Again in September, I made my preseason predictions for 2023. With the season at its midpoint, I’ve seemed again to see what I received proper and what I received mistaken (conclusion: no one’s excellent).
Finest workforce to not make the playoffs
Preseason decide: Pittsburgh Steelers
I’m sticking with the Steelers. Their very good protection nonetheless means they’re removed from a nasty workforce, however their terrible offense means they’ll slip out of the wildcard spot they currently occupy.
The Steelers are who we thought they have been: a flawed workforce being propped up by a top quality protection in a season of collapsing offensive production across the league. On any given week, the Steelers can beat anybody. Their go rush is among the many finest within the league. And now that the workforce have handed taking part in time to gifted rookie Joey Porter Jr, hiding, as a lot as doable, the fossilized Patrick Peterson, they’ve sufficient protection chops on the back-end, too.
The problems are on offense (enjoyable truth: Texans quarterback CJ Stroud has thrown extra profession landing passes (14) in eight video games than Steelers QB Kenny Pickett (13) has in 21 begins). We’re approaching the mutiny stage of the Matt Canada period. He cycled via seven jobs in faculty soccer in 9 years earlier than making his approach as much as the professionals, every cease following a well-recognized sample: grand statements of innovation adopted by a thudding realization that the majority of his offense is nonsense.
Even by Canada’s requirements, this season has been a failure. Pittsburgh lead the league in three-and-outs, failing to select up a primary down on 47% of their drives. There’s no run recreation, Canada has struggled to get the workforce’s playmakers concerned and Pickett has regressed. In the RBSDM composite, the dorkiest but in addition most in-depth quarterback measurement, Pickett ranks thirty first amongst eligible gamers, forward of solely, yep, Zach Wilson. Pickett was by no means going to be a game-breaker within the NFL, however any probability he has at being a reliable starter is being harmed by Canada.
Catastrophe ready to occur …
Preseason decide: Russell Wilson, Denver Broncos
It feels foolish, on reflection, that the Las Vegas Raiders weren’t the apparent decide right here. Josh McDaniels confirmed no indicators of studying from his time in Denver. McDaniels spent the 12 years between head teaching jobs evaluating his time with the Broncos and appeared to conclude that everybody else was the issue. Which is why he’s 20-33 all-time as a head coach and 12-29 in his final 41 video games.
MVP
Preseason decide: Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars
Midseason decide: Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens
Would anybody like to say this 12 months’s MVP award? Sometimes, it goes to a quarterback with one of the best narrative. Both they’re a contemporary face, a resurgent star, or somebody who has been missed for too lengthy. No one slots comfortably into a kind of camps this season.
Lawrence and the Jags ought to win the AFC South, however his performances haven’t been constant or eye-popping sufficient to make a powerful case. Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts haven’t been at their supernova finest this 12 months, whereas Josh Allen continues to frustrate. Joe Burrow’s early-season damage dominated him out earlier than he might even get out of the blocks, and Brock Purdy’s midseason stumble has made his marketing campaign a non-starter.
Jackson, then, is the main candidate in the mean time. The Ravens are essentially the most overwhelming workforce within the NFL in 2023, outpacing everybody else in whichever metric you select. They’re high in DVOA, EPA per play and level differential.
Loads of the credit score for that falls on the protection – and the wizardry of coordinator Mike Macdonald. However Jackson is taking part in the most refined football of his career, main eligible quarterbacks in completion percentage and speeding yards. If Jackson can keep injury-free for the remainder of the season, he ought to win his second MVP.
Rookie to observe
Preseason decide: Bijan Robinson, Atlanta Falcons
Midseason decide: CJ Stroud and Will Anderson, Houston Texans
Robinson is an exhilarating participant however has been a little bit underused in Atlanta. In the meantime, gross sales of popcorn should be off the charts in Houston. They’ve the 2 most exhilarating rookies within the league (non-Bijan division). It’s uncommon for a workforce to hit on two first-round picks (though the Jets managed it last year). Nevertheless it’s uncommon to the purpose of absurdity to hit on a franchise quarterback and a franchise go rusher in the identical 12 months.
The majority of the main focus is, rightly, on Stroud. From the embers of the Deshaun Watson debacle, the Texans now have a quarterback they’ll construct round. Stroud isn’t only a star for the long run; he’s a star proper now.
However let’s not overlook about Anderson. He’s off to a Khalil Mack-like begin to his profession. He stirs up carnage on each down. He’s a dominant run defender who has cracked the High 20 as a go rusher. Anderson ranks 18th amongst all go rushers in strain fee v true go units. That won’t sound excessive, however few rookie go rushers cross that threshold of their debut 12 months, and infrequently, if ever, over the first-half of the season. The final two rookies to try this? Micah Parsons and Nick Bosa.
Division champions
AFC North – Preseason decide: Cincinnati Bengals. Midseason decide: Baltimore Ravens.
The Bengals have been hampered by Joe Burrow’s early season damage struggles. He’s since recovered however the Ravens are essentially the most full workforce in soccer and will likely be exhausting to catch.
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AFC East – Preseason pick: New York Jets. Midseason pick: Miami Dolphins.
Aaron Rodgers’s achilles injury blew up the Jets’ season, even with their formidable defense. Miami’s next five games are against the Raiders, the Jets (twice), the Commanders and the Titans. They could win all five and have the division wrapped up before they face the Bills in Week 17.
AFC West – Preseason pick: Kansas City Chiefs. Midseason pick: Kansas City Chiefs.
There are tricky games left on the schedule, but no one will catch the Chiefs.
AFC South – Preseason pick: Jacksonville Jaguars. Midseason pick: Jacksonville Jaguars.
The Texans are (rightly) the flavor of the month. But the Jaguars are still the best team in the division.
NFC North – Preseason pick: Detroit Lions. Midseason pick: Detroit Lions.
Do you believe in the Lions as a legitimate contender yet? You should.
NFC East – Preseason pick: Philadelphia Eagles. Midseason pick: Philadelphia Eagles.
Philly’s next four games: at the Chiefs, v the Bills, v the 49ers, at the Cowboys. Split those four, and the Eagles will be cruising to the NFC’s No 1 seed.
NFC West – Preseason pick: San Francisco 49ers. Midseason pick: San Francisco 49ers.
Some of the shine has come off the Niners over the past month. But they’re still the second-best team in the NFC.
NFC South – Preseason pick: New Orleans Saints. Midseason pick: New Orleans Saints.
The Saints are the best team of a bad bunch and have an easy schedule from here on out.
Wildcard teams
Preseason picks – AFC: Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, Baltimore Ravens. NFC: Dallas Cowboys, Green Bay Packers, Seattle Seahawks.
Midseason picks – AFC: Buffalo Bills, Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns. NFC: Seattle Seahawks, Dallas Cowboys, Minnesota Vikings.
The Browns’ defense is brilliant and should carry them to the playoffs if Deshaun Watson can be somewhere near average. In the NFC, the Vikings wildcard place says more about the conference’s lack of strong teams than Minnesota’s quality (it’s easy to cheer for Josh Dobbs though).
Super Bowl champions
Preseason pick: Cincinnati Bengals
Midseason pick: Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs’ issues on offense have been well documented. But Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid have a way of figuring out any teething issues by the time the postseason rolls around. The Chiefs have a top-five defense, the finest during the Mahomes-Reid partnership. A healthy Mahomes with a suffocating defense will be tough to stop in the postseason.
