The primary playoff sport of Tremendous Wild Card Weekend options the Cleveland Browns and Houston Texans, and our staff of betting specialists have made all kinds of participant prop bets for this matchup.
Will Joe Flacco’s magic proceed within the postseason, and the way will C.J. Stroud carry out in his first profession playoff begin? We break all of it down as we give out our high Browns vs. Texans participant prop bets.
Prime Browns vs. Texans Participant Prop Bets
Joe Flacco Over 268.5 Passing Yards (-115 at ESPN BET)
Ben Rolfe: Listed below are Flacco’s passing yards in his final 4 video games: 309, 368, 374, 311.
Included in that’s 368 yards at a mean of 8.8 yards per try with a passer ranking of 96.1. The Texans have been good towards opposing QBs within the final two weeks, however they’ve had their troubles towards some good passing video games and a few shocking ones.
This season, the Texans have allowed over 300 passing yards to the Browns, Jacksonville Jaguars (Trevor Lawrence), Cincinnati Bengals (Joe Burrow), New Orleans Saints (Derek Carr), and Atlanta Falcons (Desmond Ridder). Flacco has each probability of doing that once more this week to a staff permitting a mean of 253.4 passing yards per sport to opponents.
Kareem Hunt Underneath 24.5 Speeding Yards (-110 at DraftKings)
Kyle Soppe: Fading each backfields (or at the very least a chunk of each) is one thing I not often do as a result of they aren’t correlated. That stated, “not often” isn’t “by no means,” and the numbers level strongly on this route.
The Browns haven’t been shy about betting on Flacco to raise their 2023 ceiling, as they’ve the second-highest cross charge over expectation for the reason that veteran took the reins.
In a matchup towards the second-best yards-per-carry protection in a weatherproof spot at NRG Stadium, why wouldn’t we count on Cleveland to open issues up on this spot?
Kareem Hunt (battling a groin damage that value him observe time early within the week) doesn’t have a 10-yard rush since Nov. 19, and Cleveland working backs as a complete have misplaced yardage on 13.1% of carries.
MORE: Browns vs. Texans Prediction, Odds, and Picks for Wild Card Weekend
The veteran RB hasn’t had greater than 12 carries in a sport in over two months, a development he may need to reverse on this matchup.
One for the highway in terms of Hunt:
- Hunt: 23.7% of carries have come within the purple zone
- Jerome Ford: 7.8% of carries have come within the purple zone
These carries maintain fantasy soccer worth, however they aren’t a serious concern for me when concentrating on yardage props.
C.J. Stroud Over 242.5 Passing Yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Brian Blewis: This line is extremely low due to the matchup towards an elite Browns protection. However this protection didn’t journey properly this season, as they allowed 29.6 factors per sport on the highway, tied with the Broncos for essentially the most within the NFL.
In the meantime, this Browns protection is dealing with a quarterback in C.J. Stroud who has excelled at house. In eight house begins, Stroud threw for 310.8 yards per sport, 17 TDs, and averaged 8.94 yards per try.
Stroud solely went beneath this prop in two house video games this previous season — Week 6 towards the Saints and a 26-3 blowout win over the Titans. Contemplating the worth we’re getting due to the matchup, the entire traits say that is an overcorrection.
Devin Singletary Underneath 64.5 Speeding Yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Soppe: For the season, solely 39% of yards gained towards the Browns have come on the bottom, the fifth-lowest mark within the NFL this season. Devin Singletary has taken over Houston’s backfield from Dameon Pierce, however are we certain he’s matchup-proof to the extent that sportsbooks are giving him credit score for?
This season, Singletary doesn’t have a carry of at the very least 25 yards, making a single splash play unlikely to undo this guess.
MORE: NFL Wild Card Round Predictions and Picks Against the Spread
My religion within the Browns’ entrance 4 has me pondering they’re making contact with Singletary across the line of scrimmage, and with the Texans’ lead again averaging simply 1.6 yards per carry after contact — a charge that ranks behind luminaries like Miles Sanders and Joshua Kelley — effectivity is one thing that I’m very happy to guess towards.
Dalton Schultz Underneath 41.5 Receiving Yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Blewis: Dalton Schultz has gone over this yardage line in three of his 4 final video games, however this looks as if the best alternative to promote.
Schultz goes up towards a Browns protection that was by far the perfect at defending opposing tight ends this season — permitting six fewer targets and 162 fewer yards than the next-best staff.
When these two groups final performed one another again in Week 16 (with Davis Mills at QB), Schultz had eight catches for 61 yards. Contemplating his 11 targets have been tied for a season excessive and greater than the earlier three weeks mixed when Stroud was lively, this efficiency looks as if a complete anomaly.
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