad.

Along with his efficiency on the sector, Hoskins has developed a popularity as a spokesman for his teammates, a frontrunner within the clubhouse, and an lively member of the local people. He has all the time been recreation to take part in MLB promos and extracurricular actions, just like the Japan All-Star Collection or an MLB The Present livestream match through the early days of the pandemic. He even starred in a series of delightfully corny GIFs that also pop up while you seek for a Phillies decal on Instagram:

To be clear, it’s no positive factor that Hoskins is completed in Philadelphia. Actually, his harm may even enhance the possibilities he returns in 2024. Given the sheer variety of ageing DH sorts already on the roster, the group was unlikely to supply him a multi-year deal. If Hoskins is keen to just accept a one-year contract, there ought to be room for him to stay round. All the identical, the longer term is unsure, and I’ve to acknowledge the likelihood that the longest-tenured place participant on the Phillies won’t ever hit one other walk-off at Residents Financial institution Park:

So how will Dave Dombrowski and Rob Thomson substitute Hoskins and his 30-homer bat in the course of the lineup? There’s no scarcity of band-aid options, although every comes with its personal issues. Probably the most simple substitute can be to place Darick Hall at first base. Corridor performed first within the minors and was already going to get loads of begins at DH this yr; with him at first, Thomson can rotate Schwarber and Nick Castellanos within the DH spot and use guys like Josh Harrison, Jake Cave, and even Scott Kingery within the outfield corners. Shedding Hoskins is a significant offensive downgrade, however not less than the outfield protection will probably be stronger.

Sadly, Corridor has been dreadful in opposition to left-handed pitching all through his skilled profession. Throughout his 42 video games with the Phillies final season, he was given solely 12 PA in opposition to southpaws and picked up one hit with seven strikeouts. If the Phillies are going to depend on him at first, he’ll want a platoon associate, however the one right-handed hitter on the 40-man with any first base expertise is the 5-foot-8 Harrison, whose profession on the chilly nook quantities to a single inning there about three years in the past.

Thomson, then, will most likely have to maneuver one other place participant to first in opposition to left-handed pitching. That might be Realmuto (with Garrett Stubbs catching) or Alec Bohm (with Edmundo Sosa masking third). Realmuto is a succesful first baseman, and he does want to play first when he’s not behind the dish, however his catching expertise are too priceless to lose regularly. Meaning Bohm most likely will get loads of time at first, which isn’t ultimate, as his glove was lastly beginning to enhance on the scorching nook, although not less than Sosa can play high-level protection in his stead. Kody Clemens is one other man on the roster with expertise at first, however he’s left-handed like Corridor. And in contrast to Corridor, he hasn’t had any success on the MLB degree, nor as a lot success within the minors. Clemens will present his supervisor with additional depth at first, however he gained’t be beginning with any frequency.

If Dombrowski is unimpressed with the interior choices, he gained’t be a lot happier with the remaining free brokers. The best choice out there is Miguel Sanó, and I take advantage of the phrase “finest” by means of gritted enamel. He’s coming off a knee harm that restricted him to twenty video games final season, and his projections are uninspiring (106 wRC+, 0.2 WAR per our Depth Charts). On-field efficiency apart, the Phillies have lastly cleared their roster of gamers accused of violent assault; signing Sano, who allegedly assaulted a woman back in 2015, can be a step within the mistaken course and an affront to the fanbase.

One other plan of action can be to attend to see if first basemen like Luke Voit or Yuli Gurriel decide out of their minor league offers with the Brewers and Marlins, respectively. The Phillies may use some veteran depth, nevertheless it’s debatable whether or not both can be well worth the 40-man spot he’d require. Making a commerce is an choice, too, however Dombrowski would wish to pay by means of the nostril to accumulate a primary baseman of word this early within the season. C.J. Cron is perhaps out there on the deadline, however the Rockies most likely aren’t able to throw within the towel fairly but. Maybe the Reds would half with Wil Myers, however Nick Krall is aware of the Phillies are determined, so he gained’t come low cost.

Dombrowski should resolve if a minimal improve is value a real commerce chip. And he may very effectively resolve that it’s! The Phillies are teetering on the sting of the Wild Card race, and their playoff odds are beneath 50%. They’d profit extra from a marginal improve than some other group, and the earlier they act, the extra useful that improve will probably be. Then again, Dombrowski may want to attend. The increase that Myers or Cron would offer would actually be marginal in essentially the most excessive sense of the phrase, and the Phillies is perhaps higher off going with a platoon of Corridor, Bohm, and Realmuto within the early going and seeing how issues shake out. The offense will probably be worse — that occurs while you lose a bat like Hoskins — however not less than the protection will probably be stronger.

In the end, there’s no straightforward answer. What is obvious, nevertheless, is that the Phillies are in an much more precarious place than earlier than. Defending their Nationwide League pennant was all the time going to be a tall job. With the lack of their 6-foot-4 first baseman, the duty simply obtained taller.