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It’s frequent for our readers to ask which of the gamers who aren’t on this yr’s High 100 may grace subsequent yr’s. Who has an opportunity to actually escape? That is the piece for these readers, our “Picks to Click on,” the gut-feel guys we expect could make the 2023 High 100.
That is the fifth yr we’ve carried out this train at FanGraphs, and there are some guidelines. First, not one of the gamers you see under may have ever been a 50 FV or higher in any of our write-ups or rankings. Second, we are able to’t decide gamers who we’ve picked in prior years, however the different writers can. For example, Eric picked Wilman Diaz final yr, however he didn’t make the High 100. Eric can’t choose Diaz once more, however Kevin and/or Tess might in the event that they needed, although they’ve opted to not. Final yr, we determined to make this considerably aggressive to see which of us finally ends up being proper about probably the most gamers. Under is a short rundown of how the positioning’s writers have carried out since this piece turned part of Prospects Week; you possibly can click on the yr within the “Yr” column to entry that yr’s checklist. Our initials started showing subsequent to our picks in 2021, with an asterisk denoting the gamers we each chosen. (Within the desk, the format for that yr’s outcomes is “Kevin’s guys (mutual choice) Eric’s guys.”) We don’t depend “click on echoes,” guys who enter the 50 FV tier a number of years after they had been Picks to Click on, towards our totals. For instance, MJ Melendez was a 2018 Choose to Click on, however he didn’t enter the 50 FV tier till this offseason, so he doesn’t depend. Right here’s how we’ve fared previously:
Historic Picks to Click on
We’ve separated the gamers into teams or “sorts” to make the checklist a bit of extra digestible and to provide you some thought of the demographics we expect pop-up guys come from, which might assist you determine a few of your individual utilizing The Board. For gamers whose orgs we’ve got already coated this offseason, there’s a hyperlink to the relevant crew checklist the place yow will discover a full scouting report on that participant.
Promising Backstops
Drew Romo, C, Colorado Rockies (EL/KG) – Full Report
Endy Rodriguez, C, Pittsburgh Pirates (EL) – Full Report
Harry Ford, C, Seattle Mariners (TT)
Logan O’Hoppe, C, Philadelphia Phillies (TT) – Full Report
Romo has an enormous arm and has carried out higher from a bat-to-ball standpoint than we thought he would popping out of highschool, particularly in opposition to right-handed pitching. Rodriguez might slot in a number of of the classes you’re about to discover since his really feel to hit is his carrying device. A 2021 first-rounder, Ford notched 16 hits in 19 video games on the advanced, 10 of which went for extra-bases. He’s obtained plus pace and is likely to be a middle fielder if he isn’t a catcher. O’Hoppe has elite make-up along with a well-rounded toolset.
Shopping for the Bat
Dustin Harris, 3B/1B, Texas Rangers (TT)
Zack Gelof, 3B, Oakland Athletics (TT) – Full Report
Trey Sweeney, 3B, New York Yankees (KG) – Full Report
Lawerence Butler, 1B, Oakland Athletics (KG) – Full Report
Jairo Pomares, OF, San Francisco Giants (TT) – Full Report
Kyle Stowers, OF, Baltimore Orioles (TT) – Full Report
This group is usually comprised of well-rounded hitters who play nook positions, apart from Butler and Stowers, who traditionally have been power-over-hit sorts. Of these two, Butler is the yet one more prone to discover an additional gear by continued adjustment, whereas Stowers’ big, enjoyable hacks really feel like a cemented model. Harris hit 10 bombs with an .872 OPS at Low-A earlier than being promoted to Excessive-A, the place he hit 10 extra (and posted a 1.073 OPS) in half the variety of video games. In 110 video games throughout the 2 ranges, he additionally racked up 25 stolen bases and 21 doubles, and solely struck out 73 occasions. If he can polish his method and keep at third base, he’s wager to be on subsequent yr’s checklist. Gelof and his odd swing had an important instructs, and he’s a wonderful third base defender. Sweeney was 63rd on our 2021 Draft rankings, which was most likely too low, as he covers the entire plate and has sufficient energy to be harmful.
Swing Change Breakout Candidates
Pete Crow-Armstrong, CF, Chicago Cubs (KG/EL) – Full Report
Deyvison De Los Santos, 3B, Arizona Diamondbacks (EL) – Full Report
Johan Rojas, CF, Philadelphia Phillies (TT) – Full Report
Colt Keith, 3B, Detroit Tigers (KG) – Full Report
This group contains gamers who may already be strong huge leaguers given their present skills, however might develop into affect gamers if they’ll change the character and high quality of their contact. (This could additionally describe Garrett Mitchell, who Kevin picked final yr and would have once more if allowed.) Crow-Armstrong has already made a swing change, one which was evident in early-2022 backfield exercise. The brand new swing seems prefer it may higher allow him to catch fastballs on the prime of the zone, however we received’t know till play begins. De Los Santos has superb uncooked energy for his age however drives the ball into the bottom usually, and his epicurean method could also be uncovered on the higher ranges.
The “This Is What They Look Like” Group
Jose Salas, SS, Miami Marlins (TT)
Roderick Arias, SS, New York Yankees (TT) – Full Report
Cristian Hernandez, SS, Chicago Cubs (TT) – Full Report
Masyn Winn, SS/RHP, St. Louis Cardinals (TT)
Jose Ramos, CF, Los Angeles Dodgers (EL)
Everson Pereira, CF, New York Yankees (KG) – Full Report
Andrew Painter, SP, Philadelphia Phillies (KG) – Full Report
Cristhian Vaquero, CF, Washington Nationals (KG)
Salas, who may be within the “Simply Missed” Group, is a bodily, lefty-hitting shortstop with above-average bat pace and superior really feel for contact. Although his huge 2021 SLG% just isn’t emblematic of his precise uncooked energy, he has wanting swing and really feel for the barrel, projecting to have a balanced offensive skillset whereas he stays at brief. A two-way excessive schooler with an mid-90s fastball, Winn largely performed shortstop in 2021 and hit nicely sufficient for him to proceed creating as a two-way participant for now. He didn’t hit as nicely after a promotion to Excessive-A, battling secondary stuff, and he may finally find yourself completely on the mound, however for now he’s a 1-of-1 kind of prospect with among the best infield arms within the recreation. Ramos torched prolonged spring coaching and Complicated League ball in Arizona, the place he was a bit of older than loads of the opposite gamers. He was promoted to Rancho and stored hitting for big energy, however pitchers there began to get him to chase. The Dodgers fall instructs had been full of scouts (their group of gamers there was unbelievable, they usually’re deadline consumers in perpetuity) and Ramos lit it up once more, hitting big, all-fields tanks. Remember the fact that he’s Andy Pages‘ age however began 2021 two ranges under him. Vaquero, Washington’s $5 million novice signee from January, has the Vitruvian Heart Fiedler’s construct, can completely fly, and has huge energy for his age.
Epic Bounce Again
Osiris Johnson, 2B/CF, Miami Marlins (EL)
Noah Song, RHP, Boston Crimson Sox (EL)
Gunnar Hoglund, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays (EL) – Full Report
Ty Madden, RHP, Detroit Tigers (KG) – Full Report
Nick Nastrini, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers (EL)
Johnson had a horrible begin at Low-A Jupiter, placing out in almost half his at-bats in the course of the first few weeks of the season. He was despatched down and rebounded on the advanced (he had a 32% barrel fee down there) and earned a visit again as much as full-season ball. He hit a decent .261/.339/.342 on his second strive, fairly good for a 20-year-old who had missed 2019 and ’20. Johnson has big bat pace, his swing is geared for carry, and he has expertise at a number of up-the-middle positions. If he might be extra selective, he might escape. Music had first spherical expertise at Navy however his service dedication, and unfortunately-timed modifications to guidelines round exemptions for army athletes, pushed him to the fourth spherical. He might have a path again into baseball this yr and we wouldn’t be shocked if this man has stayed in baseball form. He might transfer in a short time by the Sox system in a late-inning bullpen function. Nastrini handled a number of novice accidents, together with TOS surgical procedure as a freshman at UCLA, and he couldn’t get out of the primary inning in both of his closing two pre-draft collegiate begins, however he pitched very nicely within the California Collegiate League simply earlier than the 2021 draft. He flashed plus-plus stuff in the course of the late summer time and fall with the Dodgers but in addition had durations of wildness.
Nicely-Rounded Up-the-Center Prospects
Aeverson Arteaga, SS, San Francisco Giants (KG/TT) – Full Report
Sal Frelick, CF, Milwaukee Brewers (TT/KG) – Full Report
Matt McLain, 2B, Cincinnati Reds (EL)
Ezequiel Tovar, SS, Colorado Rockies (EL) – Full Report
McLain (the Reds’ first rounder out of UCLA) and Tovar each have plus hit instruments, fringy energy, and play up the center. McLain has expertise in middle discipline and may find yourself taking part in a number of positions and be finest at second base, whereas Tovar is a plus glove at brief.
Simply Outdoors
Michael Harris II, CF, Atlanta Braves (EL)
Kyle Bradish, RHP, Baltimore Orioles (KG) – Full Report
Taj Bradley, RHP, Tampa Bay Rays (TT)
Ryne Nelson, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks (EL) – Full Report
This group was barely exterior the present High 100, and every of us thinks our picks right here will test one final field and transfer onto the checklist later this yr. Bradish and Nelson are on the starter/reliever line. Bradley, simply 20, struck out greater than 30% of the batters he confronted in 2021 (Low- and Excessive-A mixed), with a extra refined fastball form than he had in years previous and slider. He might find yourself the following in a protracted line of current Rays pitching improvement success tales if he polishes his splitter. Cristian Pache and Drew Waters each plateaued on the higher ranges partly as a result of they’ve aggressive approaches. Harris can also be on this vein. There are up-the-middle gamers with approaches like his, however we’ve begun to attend till they carry out on the higher ranges, moderately than assume they’ll like we did with Pache and Waters.
Deep Cuts
Jarlin Susana, RHP, San Diego Padres (KG)
Marco Raya, RHP, Minnesota Twins (EL)
Xzavion Curry, RHP, Cleveland Guardians (EL)
Logan Allen, LHP, Cleveland Guardians (EL)
Carter Baumler, RHP, Baltimore Orioles (KG) – Full Report
Susana is a strapping 6-foot-6, 235 kilos and is just a bit bit shy of his 18th birthday. He’s already sitting within the mid-90s and has a nasty slider. Raya, an athletic over-slot excessive schooler the Twins chosen within the 2020 draft, nonetheless hasn’t thrown a pitch in an affiliated recreation however he’s been sitting 95 mph in bullpens, has a possible plus-plus breaking ball, and received’t flip 20 till August. Curry instructions a fastball that’s unimaginable for hitters to get on prime of, whereas Allen is a basic pitchability lefty. Each are potential low-variance 50s for subsequent yr.
Late-Inning Relievers
Peyton Battenfield, RHP, Cleveland Guardians (KG)
Ryan Pepiot, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers (EL)
Hans Crouse, RHP, Philadelphia Phillies (TT) – Full Report
Nick Mikolajchak, RHP, Cleveland Guardians (EL)
Jared Solomon, RHP, Cincinnati Reds (EL)
Ken Waldichuk, LHP, New York Yankees (EL) – Full Report
A number of members of this group are at present starters however we expect all of them may very well be high-leverage relievers on the drop of a hat. Battenfield has a vertically-oriented fastball/curveball assault, and his slider has distinct form from his curve, wanting like a cutter loads of the time. He also can create motion on his changeup. Sitting 92-93 mph as a starter, he may very well be an important multi-inning reliever in a short time. Pepiot has typical command-oriented reduction danger, however an unbelievable changeup and a tough cutter/slider. Crouse’s funk and moxie match within the bullpen. Mikolajchak has 4 pitches however leans closely on his fastball (which has big carry) and tilting slider. He’s the lone relief-only identify right here. Solomon appeared poised to interrupt out in 2020, however then he blew out and wanted Tommy John. He has been within the mid-90s within the bullpen.
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