Jurickson Profar was certainly one of simply three gamers on our annual Prime 50 free-agent checklist right here at MLBTR who hadn’t agreed to phrases on a brand new contract previous to the calendar flipping to 2023. Two months later, Profar remains to be a free agent and, unsurprisingly, is the ultimate unsigned member of that very same prime 50 checklist.
It’s truthful to surprise simply how aggressive he and agent Scott Boras had been early within the winter. Profar started his offseason by declining a $7.5MM participant possibility. Whereas he by no means appeared more likely to signal any form of mega-deal, whilst somebody who’s extra bearish on the participant than many, I anticipated that he’d surpass that stage of compensation. We put a comparatively modest two-year, $20MM prediction on Profar’s eventual contract, however MLBTR was decrease than many on the veteran switch-hitter; the New York Post’s Jon Heyman put down a four-year, $48MM estimate, and The Athletic’s Keith Regulation pegged him at $15-18MM annually over a time period of three to 4 years. To be clear, the intent in highlighting these predictions is to not criticize them — we’ve had greater than our share of misses on this regard — however relatively to spotlight that there was a variety of outcomes that onlookers considered as affordable with regard to Profar.
No matter contract Profar and Boras sought clearly hasn’t been there thus far. Brendan Kuty of The Athletic wrote this morning that Profar was at one level searching for a contract that’d pay him $10MM per season. It’s value emphasizing that Kuty doesn’t specify whether or not that’s a present asking value or whether or not it’s on a multi-year pact. Regardless, Profar turned down a $7.5MM deal to stay in San Diego, so it’s not an enormous shock to see there’s been a degree the place his camp was eyeing an eight-figure annual wage.
It’s arduous to think about Profar securing that $10MM AAV at this level, even on a one-year deal. Costs on current free-agent signings have been extra modest than early within the winter. Late signees like Matt Moore ($7.55MM), David Peralta ($6.5MM), Andrew Chafin ($6.25MM), Michael Fulmer ($4MM), Elvis Andrus ($3MM), Brad Hand ($2MM), Robbie Grossman ($2MM) and Will Smith ($1.5MM) have all are available in south of that $10MM sum. No free agent has reached a $10MM AAV since Carlos Correa finalized his deal to return to the Twins on Jan. 11.
Maybe Profar can but buck that development. He solely simply turned 30 and is coming off an honest 2022 season wherein he batted .243/.331/.391 with 15 dwelling runs and a career-high 36 doubles. He has above-average bat-to-ball abilities, has upped his stroll price over the previous couple seasons, and customarily graded as a mean or barely worse defender in left discipline for the Padres.
That final level, specifically, is value increasing on a bit. Many onlookers have puzzled why Profar hasn’t emerged as a extra viable possibility for the numerous groups in want of infield assist. Profar, in any case, was the sport’s No. 1 general prospect a decade in the past when he was rising by the Rangers’ ranks as a shortstop. Nevertheless, he’s since had a pair of shoulder surgical procedures, moved to the opposite aspect of the second base bag, and (throughout his time with the A’s) developed a case of the yips that finally pushed him to left discipline.
The A’s traded Profar to San Diego after only one yr, and the Padres gave him all of 197 innings at second base from 2020-22 — none of which got here this previous season. The Friars had been shorthanded sufficient within the infield that they signed Robinson Cano after he was launched by the Mets on the heels of a .195/.233/.268 exhibiting. That they had been content material to provide that model of Cano 40 innings at second base however didn’t transfer Profar into the infield isn’t precisely a ringing endorsement of his potential to play the place.
At this level, it’s arduous to think about Profar something apart from a left fielder. He’s performed 156 innings of heart within the huge leagues (2020-21 in San Diego) and 208 innings in proper discipline (once more, 2020-21 with the Padres), however neither pattern drew robust and even common scores. Profar’s common dash pace, per Statcast, was within the thirty second percentile of MLB gamers in 2022. His outfield jumps had been within the thirty seventh percentile, and his 87 mph common velocity on his throws from left discipline ranked ninety fifth amongst 156 certified outfielders. With restricted pace, below-average jumps and below-average arm energy, heart or proper may very well be a stretch for Profar.
Profar is a switch-hitter with barely better-than-average outcomes on the plate, modest defensive upside in left discipline and maybe an emergency infield possibility. He walks at a excessive clip and places the ball in play way more usually than the usual huge league hitter. The standard of that contact isn’t significantly robust (87.5 mph exit velocity, 34.3% hard-hit price, 4% barrel price), however there’s one thing to be stated for simply placing the ball in play — significantly as shifts are extra restricted in 2023 and past. A barely above-average offensive left fielder isn’t a star, nevertheless it’s a stable participant. Jean Segura has an analogous ability set within the infield, and he obtained $17MM on a two-year deal.
Even that kind of deal is likely to be out of attain at this level, however assuming Profar can nonetheless land a one- or two-year deal within the close to future, he can clearly assist a membership searching for some nook outfield reinforcements. MLBTR’s Anthony Franco took a look again in early January at which groups made essentially the most sense for Profar primarily based on their lack of left discipline manufacturing in 2022, nevertheless it looks as if an train value revisiting. The market and lots of rosters have modified since that point. Profar is now the one viable common remaining in free company, and several other groups that may’ve made sense as a suitor again on Jan. 2 look much less doubtless so as to add him now. The Rangers, as an illustration, have since signed Robbie Grossman. The Marlins moved Jazz Chisholm Jr. to heart and purchased Luis Arraez to play second, which suggests they’ll follow Jesus Sanchez and Bryan De La Cruz in left.
Let’s check out some golf equipment that also look like they may use in left discipline — and maybe why these groups haven’t but extra earnestly pursued Profar. He’d doubtless require someplace that may grant him principally common taking part in time, which makes the incumbent Padres a troublesome match as soon as Fernando Tatis Jr. returns and joins Juan Soto and Trent Grisham within the outfield.
Postseason Hopefuls
- Yankees: The Yankees are one of the oft-cited — if not essentially the most oft-cited — speculative matches for Profar. It’s not arduous to see why, contemplating their left fielders mixed for a .224/.312/.391 output final season. Oft-injured Aaron Hicks, nonetheless owed three years and $30.5MM on his contract, and younger Oswaldo Cabrera are the 2 favorites. The latter outproduced the previous by a large margin final season, however Hicks’ contract will in all probability get him one other look. The Yankees are loath to step into the fourth and last luxury-tax tier, nevertheless, and signing Profar (or simply about anybody, actually) will put them into that bracket and include a 90% dollar-for-dollar hit on any contract. There’s additionally no clear indication that Profar is a large improve over in-house choices. His .243/.331/.391 slash line final yr isn’t that completely different from the .224/.312/.391 output for which the Yankees mixed. Sure, Profar’s numbers would in all probability tick up a bit taking part in his dwelling video games at Yankee Stadium as an alternative of Petco Park. However even the Yankees’ tepid left discipline manufacturing final yr was good for a 103 wRC+; Profar was at 110 himself.
- Braves: Atlanta’s left fielders hit .238/.285/.431 in 2022, and that features a mixed 175 productive plate appearances from Adam Duvall, Robbie Grossman and William Contreras, none of whom are on the staff any longer. Veterans Marcell Ozuna (.226/.274/.413 in 2022) and Eddie Rosario (.212/.259/.328) are the first choices right here, with Sam Hilliard, Jordan Luplow, Eli White and non-roster invitees Kevin Pillar and Magneuris Sierra offering depth. There’s clearly room for an improve, however the Braves are paying Ozuna and Rosario a mixed $27MM in 2023 and doubtless don’t wish to signal a 3rd left fielder so as to add to that sum. Extra broadly, the Braves simply haven’t spent a lot of something in free company this winter; their lone huge roster splash was a commerce bringing Sean Murphy in from the A’s. They’re into the primary tier of luxurious territory, so Profar would value them 20% penalty on prime of his contract.
- Rays: Tampa Bay has been on the lookout for a left-handed bat for a lot of the winter. Profar would assist to stability out the lineup, doubtless splitting time with Randy Arozarena in left discipline and at designated hitter. That might lower into Harold Ramirez’s taking part in time or push him to first base extra usually, with Yandy Diaz sliding again to 3rd (on the expense of Isaac Paredes). As with most Rays strikes, it’d require an entire lot of transferring components and sure push some MLB-worthy bats off the roster and into the higher minors to function depth within the occasion of accidents. Profar’s offensive upside is restricted, so the Rays in all probability really feel assured they will match it with in-house choices. The doubtless price ticket hurts as effectively.
- Rangers: The Rangers already signed Grossman, so maybe they’ve little interest in including one other outfielder. Grossman’s not a transparent on a regular basis possibility in left discipline, although, and heart fielder Leody Taveras is just a little banged up, which might push Adolis Garcia from proper to heart early within the season. If Texas had a transparent possibility at DH, this wouldn’t work as effectively, however they don’t. The Rangers might add Profar, go along with him/Taveras/Garcia throughout the outfield when everybody’s at full energy, and use Grossman as a reserve nook outfielder and part-time DH.
Rebuilding Golf equipment
- Royals: Kansas Metropolis doesn’t have a single established outfielder on the roster. They’ll go along with a mixture of Edward Olivares, Kyle Isbel, Nate Eaton, catcher/outfielder MJ Melendez, nook bat Hunter Dozier and, as soon as wholesome, former prime prospect Drew Waters. Olivares, Isbel, Eaton, Melendez and Waters all have minor league choices remaining. Non-roster vets like Franmil Reyes and Jackie Bradley Jr. might finally affect this group, too, however there’s room for a stable veteran proper now. Then once more, the Royals waited till they’d cleared the salaries of Adalberto Mondesi and Michael A. Taylor in respective trades with the Crimson Sox and Twins earlier than they even introduced righty Zack Greinke again on a one-year, $8.5MM contract. They might not wish to or have possession permission to signal one other free agent with a notable wage.
- Reds: The Reds will cycle by Wil Myers, TJ Friedl, Jake Fraley, Will Benson, Nick Solak, Stuart Fairchild and maybe non-roster veteran Chad Pinder within the outfield corners this season. Myers will see his share of time at first base, too, as Joey Votto recovers from 2022 shoulder surgical procedure. Friedl and significantly Fraley hit effectively sufficient final yr that it’s comprehensible if Cincinnati desires to get them some further appears to be like, however Fraley has been on the IL 5 occasions up to now three seasons, together with a 60-day IL stint final yr for knee troubles. Middle fielder Nick Senzel has additionally had repeated well being troubles. Signing Profar deepens the lineup and provides a possible deadline chip for a rebuilding Cincinnati membership, however the Reds have spent below $14MM in free company and doubtless view Myers because the lone corner-outfield addition they’d want to make.
- Tigers: The Detroit outfield consists largely of rebound candidates, the place every of Akil Baddoo, Austin Meadows and prime prospect Riley Greene will search for higher ends in 2023 than that they had in 2022. Twenty-five-year-old Kerry Carpenter will even get his share of alternative after a blasting 36 homers between the upper-minors and MLB. Reserve possibility Matt Vierling can and can at occasions deal with all three outfield spots. From a depth standpoint, prospects Parker Meadows (Austin’s youthful brother) and Justyn-Henry Malloy might each attain the massive leagues in 2023, however Meadows hasn’t performed above Double-A and Malloy has solely eight video games there.
Realistically, you might squint and shoehorn Profar onto a lot of groups. He’s not going to be so extremely compensated that he couldn’t be pushed to a bench position finally and even traded, and sufficient groups have at the very least one shaky possibility within the outfield corners that you might justify signing him as an improve. At this level, it might take a spring damage to actually inspire a staff to signal him at an honest wage, although.
The opposite aspect at play right here is the looming World Baseball Traditional. Profar, a local of Curacao, is suiting up for the Netherlands and will look to make use of the match to showcase himself for MLB golf equipment. The WBC will give him some reps to assist prepare for the season, and it’s potential {that a} huge league staff will undergo an outfield damage whereas the match is ongoing. If that occurs, Profar might pitch himself as a game-ready substitute who might be a part of up with a brand new staff and be able to step proper onto the Opening Day roster.
